TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Dassets]

CNBC late Friday reportwd"California DMV accuses Tesla of deceptive practices in marketing Autopilot and Full Self-Driving options".

If anyone is interested this looks fairly serious. Go to the CNBC article or a general search.

[RTM]

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ertising-tesla

Here’s a link for folk. Quite interesting.

[Dassets]

It was filed on the 28th July.

Here's a possible theory. Looks to me some must have got wind of it, shorted aggressively, then leaked to the media after market close. It basically hit all media an hour after close through to around 4 hours after close. There are no earlier media reports. I am surprised TESLA didn't disclose this yesterday, wonder what the disclosure rules are over there. I would have thought this could be viewed as material. IMO this will out pressure on the price.

[Walter]

There is also at least one director selling to pay for tax and options. Larry Ellison is no longer a director and has made massive capital gains on his Tesla holdings.

[Walter]

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ertising-tesla

Here’s a link for folk. Quite interesting.

In 2020 the German media was also full of such stories. Long story short ... again citing that the statement at the bottom of the website that the driver must actively monitor the car and that autonomous operation is not possible.According to TeslaMag sources, Tesla won the case and can continue to advertise its system as Autopilot

[Walter]

The Senate has just passed a bill that in theory will allow some Tesla purchasers to get a $7500 credit from next year. It will also stop the subsidy that many purchasers of Tesla's competitors currently get. In reality, the bill is written in such a way that plug in hybrids will get a subsidy that several times the cost of battery plus motor, but full BEVs will seldom qualify. Tesla has multiple input sources and battery technologies, so I'm sure that they will find a way to ensure that some Tesla purchases qualify.

[Dassets]

This is interesting, German BEV car sales for July. Tesla Y sold 1,035 units, about 3% of 28,815 BEV sales(12th position). Model 3 not in the top 20 ie not over 500 units for the month. Significant new models appearing on the sales list. VW took 3 of the top five spots, with total sales of 4,280. Hyundai, BMW, Audi, Opel(GM-based platform), FIAT and Dacia(Renault-based platform) the other Top 10 place getters.

This is my thesis playing out. The number of new models launched this year will impact Tesla's look forward "projections". Its price points are really placing it in the top quartile of offerings which amounts to a global market of 17 million cars. Sure new models will come(at some point but Tesla said at the full year result they were not working on a car design for the lower end market).

It makes the "20 million cars by 2030" wizard-like in creditability.

The only card that Musk is playing is the 45% representation of retail investors on the shareholder list which is way higher than normal lists. I predict he will keep playing to that base because it doesn't have the investment knowledge to make a grounded decisions IMO. At some stage that won't be enough to support the share price.

[Walter]

Do you think that the lockdown of the factory that exports Model 3 and base Y to Germany may of been a factor? What were the first 6 months of German BEV sales like?

[Walter]

In July there were major factory upgrades in Shanghai so you will also find that production and exports from there down next month too. Did you see the first half car sales in the very competitive California market? Model Y 42K, Model 3 39K, third place was RAV4 at 31K. BMW3 was only 4k. Tesla Model S sold twice as many as Mercedes S class.
Dassets is correct, Institutions are unweight Tesla, preferring the likes of Meta, where they are overweight.

[Dassets]

Absolutely to some extent for the Model 3(the Y comes from Germany) but Shanghai was reopened on the 19 April. On the 3 months to July Model 3 also doesn't appear in the top 20. The 3 cars didn't go to other markets eg NZ which hadn't sold basically any since March I think. Aussi the same. The figures are out there somewhere. NZ gets some in Sept maybe late August. But even last month Shanghai only produced 28T after the shutdown which ran for 2 weeks. The upgrade was meant to get them to 22T a week. they produced for 2 and a bit weeks so where are the cars according to their numbers. So running this a bit further it looks like NZ(and only using that to illustrate a point) will probably sell less Model 3 than last year. The issue is where ever you turn the numbers do not stack up and that is always a warning sign to me.

So in Germany in Feb before the Fiat 500(top seller in July at 2170 units) sold around 1200, 4 others in the top 10 weren't on the market, cut off at 1150 units. That is the real point I was making, the competitors are in the market and are coming with more. Tesla doesn't have a product to compete with the FIAT 500 and that is a major problem for them especially when you say you are going to have 30% of the entire global car market.