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  1. #1691
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Good point. So - red stands for hype and we are in a time of hype deflation?
    One way of looking at it BP

    Sharetraders get caught up in the general market hype .....maybe, like lambs to the slaughter.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #1692
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    One other thing with that table is that most of the bigger ‘losers’ are still making more money than last year.

    PE multiples are what drive market direction
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #1693
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    One other thing with that table is that most of the bigger ‘losers’ are still making more money than last year.

    PE multiples are what drive market direction
    i reckon market sentiment drives market direction and p/e multiples are simply a mathematical outcome of that.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #1694
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    i reckon market sentiment drives market direction and p/e multiples are simply a mathematical outcome of that.
    Market sentiment = how much am I prepared to pay for a $ of earnings

    That is an ‘input’ decision from punters — meaning PE is not really a mathematical ‘outcome’

    But I suppose we agree PE is a measure of market sentiment
    Last edited by winner69; 24-10-2018 at 02:04 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #1695
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    One way of looking at it BP

    Sharetraders get caught up in the general market hype .....maybe, like lambs to the slaughter.
    The NZX capital index chart got ugly today dropping convincingly below 200 E&DMA. Below the uptrend line from 2012, now resistance. Ugly. Modest support around 8370 then 7360 below that (monthly log chart). October! History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. Or something like that. Still heaps of headroom for the long haulers, but they also know corrections can turn into crashes and it all happens in excruciatingly slow motion. You look back and ask yourself why if you saw it coming that you did nothing about it.

  6. #1696
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    Good spotting Baa Baa and Greater Fool. The bog standard 200 day moving average has been broken over the past week but it has been broken three times before in the last 6 years and the market has still advanced. However, of more interest is the upwards trend line of the NZSX50 that has been in place since 2012 has just been broken . Who knows what the future holds but I take this as a red alert signal - no buying, action all sell signals, keep capital safe at the moment.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  7. #1697
    Aspiring to be an Awesome Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    The NZX capital index chart got ugly today dropping convincingly below 200 E&DMA. Below the uptrend line from 2012, now resistance. Ugly. Modest support around 8370 then 7360 below that (monthly log chart). October! History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. Or something like that. Still heaps of headroom for the long haulers, but they also know corrections can turn into crashes and it all happens in excruciatingly slow motion. You look back and ask yourself why if you saw it coming that you did nothing about it.
    That is so true Baa Baa, I have been watching profits dissapear and red arrows appear instead and i keep telling myself when they go back up I will sell them! They just dont seem to be going back up this time! Maybe they wont

  8. #1698
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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    That is so true Baa Baa, I have been watching profits dissapear and red arrows appear instead and i keep telling myself when they go back up I will sell them! They just dont seem to be going back up this time! Maybe they wont
    Fear not young bear, over the long horizon the stock market has always gone up.PS-Did I forget to mention that the longest recovery period on a down cycle on the Dow was 25 yrs, lots of patience may be required.

  9. #1699
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Fear not young bear, over the long horizon the stock market has always gone up.PS-Did I forget to mention that the longest recovery period on a down cycle on the Dow was 25 yrs, lots of patience may be required.
    Indexes are an average measure. Even in Bear markets there will be individual stocks that outperform the 'averages'.

  10. #1700
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Indexes are an average measure. Even in Bear markets there will be individual stocks that outperform the 'averages'.
    You must of course be referring to HLG.

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