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  1. #7821
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    NZ SALES ON DOWNBOUND TRAIN

    https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...ownbound-train

    AUCKLAND HOUSE PRICE DEFLATION ACCELERATES AS SALES VOLUMES PLUMMET

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...s-plummet.html

    RENTAL PROPERTY CONFIDENCE DIMS

    https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...onfidence-dims


    Todays..........ASB Morning Brief

  2. #7822
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    You guys can use whatever index you like. Since Adam was a boy the medium price has been the Gold standard and remains so as far as I am concerned.
    Just because REINZ has come up with some new index doesn't mean its suddenly the new Gold standard any more than Bitcoin is the new standard for the monetary system.
    All the negative talk doesn't worry me. Its already more than fully factored into the super low metrics of the stock and I remain very confident of my in depth knowledge of the company.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #7823
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    You guys can use whatever index you like. Since Adam was a boy the medium price has been the Gold standard and remains so as far as I am concerned.
    Just because REINZ has come up with some new index doesn't mean its suddenly the new Gold standard any more than Bitcoin is the new standard for the monetary system.
    All the negative talk doesn't worry me. Its already more than fully factored into the super low metrics of the stock and I remain very confident of my in depth knowledge of the company.
    Newspapers live the median ...real people have used for HPI for quite a while

    Anyway just as matter of interest the National median price for April was the same as it was for March ....median house price did not increase in April

    You can even get seasonally adjusted median house prices as well .. that was 1.9% up from March to April ...let’s use that eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #7824
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Newspapers live the median ...real people have used for HPI for quite a while

    Anyway just as matter of interest the National median price for April was the same as it was for March ....median house price did not increase in April

    You can even get seasonally adjusted median house prices as well .. that was 1.9% up from March to April ...let’s use that eh
    I'm a dog so I'll stick doggedly to what I believe is the gold standard even if I have to be dogmatic doing it
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #7825
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    looks ready for the next leg down along with other village stocks. property sales figures just released did not look pretty
    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    NZ SALES ON DOWNBOUND TRAIN

    https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...ownbound-train

    AUCKLAND HOUSE PRICE DEFLATION ACCELERATES AS SALES VOLUMES PLUMMET

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...s-plummet.html

    RENTAL PROPERTY CONFIDENCE DIMS

    https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...onfidence-dims


    Todays..........ASB Morning Brief
    OK - I obviously realise that some people here are desperate to spread fear and generally love to emphasize anything which could be interpreted as bad news. I hope you have fun ...

    But apart from that the linked to article said:

    Despite the decline in sales activity, median house prices nationwide increased by 6.4% in April.
    So, lets for a moment pause before we all run for the hills. Maybe we just should think about what these numbers could mean:

    NZ has a finite number of homes. According to this article it was roughly 1.88 million end of 2018:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...in-new-zealand

    End of 2017 it was 1.856 million homes - i.e. the number of homes did increase during 2018 year by roughly 24000 homes or 2000 per month (however they define "home) or 1.3% of all homes;

    I probably have some rounding errors in above numbers, but they don't change the picture.

    So - the number of homes is growing very slowly and our inept government does what it can to further reduce the velocity building new homes, i.e. any "growth" of house sales per year would come only from people swapping their homes faster and faster.

    However - if the property merry go round is moving faster and faster, this is no measure of the economy doing well. Sure - some people need to move (because they want to or need to live somewhere else), but for others it is just a sign of stupidity. Moving without need just costs money without adding value. One of our former neighbours swapped home every 3 years or so to "make money". They started with a nice (inherited) house in a good neighbourhood and live now (20 years later) in a pretty dilapidated house in one of the most run down parts of Christchurch. However - they really did their part to keep these annual sales numbers up.

    What the numbers are saying is that the property merry go round is turning a bit slower and people are saving the money they otherwise would put into pointless moves and build up a nestegg to buy into SUM or some other retirement companies.

    We see as well that the house price is rising, which means that if they want to move into their SUM unit, they will get more for their home and can afford the better unit - well, unless they moved every 3 years. Our former neighbours could not anymore afford to buy into SUM. They sold their house too often instead.

    All good. No reason to panic.

    But, if you enjoy the exercise - now is an as good time as any to run for the hills. GO!
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #7826
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Hey BP ...you are usually the one rubbishing companies but i’ll Allow you the odd ramp.

    Your story would have sounded better if you had said median house price was up 19.6% since April 2016 .....much more impressive .....so no worries.
    Last edited by winner69; 15-05-2019 at 02:59 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #7827
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    LOL BP - Told you SUM people would try and put their own creative spin on the numbers. These same people probably have very little understanding of the company or how it operates and its probably never occurred to them that property developers can do very well even in a flat market as they can procure land, building supplies and manpower at cheaper prices.

    People will see what they want to see. For example - disaffected renters will probably always be hoping for and seeing a pending property crash in the hope they may one day be able to afford a house of their own.

    Julian told me after the meeting he is confident of earnings growth this year and with the company track record and trading on a forward underlying PE of 11-12 that's plenty good enough for me.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #7828
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    LOL BP - Told you SUM people would try and put their own creative spin on the numbers. These same people probably have very little understanding of the company or how it operates and its probably never occurred to them that property developers can do very well even in a flat market as they can procure land, building supplies and manpower at cheaper prices.

    People will see what they want to see. For example - disaffected renters will probably always be hoping for and seeing a pending property crash in the hope they may one day be able to afford a house of their own.

    Julian told me after the meeting he is confident of earnings growth this year and with the company track record and trading on a forward underlying PE of 11-12 that's plenty good enough for me.
    Still rated as BBB?

  9. #7829
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MauroNZ View Post
    Still rated as BBB?
    Rating has been upgraded to HHH which is better than BBB or even AAA

    HHH = Happy hound holder
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-05-2019 at 04:37 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #7830
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    SUM at 560 pretty good value

    Slightly underpriced but will still increase over next year in line with earnings growth so 630/640 likely by year’s end.

    ...but you never know the world might go mad and rerate it a bit ...then 770 is on cards mid next year
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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