On Platform 1.5 I'm 12.8% RAR after just over 4 months.

I have no trust in XIRR, so calculate my own adjusted version of RAR, which is at 11.87%:

Number of individual units ($25 blocks) months paid: 504
Number of unit months missed payment: 8
Nominal interest rate (using WA) of those units: 18.34% (includes payment protect)
Compound interest rate of those units: 19.96%
Harmoney charges (currently @20%): -4.0%

Expect defaults:
-I have 8 arrears between 1-30 days, although HM only records 1. This includes a 10 day buffer (I ignore payments 0-10 days late). Zero 31-60 days.
-Estimate the probability of default as 20% on 1-30; 70% on 31-60%; 100% 61+ days. This is applied against the outstanding sum (not the missed payment).
- Giving expected defaults of: $220 (outstanding principal on missed payments) x 20% = $44
Expect default RAR impact: - 4.1%

19.96%-4%-4.1% = Overall 11.87%


Will be interesting to see how it pans out, I've increased my risk mix (more CDEFs), so expected return on all loans with or without payments calculates to 22.7% compounded. With the likelihood of increased arrears I'm hoping my adjusted RAR can stay above 12%