Gold

**Aaron** · 28-08-2020, 09:01 AM

Some morning confirmation bias.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fe...und-its-errors

Are 2% price rises every year actually a good thing. I don't think so. Especially if it is an average with all things now manufactured in Asia going down and house and asset prices going up by a lot. It seems messed up to me, unless of course you are wealthy already as the cost of everyday items goes down and your assets keep rising.
But potentially good for gold.
Mercury "Green Bonds" 7 year maturity but no idea of interest rate until the "book build" I wonder what the indicative rate is.

I am torn, no debt and holding cash at nearly 0% in expectation that opportunities would arise in a crash, probably should invest in any yield reasonably safe at 5% and above and borrow some money to do it. Just a bit nervous after the March shortest bear market in history. Sticking with gold miners for now. Any ideas, should investors be holding any cash or bonds or should I be all in real estate, shares and gold with a bit of debt?
I am conservative and like the idea of diversification. So with my limited capital, shares can be bite sized, but real estate is a bit harder unless you are buying real estate companies on the NZX. Currently overweight in gold mining companies so reluctant to go any further there. Suppose I should read the NZX thread for ideas. I see OCA is popular topic currently although opinions are mixed.

**JBmurc** · 28-08-2020, 09:18 AM

Originally Posted by Aaron

I didn't read the Fed minutes but the headline says they see a negative economic outlook due to Covid-19 and they discussed not buying govt bonds for yield curve control. Less money printing bad for gold but if the economy turns down it will be interesting to see if they ramp up the money creation or not. As always nothing seems straight forward. I was going to retire after my gold stocks went up 1,000% but looks like I might need to wait longer.

More than $54.3 billion in U.S. commercial mortgage backed securities have been transfered to loan workout specialists mostly because of payment delinquencies, a 320% increase since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commerci...says-1.1484837

**Aaron** · 28-08-2020, 11:12 AM

More confirmation bias but from NZ this time.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/home...?ocid=msedgntp

Prices have quadrupled in real terms since 1980, and have tripled relative to incomes in the biggest cities.

All the hard work inflating prices is being done by our central bank. Houses are better than gold, at least they keep you warm and dry, in most cases.

**Bjauck** · 28-08-2020, 12:13 PM

Originally Posted by Aaron

More confirmation bias but from NZ this time.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/home...?ocid=msedgntp

Prices have quadrupled in real terms since 1980, and have tripled relative to incomes in the biggest cities.

All the hard work inflating prices is being done by our central bank. Houses are better than gold, at least they keep you warm and dry, in most cases.

Residential housing will be the most protected of all asset classes by NZ governments of all colours. Owners tend to be more politically active and influential than non-owners for a start. As a result of tax and investment environment settings plus history, Kiwi households have comparatively little invested on the NZ share market (either directly or through managed funds.)

NZ bank depositors have the OBR which will see them take a hair-cut of banks are up against the wall. However the government will protect house values as they are so important for NZ's financial system well-being and NZ household wealth. Residential property ownership and investment in NZ is the favoured asset class and that is unlikely to be changed by a government that wishes to be re-elected.

**airedale** · 01-09-2020, 03:40 PM

US$ index has dropped below support at 92. POG strengthening up to US$ 1987 today. Getting closer to US$ 2,000 again.

**arekaywhy** · 01-09-2020, 03:44 PM

Originally Posted by Bjauck

Residential housing will be the most protected of all asset classes by NZ governments of all colours. Owners tend to be more politically active and influential than non-owners for a start. As a result of tax and investment environment settings plus history, Kiwi households have comparatively little invested on the NZ share market (either directly or through managed funds.)

NZ bank depositors have the OBR which will see them take a hair-cut of banks are up against the wall. However the government will protect house values as they are so important for NZ's financial system well-being and NZ household wealth. Residential property ownership and investment in NZ is the favoured asset class and that is unlikely to be changed by a government that wishes to be re-elected.

This makes me want to make gains in the market purely out of spite. This schits me off. My intent is to do the opposite of the majority to see if I can make a better gain than the average.