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Thread: KMD - Kathmandu

  1. #1221
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by forest View Post
    Thanks Winner, I should have spend a bit more time analysing the results. Very disappointing this announcement.
    I think there was a bit left ‘unsaid’ in this announcement

    Late March announcement will be interesting ....hopefully things improve dramatically
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #1222
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I think there was a bit left ‘unsaid’ in this announcement

    Late March announcement will be interesting ....hopefully things improve dramatically
    I can't see how that's going to happen. For the latest 7 weeks sales to have had such a dramatic effect on the first 15 weeks (more than double the period) the very latest trading performance must be extremely disappointing. That suggests to me that there's some big discounts coming in terms of very heavy summer discounting promotion activity coming which could impact margin.

    Balance reckons downgrades come in three's. So this one, (effectively a downgrade on an eps basis) another in late March when they announce the half year and another one before the annual result in due course. $2.00 is on the cards here I reckon, maybe even a bit lower.
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2019 at 01:06 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #1223
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Jeez
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I can't see how that's going to happen. For the latest 7 weeks sales to have had such a dramatic effect on the first 15 weeks (more than double the period) the very latest trading performance must be extremely disappointing. That suggests to me that there's some big discounts coming in terms of very heavy summer discounting promotion activity coming which could impact margin.

    Balance reckons downgrades come in three's. So this one, (effectively a downgrade on an eps basis) another in late March when they announce the half year and another one before the annual result in due course. $2.00 is on the cards here I reckon, maybe even a bit lower.
    Jeez $2 or less, that’s pretty low
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1224
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez

    Jeez $2 or less, that’s pretty low
    I think its plainly obvious we're in a bear market now, (look what's happened to Apple sales, see CNBC.com if you want even more evidence) and KMD will be at best a zero growth eps company for the foreseeable future. People are going to pull their head in with consumer discretionary purchases, (this is not a consumer staple) so the clear risk to flat eps this year is to the downside going forward, if we're not already heading down now.
    Ben Graham's well respected valuation methodology was to apply a PE of 8.5 for a no growth company. If they can make 23 cps earnings this year 8.5 x 23 = $1.95.5
    If others want to pay more, good luck to them.

    The company dropped a really ugly and unexpected downgrade clanger on the market today so a 20-30% correction wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

    There's a massive difference between a strong growth company and a no growth company as you know mate which is why I dropped this thing like a boiling hot potato this morning. When you make an investment mistake for whatever reason, yours's or the company's, in my experience its better to admit it, take the loss on the chin and move on.
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2019 at 02:46 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1225
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    Speaking from a customer's point of view. Recently I've been wanting to buy a bag and a few other items at Kathmandu. A few weeks ago in mid December, I saw on their website that sale ends on the 14th January 2019, so I decided to wait a wee bit into the new year before making any purchases.

    Is it possible that this lower than expected sales update for the Christmas/Boxing Day period be partly due to Kathmandu making the sale period somewhat extended? Had they made the sale strictly end on boxing day or before end of the year, that would have given customers (like myself) more urgency to rush out and buy everything before the sale was over, and that could have made the December sales figures look better.

  6. #1226
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    Possibly the worst December weather ever made kiwis not want to go on camp, hence buying less camping gears?

  7. #1227
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Kathmandu sell twice as much in Oz than they do in NZ

    NZ sales been going nowhere for years. Last year they were down.

    Yesterday’s announcement said Oz sales slightly down. They won’t be repeating last years strong growth in OZ

    Oz the problem for F19 - not this impending recession in NZ
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #1228
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Market Value Added MVA is a measure that shows what the market per se thinks of a company. It is the company’s market cap less shareholder equity (the market value of shareholder equity). Positive MVA is good - adding value to equity and all that (rather than destroying value)

    KMD’s MVA at Jan18 was $158m (good).

    They acquired Oboz and raised $50m capital and the market loved that driving its MVA to an astounding $323m in Aug 18. Yes KMD’s market cap was $743m (up from $485m in Jan18)

    Today KMD’s market cap is $528m and it’s MVA has fallen to a mere $78m

    So since announcing the Oboz acquisition (and raising more capital) KMD’s MVA has fallen by about $80m (or cut it in half)

    Seems like the market per se thinks Oboz is a bit of dud and worse still still have lost confidence in Kathmandu and it’s ability to perform well in the future.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1229
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    KMD say nz sales are down 2.4% so far this year

    Not unexpected so no surprise. Not really a reason to conclude NZ consumers have stopped spending and the country is heading into a recession.

    Not unexpected - just look at the chart below - Kathmandu in NZ not doing that well over the years eh ...and this year year looks like much of the same.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #1230
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    From above chart Kathmandu NZ sales up 1.4% since 2014 (cAGR +0.4% pa)

    Core Retail sales in NZ are up 24% in same period .....Clothing, footwear etc sector up 16%

    Sort of says Kathmandu in NZ are essentially losers .....fast sales in what has been pretty buoyant times.

    Makes you wonder eh.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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