THL - Tourism Holdings

[Yoda]

updated this thl chart just to see what may happen in the next year or two

Forecast eps based on $39m for F18 and $50m for F19 (normalised ...without the one off gains expected F18)

Sort of looks OK but share price might have got ahead of itself a bit

Current PE about 19 which is getting pretty high for a company which isn't really generating that much cash

Like these charts as besides showing whats happened (esp earnings) it gives you a feel of market sentiment over time. As we all know market sentiment is one of the key drivers of share price.

From 15/7 ..... Thanks for that chart Winner. I finally sold out at 5.90. Watch and wait . I did buy a few at 6.10, but on the dead cat bounce.... Oh well.
Will get back in at some stage .

[Yoda]

If we do, I shall sell half the remainder of my portfolio and buy only THL

Sounds like a good plan !,

[percy]

Written on 13/7...thanks Percy .. Will we get to 5.28?

I do not currently own THL and do not have an opinion about them,however the market does have a habit of overshooting/undershooting,and the chart does indicate $5.28 is possible as the sp is a downtrend from the high of $6.85 it reached a few weeks ago.If I was looking to buy I would wait for the trend to change.The current sp is $5.60.
I can only quote Market Screener figures,which I do not know whether are correct or not.
It would appear 2019 projected eps are causing the present sp weakness.
The eps growth from 2019 to 2020 is 35.8% and the 2020 to 2021 eps growth is 30%.
So one bad year,with five great years.
...........……………..2016......……...2017............. 2018.............2019............2020...........20 21.
eps....................20.5...............24.6.... ..........49.6.............25.4.............34.5.. ..........44.9
eps growth.......................20%............100%.. .......-[48.2%].......35.8%..............30%
PE ratio............................................. ..............................22.9.............16. 8...........12.9
yield............................................. ..................................4.27%..........5 .10%........6.17%

[iceman]

Action Manufacturing cleared for a large land purchases to build more campervans in Hamilton. Good news.http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU180...-to-expand.htm

[Patient Panda]

Action Manufacturing cleared for a large land purchases to build more campervans in Hamilton. Good news.http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU180...-to-expand.htm

Thanks for the link

interesting final sentence “Earlier this week Action announced the purchase of Auckland-based Fairfax Industries, a maker of refrigerated truck and trailer units, as part of a strategy to expand into large commercial vehicles”.

[Yoda]

Thanks Percy.....better keep some cash on hand .

[Beagle]

Picture says 1000 words about how savagely analysts have downgraded their EPS outlook https://www.marketscreener.com/TOURI...392/revisions/
That's ugly ! I'm with Percy, no way I'd touch this until the trend changes.
Worth noting that THL has generally traded around 17 times forward earnings. 17 x 25 cps = $4.25.

[winner69]

Consensus still close to 6 bucks

thl definitely need to come up with those acquisitions pretty soon to get punters excited again and to get the share price up again.

Current business not worth 6 bucks or even 5 bucks on fundamentals .....but how many years can they go on making acquisitions to keep the merry go round going round and keep the share price at over inflated levels

[golden city]

I think if the share price going down further Citic might lodge a full takeover

[RupertBear]

I may be wrong but I still believe this is a good long term hold with a good divie. I am mildly tempted to buy a few more at these levels although I agree it may go down even further in the short term