NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[Crypto Crude]

Just an update...
My real estate deal fell through and I haven't been looking... for now im ok about it i'm just going to enjoy the bear market on the sidelines and make some decisions later in the year.......... I got fairly well prepared for the bearmarket...

[kiora]

Just an update...
My real estate deal fell through and I haven't been looking... for now im ok about it i'm just going to enjoy the bear market on the sidelines and make some decisions later in the year.......... I got fairly well prepared for the bearmarket...

Thanks for the update CC
Better luck for the house buying soon

[JBmurc]

Just an update...
My real estate deal fell through and I haven't been looking... for now im ok about it i'm just going to enjoy the bear market on the sidelines and make some decisions later in the year.......... I got fairly well prepared for the bearmarket...

Not a silly Idea to sit on the sidelines .. NZ Property could well continue down ...might even pick-up a deal at a Morg sale..

[clearasmud]

Don't do mortgagee sales, you're possibly getting involved in another's misery.

[SBQ]

Ireland has a DTI limit of 3.5 times income. They learnt from their housing market crash, we didn’t learn from theirs or the one in the US.

Let me ask you the most basic question. When has NZ house prices crashed to the levels we've seen in the US or abroad??? During the GFC in 2008 where house prices were being wiped out and record # of banks going bankrupt, NZ house prices barely dropped over that same period and we've only see 2 casualties (Hanover Finance and Southern Canterbury Finance?).

NZ has never seen a bubble burst to epic proportions like America has seen. In fact, NZ reals estate is one of the key pillar's of our gov't to keep it afloat regardless of the outcome. Like most things, our gov't tends to regulate everything so; I stand strong that NZ houses will lose half of it's value like i've seen in the GFC. Remember, the reason for housing property being the key pillar to our NZ gov't concern is because over 2/3rds of NZ's wealth is tied into real estate. This is a similar model to in China, but a very different model to in N. America where 2/3rds of the wealth is invested in their stock market or businesses. Countries that invest into economic productivity into business and equities have a higher economic output GDP/capita than countries like NZ that invest in hard assets like houses and land. This is a proven fact and why the NZD always trades weaker to the USD. This is exemplified in NZ's lower standard of living when compared to countries that invest away from real estate. Anotherwords, the NZ gov't knows that we can't afford a massacre in our real estate market because it's all what we have.

[stoploss]

Let me ask you the most basic question. When has NZ house prices crashed to the levels we've seen in the US or abroad??? During the GFC in 2008 where house prices were being wiped out and record # of banks going bankrupt, NZ house prices barely dropped over that same period and we've only see 2 casualties (Hanover Finance and Southern Canterbury Finance?).

NZ has never seen a bubble burst to epic proportions like America has seen. In fact, NZ reals estate is one of the key pillar's of our gov't to keep it afloat regardless of the outcome. Like most things, our gov't tends to regulate everything so; I stand strong that NZ houses will lose half of it's value like i've seen in the GFC. Remember, the reason for housing property being the key pillar to our NZ gov't concern is because over 2/3rds of NZ's wealth is tied into real estate. This is a similar model to in China, but a very different model to in N. America where 2/3rds of the wealth is invested in their stock market or businesses. Countries that invest into economic productivity into business and equities have a higher economic output GDP/capita than countries like NZ that invest in hard assets like houses and land. This is a proven fact and why the NZD always trades weaker to the USD. This is exemplified in NZ's lower standard of living when compared to countries that invest away from real estate. Anotherwords, the NZ gov't knows that we can't afford a massacre in our real estate market because it's all what we have.

SBQ you are making sweeping statements as fact which are not true .
There were probably close to 20 finance companies that went under after the GFC not just 2 .
The NZD pre 1980 was stronger than the USD so it is not correct to say “it’s a proven fact it always trades stronger than the NZD” when making general statements about the USD.
https://www.fma.govt.nz/news-and-res...any-collapses/

[SBQ]

SBQ you are making sweeping statements as fact which are not true .
There were probably close to 20 finance companies that went under after the GFC not just 2 .
The NZD pre 1980 was stronger than the USD so it is not correct to say “it’s a proven fact it always trades stronger than the NZD” when making general statements about the USD.
https://www.fma.govt.nz/news-and-res...any-collapses/

