Geo Political Risk

[BlackPeter]

maybe the GOP could send someone next time... like next month ...

send someone every month and let the Chinks run up a big fuel bill...

Ride em cowboy ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snTaSJk0n_Y

Good idea .... only problem is - China gets cheap fuel from Russia - and I hear they have plenty to share around.

I hope that the West is planning and preparing for cutting off China from Western technology, spares and supply lines .... but somehow I suspect that the Chinese have us still more at our balls than the Russians who control Europe with their dependency on gas.

West could probably do with lesser access to cheap Chinese garments and plastic toys ... (even if this would be hard for our retail industry) - but can we do without Chinese rare earths (for semiconductor manufacturing, solar panels and similar)? Interesting in this context: the Donbas region (East Ukraine) holds as well huge rare earth deposits. Maybe Putin is as evil, but not as stupid as he appears?

[Balance]

Not a question of if but when China invades/takes over Taiwan.

Taiwanese are living in cuckoo land if they seriously believe the US will come to their rescue. Not going to happen.

US is using Taiwan (as it had used any number of countries in the past) to try and undermine its competitors.

NZ better play smart and stay well clear.

[Davexl]

Found this quite interesting for the nerdier out there...

The Fall and Rise of Russian Electronic Warfare

The Ukraine invasion has become an old-fashioned slog, enabling Russia to unleash its electronic weapons

Bryan Clark
30 Jul 2022

12 min read

https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-fall-a...tronic-warfare

[Balance]

China Embassy in US warns of war with US over Taiwan.

Goody goody - the US weapons industry will be bringing out the champagne & caviar.

More arms sales to the region!!!!

Happy days are here!

[BlackPeter]

Not a question of if but when China invades/takes over Taiwan.

Taiwanese are living in cuckoo land if they seriously believe the US will come to their rescue. Not going to happen.

US is using Taiwan (as it had used any number of countries in the past) to try and undermine its competitors.

NZ better play smart and stay well clear.

Not so sure.

Taking an island with really difficult topography (I have been there ... amazing mountains and incredibly difficult beaches) against fierce resistence is not a child's play ... and certainly significantly more difficult than for the Russians to invade Ukraine, where they just had to drive their tanks on level fields across the border - and how did that work for them?

Communist Chinese army is unexperienced and untried and likely to use the same leadership structures as the Russians, which at least had previous war experience, even if their Ukrainian adventure didn't show that, didn't it?

Communist China is good in identifying weak opponents and bully and occupy them (as they did with Tibet sometimes in the 1950'íes), but they never ever fought or won against a better equipped and trained opponent. I.e. we do know that they are cowards and crooks, but they never managed to successfully fight a foreign army.

Taiwan has a well trained, very well equipped and highly motivated army. I think their Patriot density is similar like Israel. Not that easy to attack them even with rockets. Taiwan army regularly trains with the Sinpagorean forces and the Israeli forces, and they all belong to the best armies in the world.

Can Communist China flatten Taiwan with nuclear devices and destroy all its infrastructure? Maybe (though not certain at all), but what good would it do for them?

Can the Communist Chinese take over Taiwan with the people on the island still alive and keeping the engines and factories running? I severely doubt it.

Ah yes, and don't forget who Taiwans other neighbour is. I understand Japan is now putting lots of effort into improving their army ... and they know how to fight. As well - Taiwan used to belong to Japan, much later than it used to belong to any former Chinese emperor. Maybe time for Japan to claim their rights?

I think it is time you take off your anti US blinkers. Sure - US is (particularly under Republican governments) as well just a bunch of crooks, but the real culprits tend to sit in autocratic cleptocracies, like Red China.

[Balance]

I could not care a hoot whether the US or China or Russia are as corrupt and depraved as the other - they are the same.

But China will be looking forward to Japan joining the fray over Taiwan.

Really really looking forward to nuking a few Japanese cities for the war crimes (eg. Nangking massacre) that Japan committed on China soil.

Wonderful days ahead for the US arm industry however.

WOMD anyone?

[BlackPeter]

China will be looking forward to Japan joining the fray over Taiwan.

Really looking forward to nuking a few Japanese cities for the war crimes (eg. Nangking massacre) that Japan committed on China soil.

Wonderful days ahead for the US arm industry however.

