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07-03-2019, 01:59 PM
#2461
Originally Posted by Snoopy
I wonder if the gagging of the independent directors is working against the takeover? If they were free to speak, there might be more debate in the media about the pros and cons of the offer. The directors are probably so terrified that if they open their mouths at all, then something they said could be misinterpreted as speaking against the deal. So all directors have remained silent. But the problem now is the deal is out of the news completely. If the deal had been free to be discussed openly, then it may have got more media and hence shareholder traction. A couple of weeks back, I got a card in the mail 'reminding me to send in my acceptance'. There was no attempt to resell the deal on that card, a fact that surprised me.
I have been one of the hold outs, but posted my acceptance form for all my shares away today. I too thought acceptances would flow in thicker and faster. But now you can do it on the net, there could be an ambush of acceptances at the last minute.
The fact that I chose to post in my acceptance is partly because I remain luke warm on the deal. I am half hoping the post service slow motion will kick in and my acceptance form won't make it in time! As you can see in my post 2439, the real value of the offer is $8.89, not $9.45. So one way of judging the likely success of the offer is to look at the market price and see if it goes over $8.89. The share price spiked pretty close to that on 11th February (got to $8.84). But it has since fallen back. This to me is an indicator that the takeover will get there. But I am not sure that 'there' will end up at 75% of all shares. Global Valar might get to 65% and say that is enough, something they are entitled to do under the scheme of arrangement that they produced.
It would be fascinating to get an operational trading update for RBD, for the financial year just closed. But no doubt directors won't give we shareholders that. Perversely, if RBD is on or ahead of budget, that could be seen as talking down the value of the offer! $8.89 I think is a fair price rather than a great price. But it was the prospect of getting more of my shares paid out at $9.45 than the 75% of shares I expected to get, that finally got me to send in my acceptance form. Nevertheless, I hope to keep some 'skin in the game' after the Mexican takeover is over.
SNOOPY
I thought hard about doing the same as Snoopy but decided not to tender my 25k shares in to the offer and the same with another couple of other smaller but useful parcels I control.
After reading more from the Mexican's it may not be bad being a minor shareholder that is not gobbled up as part as the offer. I like this company a lot and feel that we shouldn't be giving away the opportunities too cheaply. If the deal doesn't succeed I'll be happy and if I'm left as a minority it will not be the end of the world as the company is to remain listed and I'm keen to have part of this company well in to the future.
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07-03-2019, 09:39 PM
#2462
Originally Posted by glennj
I thought hard about doing the same as Snoopy but decided not to tender my 25k shares in to the offer and the same with another couple of other smaller but useful parcels I control.
After reading more from the Mexican's it may not be bad being a minor shareholder that is not gobbled up as part as the offer. I like this company a lot and feel that we shouldn't be giving away the opportunities too cheaply. If the deal doesn't succeed I'll be happy and if I'm left as a minority it will not be the end of the world as the company is to remain listed and I'm keen to have part of this company well in to the future.
Glennj I salute you! And if you ever see me waddling down the street I hereby give you permission to address me as "Sellout scum."
I guess I am not going to change your mind. But I do invite you to look at my post number 7 in the YumChina thread on the 'Overseas' forum. There I have compared the offer price for RBD by Global Valar, verses the private equity offer for YumChina made a year ago in EBIT and EBITDA multiple terms.
Good as RBD has been, it doesn't stack up that well compared to YumChina in terms of earnings metrics. Yet the offer price made by Global Valar is almost as good for the shares that get accepted:
1/ EBIT for RBD are 18.5 to 20, while (c.f. 20.5 for YUMC)
2/ EBITDA multiples for RBD are 12.2 to 13.2. (c.f. 13.5 for YUMC)"
The contrasting approach taken by the respective CEOs is interesting. Joey Wat of YumChina effectively told private equity to 'get lost' and refused to put their takeover offer to shareholders. One year on and YUMC has already rebounded to the private equity takeover price on operational performance since. Russel Creedy of Restaurant Brands OTOH rolled over and asked Global Valar to tickle his belly. When Creedy eventually retires, I expect he will nominate a spineless jellyfish as his replacement!
Anyway, I don't want to be too critical of Russel as generally I think he is an outstanding chief executive, even if I don't agree with every decision he makes. I do expect the RBD share price to drop after the offer is complete, although not by as much as some think. But I wouldn't be surprised if in twelve months time the price of those remaining shares is north of $9.45.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 09-08-2019 at 10:41 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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08-03-2019, 08:49 AM
#2463
Russel did say share price will be over 10 bucks ...didn’t say when
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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08-03-2019, 08:57 AM
#2464
Originally Posted by winner69
Russel did say share price will be over 10 bucks ...didn’t say when
Are you accepting Winner? Or holding out for that 'tenner"?
SNOOPY
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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08-03-2019, 09:11 AM
#2465
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Are you accepting Winner? Or holding out for that 'tenner"?
SNOOPY
I’m accepting
Hope I retain a few as love following Carl’s progress
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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08-03-2019, 08:50 PM
#2466
Member
Originally Posted by Stylerz
Anybody care to make a prediction if the take over is going to be successful.
I was initially very confident. But getting very close to deadline and only 32% shares offered so far. Not so sure now.
41% at the close of play on Thursday. It's growing!
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11-03-2019, 09:25 AM
#2467
Member
Originally Posted by weasel
41% at the close of play on Thursday. It's growing!
49.5% at the end of Friday.
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11-03-2019, 09:34 AM
#2468
Originally Posted by weasel
49.5% at the end of Friday.
looks like they are going to get there doesn't it.
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12-03-2019, 09:19 PM
#2469
Originally Posted by blackcap
looks like they are going to get there doesn't it.
As announced to the stock exchange on Monday:
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The Partial Takeover was conditional on Finaccess Capital receiving acceptances for at least 75% of Restaurant Brands’ shares. Finaccess Capital has announced that it has waived the 75% acceptance condition and that, to date, it has received acceptances for 61.73% of Restaurant Brands’ shares.
As a result, the Partial Takeover is now unconditional as to acceptances,* and under the Takeovers Code the closing date for the Partial Takeover has been automatically extended to 26 March 2019.
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Looks like we have to wait for the end of the month to get our payout.
SNOOPY
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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13-03-2019, 08:19 AM
#2470
Originally Posted by Snoopy
As announced to the stock exchange on Monday:
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The Partial Takeover was conditional on Finaccess Capital receiving acceptances for at least 75% of Restaurant Brands’ shares. Finaccess Capital has announced that it has waived the 75% acceptance condition and that, to date, it has received acceptances for 61.73% of Restaurant Brands’ shares.
As a result, the Partial Takeover is now unconditional as to acceptances,* and under the Takeovers Code the closing date for the Partial Takeover has been automatically extended to 26 March 2019.
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Looks like we have to wait for the end of the month to get our payout.
SNOOPY
Snoopy - thoughts?
One proposition is that given that Finaccess will achieve control, those shareholders who held out and wish to continue to hold could adopt the position that should accept the offer at $9.45 to realise the control premium on their holdings and then reacquire the original number of shares they had afterwards at the listed price less the control premium from the remaining float.
Some shareholders may find if there is scaling on the extended offer that they end up with small holdings that don’t want (or potentially below the min holding) so may wish to exit these holdings so there may be a bargain or not
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