You and the FMA are leading a false narrative. How many of them are directly involved into lending mortages? Many or most of these finance companies were involved in other deceptive lending practices that were not tied to houses (ie. commercial lending to business, leveraged equity lending, etc). The banks that went bust during the GFC in the US went under solely because house prices crashed. We are talking many areas where house prices went into 'negative equity leading to short sales' which is a term that banks went bust in the US because their asset holding was worth less than the liability. Imagine lending $500K on a home when after 1 or 2 years, it only had a market value of less than $50K (ie. Detroit). There were no controls in place to the practice of 'sub-prime' lending. People don't understand what sub-prime means which is the lending of $ at LOWER than prime rates, most went to those that lied on their mortgage application. Let me add in NZ, we never had a system where banks could lend under such scenarios. This is shown but the low # of mortgagee sales during that period in NZ and if you ask any economist critic during that time, they said "On most part, NZ had been insulated from the GFC banking insolvencies in the US". Likewise in Canada, during that period the Canadian banks were rock solid and because of their strict regulations and lending requirements, house prices didn't crash anywhere near next door. I can assure again, these are not sweeping statements.

Regarding to currencies. You're making a far fetch reference period pre 1980s. In fact I would say gong back +40 years is not even relevant. The reason why the USD has maintained it's strength is due to the Bretton Woods Agreement where countries went off the gold standard. The US was able to unlock wealth by not being tied to gold and instead, tie values based on fiat currency and capitalistic expansion. No longer countries would depend on their currency based on the amount of gold reserve held at the central bank. The free flow of investments wealth went to the USD every decade after. This is the model we are working today and i'm afraid, because of NZ's limited visions with lack of diversification (having 2/3rds of the wealth tied in real estate), this can only translate into a lower standard of living and a continue weaker currency than the benchmark USD. Small countries like Switzerland and Singapore, have maintain their currency strong to the USD... because they don't have a culture that puts investments into houses as a higher priority. The UN has made it clear to NZ many times, we don't have a program to address our housing problem. Decade after decade, we've failed to keep housing affordable, we have tax laws (as Bernard Hickey had constantly wrote) that prefers investments into houses over investment into business or into the stock market. There was a link I posted pages ago on this thread from Bernard showing the UN report that countries that have more social mobility have great GDP/capita output. If the riches in NZ own most of their assets in houses, then that is exactly that - creates an environment of low social equity.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Let me ask you the most basic question. When has NZ house prices crashed to the levels we've seen in the US or abroad??? During the GFC in 2008 where house prices were being wiped out and record # of banks going bankrupt, NZ house prices barely dropped over that same period and we've only see 2 casualties (Hanover Finance and Southern Canterbury Finance?).

NZ has never seen a bubble burst to epic proportions like America has seen. In fact, NZ reals estate is one of the key pillar's of our gov't to keep it afloat regardless of the outcome. Like most things, our gov't tends to regulate everything so; I stand strong that NZ houses will lose half of it's value like i've seen in the GFC. Remember, the reason for housing property being the key pillar to our NZ gov't concern is because over 2/3rds of NZ's wealth is tied into real estate. This is a similar model to in China, but a very different model to in N. America where 2/3rds of the wealth is invested in their stock market or businesses. Countries that invest into economic productivity into business and equities have a higher economic output GDP/capita than countries like NZ that invest in hard assets like houses and land. This is a proven fact and why the NZD always trades weaker to the USD. This is exemplified in NZ's lower standard of living when compared to countries that invest away from real estate. Anotherwords, the NZ gov't knows that we can't afford a massacre in our real estate market because it's all what we have.

You can ask me ‘a basic question’, but really everything in my post just goes to my points that - 1/ NZ learnt nothing from the housing market crashes that have occurred in other countries 2/ People will not believe that something can happen until it happens.

‘When has New Zealand’…..it wasn’t believed that a property market crash could happen in the US, until it happened. Up until the point that their property market crashed, it had never crashed. Same thing in Ireland.

If a country the size of the US - with the worlds most powerful economy - could not prevent a crash, what makes you think NZ can?

‘The government will not allow’…..the government is not some all-powerful god-like entity that can hold up all markets and do all things for all people. If it was then there would be no poverty, no mental health crisis, no hospital waiting lists, no gang problem etc etc etc.

