MAY - Melbana Energy

[nztx]

We have a discovery and a big one at that (significant global discovery) and yes we have a set back but they will work out a way to get the oil out in time.
Give me the current situation over a duster and I know where I would rather be.

Agree with that too .. a good buying opportunity IMO

[Paddie]

Agree with that too .. a good buying opportunity IMO

I couldn't agree more, I will be watching closely tomorrow, if the Dow has a bad day I am sure that there will be some cheap shares on offer.

[JBmurc]

Yes dam it ... 20c seems so long ago ... looks like the Monster Billion+ barrel Discovery needs better testing equipment worse case they might have to plug the High pressure primary lower zone and just produce from the upper levels .... ?? still many years of production that will fund future development re-drill of the primary deeper target ...

Overall results bode well for the new "Zapato" drill ... IMHO we have discovered a Massive Kitchen of O&G ... early days that years ahead will be looked back on as a Gift Buying chance that will last for upwards of the next 4 wks IMHO ...

I'm happy to continue to Hold JULY-AUG we will have "Zapato" drilling interval Oil Gas show results ...... hopefully timeframe on re-entry of Alameda-1 and plans for commercial sales from the upper Amistad zone .... they could have muti wells flowing 0000's bbls oil per day later this year ....

NET mean 35mmbbls MAY (@ $20bbl AUD free-cashflow =$700mill AUD)

$32mill in cash end of MAR22..

MAY-MD Quote
"We’ll all have to be a little more patient, therefore, but gladly accept that the reasons for the challenges we faced in drilling Alameda-1 give us good reason to be optimistic about our future in Cuba. We are now revising our plans for testing in Alameda-1 whilst also preparing for the start of drilling at Zapato-1.”
https://www.upstreamonline.com/explo...ll/2-1-1208383

[JBmurc]

Great post from HC poster that knows his stuff >>

In short a vertical well using high pressure casing, try to avoid deviations as this will help mitigate issues. A bigger rig may also be required. There might be room to talk to US operators who have such a rig, the US will work with Cuba on issues of energy security and safety.

The Alemada-1 well was quite deviated in order to intersect both deeper objectives. I suspect the deviation whilst designed to be a good exploration type design was drilled based on offset data on pressure regimes in Cuba. So the formation pressures were quite higher then expected and this resulted in the inability to safely flow test. Which implies each time they tried to open it up the pressure spiked and it was a struggle to bring it back under control.

I suspect the lower sheet targets will exhibit similar pressure regime issues. The next well is a single target well so it shouldn’t be as deviated, with a 1km vertical relief it’s another monster.

The company can release updated prospective resource at Alemada and Marti and tell holders of the API of the oil recovered. With the net/gross and pressure it is enough to update those figures that were per drill.

A presentation to give holders more insight on this would be good, also showing the upgraded prospect portfolio of block 9 given the results to date.

This wouldn’t be too much to expect. Some more information to alleviate concerns is always helpful.

[nztx]

Great post from HC poster that knows his stuff >>

In short a vertical well using high pressure casing, try to avoid deviations as this will help mitigate issues. A bigger rig may also be required. There might be room to talk to US operators who have such a rig, the US will work with Cuba on issues of energy security and safety.

The Alemada-1 well was quite deviated in order to intersect both deeper objectives. I suspect the deviation whilst designed to be a good exploration type design was drilled based on offset data on pressure regimes in Cuba. So the formation pressures were quite higher then expected and this resulted in the inability to safely flow test. Which implies each time they tried to open it up the pressure spiked and it was a struggle to bring it back under control.

I suspect the lower sheet targets will exhibit similar pressure regime issues. The next well is a single target well so it shouldn’t be as deviated, with a 1km vertical relief it’s another monster.

The company can release updated prospective resource at Alemada and Marti and tell holders of the API of the oil recovered. With the net/gross and pressure it is enough to update those figures that were per drill.

A presentation to give holders more insight on this would be good, also showing the upgraded prospect portfolio of block 9 given the results to date.

This wouldn’t be too much to expect. Some more information to alleviate concerns is always helpful.

A good post that one over yonder too.. MAY appear to have been very fiercely oversold on Thursday's
announcement(s) perhaps unfairly - but in view of current market not unexpected.

There may be a claw back of lost ground in coming days leading ahead too - ASX can be very volatile
A whole different kettle of fish from NZX in a sheltered backwater

[JBmurc]

Yes not being able to give us a Flow-test spooked retailer S/Hs ...I see JP Morgan broker added more along with other insto's ..

MAY MD pretty clear-And I fully understand safety first when we are dealing with such a Large Oil system I'm sure in hindsight they wished they had a Larger rig ... but I guess onshore you don't often discovery these anymore ?

Melbana Energy’s Executive Chairman, Andrew Purcell, commented: “Our Alameda-1
exploration well has delivered results considerably greater than our predrill expectations.

Having found three significant and highly energised intervals of net hydrocarbon pay we were naturally keen
to try and get some data on the oil’s composition and the likely performance of the reservoirs as soon
as possible, but this will now have to wait for the formal testing program given that management of
the high formation pressures made it complicated to repurpose our exploration well into a testing
environment.

We’ll all have to be a little more patient, therefore, but gladly accept that the reasons
for the challenges we faced in drilling Alameda-1 give us good reason to be optimistic about our
future in Cuba. We are now revising our plans for testing in Alameda-1 whilst also preparing for the
start of drilling at Zapato-1.”

[JBmurc]

Goldman Sachs expressed optimism that the industry has reached a turning point in the oil and gas capex cycle, with seven years of declining activity about to come to an end. Goldman reckons that oil and gas capex could triple from recent lows......


Oil price outlook--- US shale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FZ3pbKXBx8


In the clip as the analyst stated ...pre-China Lockdown OIL demand was back to pre-COVID levels .... so watch out when CHINA opens back up .. Investment lagging badly when need BILLIONS invested ASAP or we will see $150bbl+ 2H22 IMHO

And we have MAY with a major discovery the market has cooled on along with the general market >>BUT I think we will have a slingshot move in MAY when #1 we get a total prospective resource for the net 300m oil interval drilled ... and the new well hits Oil shows in the 2nd planned exploration one targeting one very large structure ...

[JBmurc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE-tdBHzO8I

Investor Stream chats with Melbana Energy (ASX:MAY) Executive Chairman Andrew Purcell (May 5 2022)

[JBmurc]

Up 25% for the day .... with much more to come...

I like to look over the last presentation when I'm wondering about buying more shares >>>>
https://www.melbana.com/site/cpfile/...rateFlyer2.pdf

[nztx]

Up 10%, then back down to hold it's own today

Can't be too bad given what others have seen in way of a trimming