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Thread: Comvita - CVT

  1. #1151
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    Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit.A long term holder thru thick and thin. Will buy at 5.50

  2. #1152
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    The take over will happen, it's just a question of when.

    Your $3 downside call was just plain wrong. The stock has already come down from $12 and the market cap today is a meagre $280m.

    I bet you in the next few weeks there'll be an offer on the table. They won't just walk away. This is all just part of their plan.
    Bet on. How much are we betting?

  3. #1153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Bet on. How much are we betting?
    lol, what are we betting exactly?...

    If the take over party was doing due diligence "for months", that means they were looking at this while the share price was in the $7-$9 range. Therefore their take over price would realistically have been at least $9, possibly $10. BUT, throw in the recent downgrade and they probably dropped their offer price down to $7, a figure too low for the board to accept.

    HOWEVER, if the share price drops further, to say mid to low $5s, it becomes interesting, as the questions is now "is $7 an acceptable price"? The take over could happen but it doesn't really help shareholders (the bet).

    If it is the Chinese, who already have a 10% stake, this "game" could go on for years. They could possible buy another stake later this year, then make another take over attempt. If it is another party, then it's more likely they will either raise their offer or be gone for good, however, that raises the chances of the Chinese making a counter offer.

    I'll bet that there isn't much downside. So, if you buy today and the share price drops to low $5s, then the take over party will be back with an offer at $6, thus you will break even. What I bet won't happen, is that the share price will drop to low $5s and the take over party doesn't come back. To sum up, if you buy today, you can't lose, worse case is you break even.
    Last edited by Ogg; 22-05-2018 at 02:41 PM. Reason: grammar

  4. #1154
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Hmm - did it ever occur to you that the takeover party might have done something different than just staring at the share price for months on end to decide at the end that they don't want to pay more than market and the board deciding that they want more?

    Maybe they actually did some due diligence and found out that the emperor is wearing no clothes ... just another overpriced cyclical agricultural stock with an inept board and management?

    With current management and no growth this stock would look dear with a PE of 10, but it actually is in the mid 20'es. p;
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  5. #1155
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    PE is 35 at the mid point of their revised forecast. (Whatever that forecast is worth).
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #1156
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    PE is 35 at the mid point of their revised forecast. (Whatever that forecast is worth).
    Looks like I am still overvaluing this company . No, actually - I took the 3 year forecast and averaged it out. Agree however that it has little credibility - as any other forecast coming from its board.
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    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #1157
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post

    The take over will happen, it's just a question of when.

    Your $3 downside call was just plain wrong. The stock has already come down from $12 and the market cap today is a meagre $280m.

    I bet you in the next few weeks there'll be an offer on the table. They won't just walk away. This is all just part of their plan.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    lol, what are we betting exactly?...

    If the take over party was doing due diligence "for months", that means they were looking at this while the share price was in the $7-$9 range. Therefore their take over price would realistically have been at least $9, possibly $10. BUT, throw in the recent downgrade and they probably dropped their offer price down to $7, a figure too low for the board to accept.

    HOWEVER, if the share price drops further, to say mid to low $5s, it becomes interesting, as the questions is now "is $7 an acceptable price"? The take over could happen but it doesn't really help shareholders (the bet).

    If it is the Chinese, who already have a 10% stake, this "game" could go on for years. They could possible buy another stake later this year, then make another take over attempt. If it is another party, then it's more likely they will either raise their offer or be gone for good, however, that raises the chances of the Chinese making a counter offer.

    I'll bet that there isn't much downside. So, if you buy today and the share price drops to low $5s, then the take over party will be back with an offer at $6, thus you will break even. What I bet won't happen, is that the share price will drop to low $5s and the take over party doesn't come back. To sum up, if you buy today, you can't lose, worse case is you break even.
    I thought the bet is this :

    Refer your post above - "I bet you in the next few weeks there'll be an offer on the table."

    So my bet is that there will not be an offer by 20 June 2018 - that's 4 weeks (more than a few weeks).

    Shall we say $2,500?

    Happy to make it higher if you like.
    Last edited by Balance; 22-05-2018 at 08:06 PM.

  8. #1158
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Come on Balance - stop trying to take candy off a baby. You have information that says there is no take-over anywhere near the table "was not Chinese - you read it here first"

    Asking Ogg to flip the double headed coin and you make the call is not cricket

  9. #1159
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    Come on Balance - stop trying to take candy off a baby. You have information that says there is no take-over anywhere near the table "was not Chinese - you read it here first"

    Asking Ogg to flip the double headed coin and you make the call is not cricket
    Ball Tampering,Under Arm Cricket.!!
    Certainly not NZ cricket,or Sharetrader cricket.
    Last edited by percy; 22-05-2018 at 08:29 PM.

  10. #1160
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    Come on Balance - stop trying to take candy off a baby. You have information that says there is no take-over anywhere near the table "was not Chinese - you read it here first"

    Asking Ogg to flip the double headed coin and you make the call is not cricket
    He is soooo confident I figured I have to give him a chance to make some money off me.

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