Saying that our housing market won’t crash because it never crashed before, and that the government is able to prevent crashes….these are just tropes and myths of the NZ mass delusion when it comes to property.

[SBQ]

You can ask me ‘a basic question’, but really everything in my post just goes to my points that - 1/ NZ learnt nothing from the housing market crashes that have occurred in other countries 2/ People will not believe that something can happen until it happens.

‘When has New Zealand’…..it wasn’t believed that a property market crash could happen in the US, until it happened. Up until the point that their property market crashed, it had never crashed. Same thing in Ireland.

If a country the size of the US - with the worlds most powerful economy - could not prevent a crash, what makes you think NZ can?

‘The government will not allow’…..the government is not some all-powerful god-like entity that can hold up all markets and do all things for all people. If it was then there would be no poverty, no mental health crisis, no hospital waiting lists, no gang problem etc etc etc.

Saying that our housing market won’t crash because it never crashed before, and that the government is able to prevent crashes….these are just tropes and myths of the NZ mass delusion when it comes to property.

The OECD and UN has said from a taxation perspective, the NZ country present a 'special' unique situation when compared to other OECD nations. Why? Because we're one of few or perhaps the only one, that does not have a comprehensive capital gains tax. That alone on it's merit is enough to make bold claims that our housing market is unique to the rest of the world. Enough to show a graph to show how much NZ home prices have grown over the past 20 or 30 years in terms of affordability. Previous pages in this thread has shown this that in real terms, NZ houses are in a camp of it's own.

You ask, can a housing market crash of epic proportions happen in NZ? I doubt so. The only way I could see this happening is in the early 70s when record # of Kiwis did an exodus to Australia (as my uncle explained to me). But NZ is never going to be in that situation. Our gov't has all the controls greased up and we've seen the John Key gov't do this. At any kind of housing distress where the asset price could crash, they just open up the immigration valve and let more migrants move in. This is not a myth, this is how things are done in NZ and therefore housing is one of the key pillar's of the NZ gov't in keeping it stable. They will prevent a crash as they've successfully done in the past global events.

The UN and various major global accounting firms have tweeted to the NZ gov't in the past that we need some comprehensive taxation on our houses. Speculation and landordism has grown way off the scales. But our gov't does nothing. Instead, it prefers to ram other policies like 3 Waters without proper consultation.

[Logen Ninefingers]

The OECD and UN has said from a taxation perspective, the NZ country present a 'special' unique situation when compared to other OECD nations. Why? Because we're one of few or perhaps the only one, that does not have a comprehensive capital gains tax. That alone on it's merit is enough to make bold claims that our housing market is unique to the rest of the world. Enough to show a graph to show how much NZ home prices have grown over the past 20 or 30 years in terms of affordability. Previous pages in this thread has shown this that in real terms, NZ houses are in a camp of it's own.

You ask, can a housing market crash of epic proportions happen in NZ? I doubt so. The only way I could see this happening is in the early 70s when record # of Kiwis did an exodus to Australia (as my uncle explained to me). But NZ is never going to be in that situation. Our gov't has all the controls greased up and we've seen the John Key gov't do this. At any kind of housing distress where the asset price could crash, they just open up the immigration valve and let more migrants move in. This is not a myth, this is how things are done in NZ and therefore housing is one of the key pillar's of the NZ gov't in keeping it stable. They will prevent a crash as they've successfully done in the past global events.

The UN and various major global accounting firms have tweeted to the NZ gov't in the past that we need some comprehensive taxation on our houses. Speculation and landordism has grown way off the scales. But our gov't does nothing. Instead, it prefers to ram other policies like 3 Waters without proper consultation.

Your entire post just goes to prove my points again. You just doubled down on what you’’d originally said. Prior to the large price falls we have seen, you would have said large price falls were impossible!
The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates by 75 pbs, and we will have to keep raising as well in order to maintain the purchasing power of the NZD. I would say that a recession is now likely. How do you open the taps on immigration - to save the property market - in a recessionary environment when people would be losing their jobs(?) Your thinking is bizarre and is rooted in the pre-COVID / pre-inflation world that we no longer live in.
Again, if governments had the power to stave off recessions then we would never have recessions! The belief that ‘the government will always bail me out’ is utterly misguided.