GNE - Genesis Energy

[winner69]

My understanding of how power companies make money is very limited so I need some educating. Just I've never been inspired enough to learn but have a hefty interest at the moment and they say you shouldn't invest in anything you don't understand.

Seems GNE FY22 EBITAF is going to be about $440m (their guidance and guru analysts in same ball park

To achieve that second half EBITAF going to be about 60% up on last year (pcp)

Just seems to me incredible result -- EBITAF splutters along at $350m/$360m for a few years and then a big spike to $440m

So whats behind this spike? Is it sustainable?

Seems too good to be true - please educate me

[alokdhir]

My understanding of how power companies make money is very limited so I need some educating. Just I've never been inspired enough to learn but have a hefty interest at the moment and they say you shouldn't invest in anything you don't understand.

Seems GNE FY22 EBITAF is going to be about $440m (their guidance and guru analysts in same ball park

To achieve that second half EBITAF going to be about 60% up on last year (pcp)

Just seems to me incredible result -- EBITAF splutters along at $350m/$360m for a few years and then a big spike to $440m

So whats behind this spike? Is it sustainable?

Seems too good to be true - please educate me

I am no expert but I am told they will do well now onwards as they are out of many long term loss making gas contracts ....also their retail business doing better and getting better prices for Kupe outputs of both gas and oil etc etc

Mr B would have been able to enlighten us better about GNE working and long term prospects ...if he ever thought long term about stocks !!! lol

[alokdhir]

If MCY results are so good ...think what will be GNE results be like on Friday

I am now expecting much improved divvy also ...maybe not 8.9 but 9.2 cents ...lol

[winner69]

If MCY results are so good ...think what will be GNE results be like on Friday

I am now expecting much improved divvy also ...maybe not 8.9 but 9.2 cents ...lol

After that GNE result better be more than amazing

And that divie better be closer to 10 cents than 9 cents otherwise they taking the mickey out of us and treating us like mugs

[alokdhir]

After that GNE result better be more than amazing

And that divie better be closer to 10 cents than 9 cents otherwise they taking the mickey out of us and treating us like mugs

If one has to give any credence to Craigs research then GNE results should be better then MCY as MCY was their second pick after GNE and CEN third ....

Friday not far ...$ 3.20 coming !!!!

[Snoopy]

After that GNE result better be more than amazing

And that divie better be closer to 10 cents than 9 cents otherwise they taking the mickey out of us and treating us like mugs

Interesting comment by Darian Devers, CFO of Contact Energy at 19:00 into the webcast of Contact Energy's PR2022.

Around the Te Rapa closure coming on 1st July 2023 that will take 200,000 tonnes out of the atmosphere when it is displaced by geothermal

"Te Rapa is a relatively efficient baseload thermal plant, but it is not economically viable to run baseload thermal generation any more, in particular if you take the market price of carbon, natural gas and coal and put it through any model you will end up with a short run marginal cost which is a lot higher than any of the netbacks you can get through selling electricity."

Cost of thermal generation now $109/MWh which is +14% YOY is the new Marginal cost of running the Te Rapa Thermal plant (24:30 into Contact PR2022)
'Acquired generation costs' +22% at $142/MWh, with this indexing to what is going on with international coal prices (I guess this electricity was supplied by Genesis)

Carbon prices also contributing. Slide 19 from Contact FY2022 presentation: FY2022 $40/Unit, c.f. FY2021 $31/Unit

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Result out

Genesis delivered 44% lower emissions

That's good

[winner69]

And for you lovers of dividends a bigger dividend than last year

That's good

But alokdhir will be a bit pissed off with only 8.9 cents

[alokdhir]

Bang on target ...8.9 Cents divvy ...440 M EBITAF and next year 455 m guided ...its like clock work

Real accounting forensics will be done by Snoopy

But their reliability of dividend yield is almost 100%

I expected 8.9 cents only as thats the trend ...add 0.1 cents very six months ....which is great

[winner69]

If MCY results are so good ...think what will be GNE results be like on Friday

I am now expecting much improved divvy also ...maybe not 8.9 but 9.2 cents ...lol

Maybe not won the day .... was 8.9

Told you they would play the 'retaining capability for future investment.' trick