PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Agrarinvestor]

wow snoopy you really get into it.
It sounds like you purely back a racehorse on its form.

I am more of a gambler and have become very good at recognising opportunities based on sentiment, charts and the old fair and greed thoery.

I think I am on the right pony this time, time well tell, 40 cps up ahead and just around a couple of cnrs

Hi,

Can someone who is aregistered shareholder, ask for a copy of the register of shareholders ?
enquiry@computershare.co.nz

It could be of interest if we see some neverheard funds and trusts collecting shares. I am sure that Agria has very good reasons why they bought 50,2% of PGW.
The often stressed problem that Agria has difficulties to raise money can turn into a big surprise.





Mr. Lai Guanglin, was appointed as a director and the Chairman of the board of the directors of the Company in February 2009. The Company is a leading provider to the construction sector offering a wide range of pipe related products, services and solutions to the constructors, designers, consultants and government agencies in Hong Kong and Macau. Mr. Lai’s wholly owned investment vehicle, Singapore Zhongxin Investment Company Limited, is the majority shareholder of the Company. Mr. Lai is the founder and the Chairman of the board of directors of Agria Corporation which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Agria Corporation is primarily engaged in research and development, production and sale of crop seeds to the agricultural sector in Australia, New Zealand, China and South America and the provision of rural services to the farmers in New Zealand and South America. Agria Corporation operates the Southern Hemisphere’s largest forage seed business in New Zealand. The activities in forage seeds and rural services are carried out by PGG Wrightson Limited which is a subsidiary of Agria Corporation. PGG Wrightson is a company listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange. Mr. Lai’s wholly owned investment vehicle, Brothers Capital Limited, is its largest shareholder.
Mr. Lai has extensive experience in investments, acquisitions and operation management. Mr. Lai has established many other enterprises in China, Hong Kong and internationally, in particular, animation, logistics and transportation, pharmaceutical sectors, etc. He takes a leading role in respect of strategic planning and business development in his investment portfolio.
Mr. Lai is also the deputy Chairman of Chamber of Commerce in Shenzhen, China.
Mr. Lai holds a bachelor’s degree in accounting from Monash University, Melbourne, Australia and is a certified public accountant in Australia.
In December 2009, Mr. Lai was appointed as a director of PGG Wrightson Limited which is a company listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange.
Mr. Lai is the elder brother of Mr. Lai Fulin, an Executive Director of the Company. Mr. Lai is the sole director of Singapore Zhongxin Investment Company Limited, a substantial shareholder of the Company which has an interest in the shares of the Company that is required to be disclosed under Part XV of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.

[Balance]

another 2.5 million shares in off market trade over night, looks like the overhang of shares bought for 29 cps is being sold off

Nice 13.8% profit - courtesy of Dodgie Georgie's fire sale.

[blockhead]

wow snoopy you really get into it.
It sounds like you purely back a racehorse on its form.

I am more of a gambler and have become very good at recognising opportunities based on sentiment, charts and the old fair and greed thoery.

I think I am on the right pony this time, time well tell, 40 cps up ahead and just around a couple of cnrs

Don't think "fair" comes into share trading too much Snapiti, there may be a fair bit of fear from time to time though !

[Snoopy]

What am I missing, it all look good for the next 12 months, can't forecast farming past that, never have and never will

Well I can forecast beyond that. There will be some major market disturbance, be it a disease or tit for tat trade sanction that will shut a major producer out of one of our markets for an extended period. NZ farmers will benefit due to product substitution. There will be a drought that will seriously affect our own farmers. And our currency will go up choking off the worldwide recovery form an NZ perspective when translated into NZ dollars. I am confident that all of these events will come to pass. However, I have no idea exactly when all that I have forecast will happen. This is how it always has been in the rural sector. And it prevents market prices being bid up too high because all farmers, if not investors, know that the only thing that is certain with farming is the unexpected.

The market does not like uncertainty. The way the market addresses this is through valuing agricultural shares at modest multiples.

In FY 2012 PGW made $24.4m. Divide that by the 754.8m shares on issue and I get earnings of 3.2cps. With PGW trading at 34c this is a PE of 10.5, which is IMO a little high for an agricultural company near to the top of the earnings curve. This can only mean one thing. The market is already pricing in a significant rise in profit for FY2013. The PGW profit must rise by around 20% to justify a share price of 34c. I would say that at 34c, PGW is fully and fairly priced.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

What am I missing?

It never hurts to look at alternative investments in the agricultural sector.

PGW: trades at 15% above asset backing.
NZS: trades at 15% below asset backing.

