MPG - Metro Glass

**Balance** · 13-12-2018, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by Ogg

lol, I haven't bought in. Just wondering where you've gone.

Been watching it closely though. It looks like it's been creeping up.

Small volumes, yes, looks like supply is tightening.

The shark, Bain capital, looks as if he's not hungry anymore.

Why would they chase the sp up further before launching a bid?

No need for me to comment on the sp action - events unfolding as I expect.

**Scrunch** · 14-12-2018, 04:59 PM

4.386m shares just crossed at 60c. Odds on that Bain is the buyer. Will the markets on-market follow up to this new price point?

**Balance** · 14-12-2018, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by Scrunch

4.386m shares just crossed at 60c. Odds on that Bain is the buyer. Will the markets on-market follow up to this new price point?

It will.

**Balance** · 14-12-2018, 05:20 PM

Originally Posted by Ogg

Looks like they're happy to chase it up.

What's your average buy in price Balance?

Low enough to give me 100% return when FBU makes its takeover bid.

**mshierlaw** · 14-12-2018, 05:34 PM

Originally Posted by mshierlaw

SOLD @ 52c, guess thats better than 37c. Decent loss though.

Once the dividend was gone no reason for me to hold any more.

100% guaranteed that whenever I sell the timing is ****E. In future my sell signals should be taken as as a strong BUY.

LOL - but would have made this decision again & again.

**Balance** · 14-12-2018, 08:05 PM

Originally Posted by Ogg

lol, you're dreaming...

The fact that they are chasing it up, suggests that they are not interested in a full take over.

When the stock was at 37 cents, they could have made an offer at 60, which would likely be enough to get it 'over the line'.

I think what Bain are doing, is taking a controlling stake, to block FBU or anyone else, while at the same time, waiting for MPG to break their banking covenants or come under further capital pressure. Then, Bain will come to the rescue and buy the debt, converting it into equity. In other words, they're after the debt, not the company.

By then, Bain will likely be over 50% and will put their own management in place. Mopping up the rest would be fairly easy, if not, they could always flog it off to FBU then, as FBU at the moment have too many problems and are too slow to make major decisions. Private equity companies, like Bain, have the advantage of speed, and can rush in and buy up companies without all the bureaucracy that comes with a public company like FBU.

If Bain wanted to buy a "cheap construction company", they could just approach the many thousands of private companies in NZ. What differentiates MPG is the amount of debt on it's books compared to it's market cap. Bain, and other private equity companies are vultures. They don't just look for cheap companies, they look for 'arbitrage opportunities'.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bain starts to sell some of it's stock if it goes higher. They're already sitting on large paper gains. I'm sure they are just happy to wait on the side lines. If MPG recovers, they win, if MPG gets under pressure, they can buy the debt, so it's win/win for Bain, not so much if you're a retail holder, unless you want to wait a long time.

Playing out as I expected.

Very happy with how this stock taken from the reef fishes is performing.

**Arbroath** · 17-12-2018, 09:10 AM

A total of around 7m shares (nearly 4%) have crossed off market since Bain's last SHH notice so we'll find out soon whether it is Bain or someone else...oh the anticipation!