Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[CJ]

Any guesses where the shareprice will go once the offer ends (on thursday?).

Or has a probability of success of 0% been built into the price?

[COLIN]

Any guesses where the shareprice will go once the offer ends (on thursday?).

Or has a probability of success of 0% been built into the price?

It will drop significantly, whether or not the required percentages are reached. By accepting the offer there is at least a chance that the Canadians will eventually be able to navigate their way through all the obstacles being laid by our self-serving Government.

[Toddy]

It will drop significantly, whether or not the required percentages are reached. By accepting the offer there is at least a chance that the Canadians will eventually be able to navigate their way through all the obstacles being laid by our self-serving Government.

I don't think that the SP will drop 'significantly' at all. The board need to restructure AIA to unlock wealth. Thats what this has been about all along. They cannot do this under the current model.

Anything could happen. Maybe the original IFT terms look more favourable under the new laws imposed by the Labour Govt. Also, don't forget that there could be a change of Govt which could soften the laws so that minority ownership can take its due course in the market place.

There may be light at the end of the tunnel, a pro business Govt may also soften the monetary policy leading to a fall in interest rates and hence, the exchange rate.

[CJ]

Canadians have now said they only want a 24.9% voting right for their 40% holding.

This is no longer "control" as required by the OIO?

[Te Whetu]

Canadians are really bending over backwards to get a stake... they are offering a substantial premium to the market, they have lost a large tax incentive and yet they are still prepared to give up 15% of voting rights to ensure that they get a stake of the business.

I say let them have it... NZ Super Fund invests in overseas assets...

But it does make you wonder whether the current market price for AIA is potentially too low; if the government does turn down the offer after all this I say that they should buy the shares themselves.

Disc: Hold no AIA

[CJ]

But it does make you wonder whether the current market price for AIA is potentially too low; if the government does turn down the offer after all this I say that they should buy the shares themselves.

Is the NZ Super fund allowed to make a take over offer? Between them, ACC fund, other NZ govt pension funds, IFT, and the councils, I am sure they could get to 100%. then the Labour government could run it as a monopoly together with AIRNZ to "tax" those rich enough to be able to fly.

As you say for the canadians to be giving up so much, they obviously see a lot of unrealised value.

[macduffy]

Good point. But we don't really want to see a precedent set whereby the govt can talk down the price of a share so that it can take it over cheaply.

[Scooter]

I think the share price will rise. Less liquidity, people looking to buy back holding at a price cheaper than $3.60, afterall it is still a quality must have asset.

[Toddy]

Good move by the Canadian's.
24.9% falls below the acts definition of 'control'.

Does this automatically mean that the Labour Govt has lost at its own game. Even the mum's and dad's out there can understand that 24.9% is a minority. i.e If Labour win 24.9% of the vote in the next election one would not expect them to govern.

[CJ]

Does this automatically mean that the Labour Govt has lost at its own game. Even the mum's and dad's out there can understand that 24.9% is a minority. i.e If Labour win 24.9% of the vote in the next election one would not expect them to govern.

Classic. Would any NZ interviewer be good enough to ask cullen this question?