PGW: general exposure to all farming sectors.
NZS: specialized exposure to the cream of farming product, the dairy industry.

Both have substantial overseas shareholders as backers.

PGW: Agria: History of management disharmony that split the company. Faced lawsuits from shareholders alleging misrepresentation of business prospects in the prospectus. Faces suspension from the NYSE. Technically bankrupt IMO.
NZS: Olam International. Years of successful management of farming ventures of all kinds in the Americas, Africa and Asia. Over $NZ100m of capital set aside to support upcoming rights issue.

Now you are a successful farmer Snapiti. Where would you put most of your money?

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

Mr. Lai Guanglin, was appointed as a director and the Chairman of the board of the directors of the Company in February 2009. The Company is a leading provider to the construction sector offering a wide range of pipe related products, services and solutions to the constructors, designers, consultants and government agencies in Hong Kong and Macau. Mr. Lai’s wholly owned investment vehicle, Singapore Zhongxin Investment Company Limited, is the majority shareholder of the Company. Mr. Lai is the founder and the Chairman of the board of directors of Agria Corporation which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Mr. Lai’s wholly owned investment vehicle, Brothers Capital Limited, is its largest shareholder.

Mr. Lai is the elder brother of Mr. Lai Fulin, an Executive Director of the Company. Mr. Lai is the sole director of Singapore Zhongxin Investment Company Limited, a substantial shareholder of the Company which has an interest in the shares of the Company that is required to be disclosed under Part XV of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.

I don't doubt that Alan Lai has plenty of money. And good on him for supporting the business of his brother.

Given Agria's capital position I would suggest that if Alan Lai wants Agria is to survive then Alan Li will pump more capital into it. However it is unlikely he will get a rights issue away with minority Agria shareholders as a rule being so disenchanted. That means Alan Lai will have to issue new Agria shares to himself. And that will dilute the interests of the minority Agria shareholders.

SNOOPY

[Balance]

Given the makeup of shareholder register I expect they'll be a few with bigger holdings wanting out and the result should have a few bigger players wanting in. E.g. those out want to book a capital gain and those in want the divies. (Quite a few funds can only buy stocks with dependable divie streams.) It'll take a while for these buyers and sellers to agree a price to exchange on.

Nothing new here, just how the game is played. Patience is required so don't read anything much into the fact that our sleepy little market didn't move much after the result.

After FPA, next one in the cross-sights of the Chinese.

Watch their modus operandi - they take a cornerstone shareholding and then, when things are turning around, they pounce.

This spring is certainly looking greener than the springs of the last few years!

[Snoopy]

After FPA, next one in the cross-sights of the Chinese.

Watch their modus operandi - they take a cornerstone shareholding and then, when things are turning around, they pounce.

This spring is certainly looking greener than the springs of the last few years!

Balance, I still can't fathom how you missed selection for the Olympic team. You are that good with the long-bow.

Your theory is good IMO, but the timing is out. Agria started with a 19.9% shareholding in PGW, then when things turned good they did pounce, which is why they now hold just over 50%. But that was over a year ago! Agria want the PGW proprietary seed technology. They have access and control of that through their 50.22% PGW stake. You have to convince me why Agria would want any more of PGW for your theory to have further legs.

Once you have established a need to mop up the PGW share register, you will then have to demonstrate a means. Agria at US84c has a market capitalization of $US46.52m. PGW at US26c has a market capitalization of $US197m. Of course Agria has already swallowed half of that, but it still leaves $US98m in the hands of other PGW shareholders. Little fish cannot swallow big fish. That is how it works in the ocean and the same rules apply to the financial sharks.

SNOOPY

[elZorro]

Very good point Belge, this is turning out to be a bad day for NZ Inc. Some of our best R&D work going offshore for a pittance.

[percy]

Once you have established a need to mop up the PGW share register, you will then have to demonstrate a means. Agria at US84c has a market capitalization of $US46.52m. PGW at US26c has a market capitalization of $US197m. Of course Agria has already swallowed half of that, but it still leaves $US98m in the hands of other PGW shareholders. Little fish cannot swallow big fish. That is how it works in the ocean and the same rules apply to the financial sharks.



SNOOPY[/QUOTE]

Luckily NZ's two most successful businessmen don't know that.!!!!!!!
Graeme Hart's Rank Group brought out The govt print office using debt.Once he got the taste of eating big fish he set about eating bigger and bigger fish.
Alan Gibbs had a history of buying big businesses using none of his own money.Totally debt funded.
You should find Serious Fun The alan Gibbs story enlightening.
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