Seeka

[bull....]

to balance the discussion around zespri presentation ( which read's more of all the risks ) some of the negatives esp in the next yr are

The adverse weatherevents and seasonal conditions in 2022 are also expected tohave an impact on yield in 2023 ... which is why im thinking more downgrade to come

The review of the use of hydrogen cyanamide (Hi-Cane) inNew Zealand by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)has significant risk to the industry’s ability to grow fruit ofconsistent quality and yields, The EPA have advised theywill finalise their decision in 2023 following a public hearing. could have a big impact on stock prices ?

Thedecision to release 350 hectares of Zespri SunGold Kiwifruit isat the bottom end of the previously advised range of licencerelease which was 350-700 hectares. So they dont have demand yet for a bigger increase ?

they also list all the other challenges over 2 pages on pg 8 , 9

So on a positive note if they do overcome all the many challenges they could very well be right on the positive 10yr forecast..... time will tell

[Sideshow Bob]

While not Seeka, Zespri's update yesterday:

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperc...pdf?1674180264

[bull....]

here's furthur news in regard to zespri announcement yesterday .... doesnt look good for growers

Kiwifruit payment cut 'a shock' for growers as fruit quality issues bite

Fruit loss was estimated at almost 20% for the last quarter of the year, compared to an earlier 7% forecast, the Whakatāne Beacon reported.
And there are questions around grower payments in future months, with Zespri chief executive Dan Mathieson saying the impact will be assessed “once we have completed the February forecast”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plent...ty-issues-bite

[Grimy]

I think the share price run up of the past week or so is a little premature. We could be testing sub-$3 again with this news.

[BlackPeter]

here's furthur news in regard to zespri announcement yesterday .... doesnt look good for growers

[FONT="]Kiwifruit payment cut 'a shock' for growers as fruit quality issues bite

[/FONT][FONT="]Fruit loss was estimated at almost 20% for the last quarter of the year, compared to an earlier 7% forecast, the Whakatāne Beacon reported.[/FONT]
And there are questions around grower payments in future months, with Zespri chief executive Dan Mathieson saying the impact will be assessed “once we have completed the February forecast”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plent...ty-issues-bite

Absolutely - the four horse men of the apocalypse seem to be on the loose ... and they are trampling all over our Kiwifruit industry.

Remind me what the biblical solution is against the horsemen - "ora et labora" (pray and work)?

Maybe that's what our Kiwifruit industry will do as well?

Pray / hope for the next year to be better - and work hard to make the best out of the hand they will get dealt.

Obviously - nobody can predict or control next seasons weather ... but many of the parameters which created the recent quality issues they can manage ... and some of the parameters they can't are already taken care off (like labour shortages).

So - I expect quality issues to improve this year (because they better understand them and won't have the same workers shortages) ... and for next year the odds should be good for a better harvest as well. Apparently "El niño" is knocking on the door ... they better check their irrigation systems, but untimely frost should be less of an issue.

When is the best time to buy? When everybody is so fearful of the four horsemen that they forget that the next stage after apocalypse is paradise.

Might be time to buy some stakes of paradise while they are still cheap.

[percy]

Seeka's share price is up over 20% from its recent lows.

[BlackPeter]

Seeka's share price is up over 20% from its recent lows.

Good point. Looks like the bottom is already in.

Just sometimes hard to see with all the black sludge over the thread ;

Cheers for pointing out the green shoots ...

[nztx]

Good point. Looks like the bottom is already in.

Just sometimes hard to see with all the black sludge over the thread ;

Cheers for pointing out the green shoots ...

What factors have slipped out of the equation now, that contributed
to the most recent 12 month SP slide ?

Remember the Eagle didn't lay an interim gold egg in September 22

[BlackPeter]

What factors have slipped out of the equation now, that contributed
to the most recent 12 month SP slide ?

Remember the Eagle didn't lay an interim gold egg in September 22

OK - nobody can predict future share prices, and this includes me as well as you.

What we can see however is that the SP is now confirmed (more than 3 days) above the MA 100. Some investors use this as indicator. Market seems to think they are fine, but sure - as any other indicator this is not infallible.

As far as the negative factors are concerned ... at some stage are they just priced in, or do you expect that the price will go in a straight line through the $0 mark?

They do make money - over the last 10 years something like 33 cents p.a. per share average. Sure - this year it will be less (but I suppose still positive) and no reason to assume that in the years to come they won't go back to mean.

So - I guess, the question is - how low do you expect them to go - and why?

[nztx]

OK - nobody can predict future share prices, and this includes me as well as you.

What we can see however is that the SP is now confirmed (more than 3 days) above the MA 100. Some investors use this as indicator. Market seems to think they are fine, but sure - as any other indicator this is not infallible.

As far as the negative factors are concerned ... at some stage are they just priced in, or do you expect that the price will go in a straight line through the $0 mark?

They do make money - over the last 10 years something like 33 cents p.a. per share average. Sure - this year it will be less (but I suppose still positive) and no reason to assume that in the years to come they won't go back to mean.

So - I guess, the question is - how low do you expect them to go - and why?

get the right graph, as encouraging as it looks, it may look like a minor bounce off the bottom,
or maybe not. What do current economic conditions, the sector & competition say ?
Also global economic conditions ? How about weather, labour force, political times etc ?

The primary sector including Kiwi's is very dependent on Mother Nature ..
that's before other factors come into play