Just wondering, has anyone actually read the listing document?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...864/318680.pdf
There is a lot of talk about the products and website and All Blacks here but I don't see much discussion regarding the numbers which is what's going to matter at the end of the day.
Let's look at the money the founders actually have invested in this enterprise -
they say around 2 million dollars... Nothing at all to actually quantify this but let's go with it. For that they have around 225 million shares or 61% of the company.
So their effective price is 10 times less than the current price you're buying in at. In reality it will be less than that, probably
between half and 0.8 cents a share.
Anything wrong with that? Not necessarily, but I haven't read one comment regarding the insiders lock up period before they can start getting a
1000% return on their investment selling to you guys. Now lets look at Kerr specifically, he is earning his entire investment back in this enterprise in wages from it in 12 Months. I'm picking that the others will also be paying off large percentages of their investment in the enterprise from the enterprise.
Now if they can take it to $1 then we're all cool with that eh. Lets have a think about that.
To get to $1 that will mean at least a $400 million dollar company (with the coming dilution and options it will in reality be much bigger than this). Is that rational or realistic to just think they can conjure this up?
Trilogy was already a massive success with 10 million dollars in sales when it was sold in 2010 to the people you're all going on about for, wait for it,
10 million dollars. Or ONE times sales. There were some Ecoya shares thrown in later but essentially it was around 10/15 million...
There is no comparison between Trilogy when this lot took it over and Me today. None.
Your guys are currently paying around 40 times sales, some of you have paid over 50 times.
What does a business have to earn to justify a market capitalisation of $400 million dollars? How much does it have to sell and what are it's margins expected to be?
So if you're buying here at around $33 million, what are you getting for your money? You're getting a few million in cash which the founders are quietly feasting off in the background (while waiting for more cash to come in from fresh capital) and you're getting hopes and dreams.
Remember the Trilogy story is vastly different to this.
The founders are not financially aligned with you and don't really have skin in the game. If I could buy in alongside them at sub 1c a share I might have a punt, knowing that's exactly what it would be. But all you're doing here is giving them a 10 bagger for nothing.
You'd all be much better off together putting in 32 million cash and forming you're own business. As that's what you're doing, you're paying 32 (many of you MUCH more) for this shell of a company with nothing but hopes.
In this market anything of course can happen, you could make or lose a lot of money. But that's not investing, you can do the same in the casino and it will be more fun.
Come on guys, read the documents and look at the numbers.
Originally Posted by SailorRob
Just wondering, has anyone actually read the listing document? http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...864/318680.pdf
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