PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[NT001]

The big problem at the moment is what amount of sales will disappoint, what will be hohum, what will be encouraging and what will put us into orbit.
One mans disappointment level may very well be ecstacy for another and about all that will happen is the share price will find the middle ground for us wherever that may be.

Yes, Miner, and then of course there are those including non-holders who will say the announced results may have seemed okay but you can't believe anything said by DD and the chairman - the buggers have probably secretly sold their shares and done a runner to Brazil, leaving us facing a cap raising.

[klid]

I think those 1000-7000 numbers are about right. If it is $550 a test then 1818 would be $1m (my target).
Have Pacific Edge actually ever released the numbers of their tests sold, and will they be doing that in the upcoming report? Or will that number not be provided and instead just trading revenue?

[MAC]

Now there is coverage on Pacific Edge in the public domain, the market will be expecting what the insto’s and the analysts have in their spreadsheets, just as for any other stock;

Forbar FY15: $2.8M
Edison FY15: $2.32

There is a third analyst outlier at FY15 $3.82, but putting that one aside.

The expectation thus becomes a smudge under half the average of the two analysts full year estimates in allowing for the second half revenues probably being higher than the first, thus,

HY15 market anticipation = (2.8 + 2.32)/2 = $1.28 adjusted ---> = $0.9M

No, the SP won’t move on the revenues release, whether it comes in at $0.5 or $1.5M, no one will give a rats aside from the particularly fickle, and there has been an enormous flush out of the fickle over the last six months, they are all sitting on the sidelines, good riddance too.

It’s the commentary that may move the SP upward toward valuation, simply due to affirmation of the five year goal, progress against the commercialisation plan, and the outlook for FY15.

[blobbles]

Come on people, let's have a little fun and post a guess of the total US sales (total number of CX Bladder tests fully paid). To the closest goes the glory!

I guess 450.

[BFG]

are you serious.......... or just ramping again.
Sure to get plenty of share price movement if sales are near the bottom of your range and it wont be up.

Remember, this is the guy who think Directors are not accountable to shareholders, that cap raises at depressed prices are GREAT and that revenues don't matter one iota (it's different this time Snaps, don't ya know???).

I pick 270 tests (that have ACTUALLY BEEN PAID FOR IN FULL).

[Crystal Ball]

Come on people, let's have a little fun and post a guess of the total US sales (total number of CX Bladder tests fully paid). To the closest goes the glory!

I guess 450.

Snapiti thinks its 500, BFG only 270- I reckon 600.

[Balance]

Snapiti thinks its 500, BFG only 270- I reckon 600.

If they are not selling 1,000 a month at this stage, might as well pack it in and sell the company to someone who knows how to market a revolutionary disruptive product.

Remembering that they now have a potential patient base of tens of millions in US, Australia and NZ from over a year ago, sales staff have been employed and money spent on promotion, marketing and publicity.

6,000 as a minimum.

[klid]

Now there is coverage on Pacific Edge in the public domain, the market will be expecting what the insto’s and the analysts have in their spreadsheets, just as for any other stock;

Forbar FY15: $2.8M
Edison FY15: $2.32

There is a third analyst outlier at FY15 $3.82, but putting that one aside.

The expectation thus becomes a smudge under half the average of the two analysts full year estimates in allowing for the second half revenues probably being higher than the first, thus,

HY15 market anticipation = (2.8 + 2.32)/2 = $1.28 adjusted ---> = $0.9M

No, the SP won’t move on the revenues release, whether it comes in at $0.5 or $1.5M, no one will give a rats aside from the particularly fickle, and there has been an enormous flush out of the fickle over the last six months, they are all sitting on the sidelines, good riddance too.

It’s the commentary that may move the SP upward toward valuation, simply due to affirmation of the five year goal, progress against the commercialisation plan, and the outlook for FY15.

...

are you serious.......... or just ramping again.
Sure to get plenty of share price movement if sales are near the bottom of your range and it wont be up.

What do you mean MAC that the SP won't move on the revenue release but it will on the commentary? How are you going to differentiate between the two when they occur simultaneously anyway?

It's time for cold hard facts; not airy-fairy commentary that probably cannot be relied upon.

Agree with Snapiti for once, not on the numbers, but what will happen to the SP if they come in low.

0.5m DOWN. 1.5m UP. I don't think the market is sitting on the sidelines at the moment awaiting some... commentary.

[Dentie]

Come on people, let's have a little fun and post a guess of the total US sales (total number of CX Bladder tests fully paid). To the closest goes the glory!

I guess 450.

I'm guessing 127 tests in the US that have been paid for.

[NT001]

No, the SP won’t move on the revenues release... It’s the commentary that may move the SP upward toward valuation, simply due to affirmation of the five year goal, progress against the commercialisation plan, and the outlook for FY15.

I would have to agree because there wouldn't be a lot of investors apart from a few on this thread who actually undertstand the intricacies of PEB's market development situation, and the actual figures will be largely meaningless to a lot of people. This is still a speculative stock and hardly ready for analysis using normal methods. A couple of articles in the ODT and Herald and the explanatory comments of DD and Swann (i.e. commentary) will probably have more impact than the release of figures that have to be explained in detail to the uninitiated. Even then, PEB will remain speculative and its SP will remain largely subjective. I've placed my bet and am sticking. Some of the cynics will drop out, the believers will remain in. The evidence seems to suggest that FY 2015 will give the analysts a much better steer. Yes, that means waiting another year.