Pretty stupid remark ... next time you better run that along your political commissar befor you post ;

So - you are saying, while Russia is not even able to succeed in Ukraine, Red China is able and willing to take on the rest of the civilized world?

What do you think will happen if China sends any nuclear devices to a Western country which has on top of that an iron clad defence agreement with the US?

[Balance]

Pretty stupid remark ... next time you better run that along your political commissar befor you post ;

So - you are saying, while Russia is not even able to succeed in Ukraine, Red China is able and willing to take on the rest of the civilized world?

What do you think will happen if China sends any nuclear devices to a Western country which has on top of that an iron clad defence agreement with the US?

US will sit back as it is doing in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians are getting pulverised while the US does bugger all.

Have a read of this if you really want to know how the Taiwan situation is playing and will play out :

*FIRST SHOT TRAP*

Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a display of Washington's desperation to win by provoking Beijing to fire the first shot. Beijing firing first will allow Washington to claim moral victory and hammer China with sanctions similar to those dished out to annihilate Russia. That's Washington's playbook to cut-off China before it overtakes America both economically and militarily.

It is unlikely Beijing will fall for the FIRST SHOT TRAP. Chinese military manoeuvres are sabre rattling that distracts and hides Beijing's next moves. Military confrontation with the US is an assured mutual destruction. An unwise move only suited for desparate last resort.

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves", Confucius.

Beijing leadership understands too well that beating Washington with military confrontation means it will have to dig two graves - one for Washington, another for Beijing.

Instead, Beijing will use its strength, non-military diplomatic and economic means, to hit Washington where it hurts most. Two major events are worth noting

1. American mid-term election in November 2022

2. The much anticipated US economic recession either in late 2022 or 2023.

Diplomatic protests, expulsion of American diplomats, attaches, journalists... from China, closing diplomatic offices are par for the course.

Carefully dumping US Treasury bonds AT OPPORTUNE TIMES (of Beijing's choosing) to force sudden hikes in US interest rates will inflict inflationary damage to Wall Street and America's electoral underbelly. By helping to prolong the US economic recession, Beijing will undoubtedly suffer collateral damage but the damage will be far less severe than kinetic wars.

Or, by selectively disrupting export shipments to the US (while minimising harm to Chinese exporters) will empty out supermarket and Home Depot shelves. Long queues for sustenance to maintain the American way of life will inflict social discontent and destabilise American social fabric. The supply-demand inflationary bubbles will wreck an already weakened US economy surviving on intravenous drips flowing from the money printing press.

Other measurez may include selective disruption of essential minerals or essential components exports from China to the US. Or switching export payments to Yuan. Or Beijing shift to gold-back Yuan...

As Xi Jinping and Wang Yi has repeatedly warned, those that play with fire will suffer burn.

There are more ways to skin Washington sloooooowly than risk bombs raining down on Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen...

Unless the Washington fires the first shot, Chinese countermeasures are unlikely to happen tomorrow, or the day after. 5000 years of Chinese civilisation says the countermeasures will happen BUT at a time of Beijing's choosing. When it happens, it will deal blows so severe the blowbacks will probably hurt China but will be crippling n devastating for US.

[BlackPeter]

US will sit back as it is doing in Ukraine.

WOMD?

US never signed a defence agreement with Ukraine ... but they are still doing most of the heavy lifting. US pays for and delivers most of the weapons systems ... and I am sure they are providing as well the intelligence where to hit the next Russian general.

US however does have a defence agreement with Japan. Better do your research!

[Balance]

US never signed a defence agreement with Ukraine ... but they are still doing most of the heavy lifting. US pays for and delivers most of the weapons systems ... and I am sure they are providing as well the intelligence where to hit the next Russian general.

US however does have a defence agreement with Japan. Better do your research!

Defence treaty is not worth the paper it is written on when it comes to the US facing a nuclear war.

Look at how the US deserted Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan & their citizens to their fate.

Look at how the US used WOMD on the innocent civilians in those countries.

The US has zero appetite for a real war. It is a paper Tiger.

We know that because of the Ukraine situation.

6 months from now, the US & West would have forgotten about the Ukrainians - the appetite to support Ukraine is already waning.

Having egged Ukraine on, the US will sit back and watch the Ukrainians get pulverised back to the Stone Age.

That’s what war mongering nations controlled by vested interests (arm industry) do.