MPG - Metro Glass

[bullfrog]

Serial underperformers manage to underperform in good and bad times.
They are consistent.

I think we all agree that there is a perception that MPG has underperformed, but against what benchmark are we judging this underperformance against? Is it a sector benchmark, or a market benchmark? If it's above average in its sector, but below average in the market, then it ticks a box for inclusion in a diversified portfolio I guess.

[JeremyALD]

......and invariably come out with pretty cool presentations painting a picture of how wonderful they are and they going to grow heaps forever by doign wonderful things

Keep thinking of MVN and how similar the Metro 'story' seems to be

I actually find their presentations are adquately presented and the forward statements are positive but don't really overstate success and they often have "market dependant" on some of their projections.

THL is an example of VERY positive forward statements in their reports and of course they have been delivering. I get a lot more confidence from reading a THL report and I would do even if I knew nothing about the companies.

I think MPG is trying to say things will get better but I haven't seen them telling lots of porkies recently. Tbh they took responsibility at the share holders meeting (and they had to)...but I think you'll see they will be working very hard to turn things around. I doubt they'd want a similar shareholders meeting next year and if there was I'd expect some resignations.

[winner69]

Codecracker not a challenge this morning - only 58 seconds to complete

So did a DCF on Metro to give the brain cells a bit of a workout

Using Metro's own assumptions 5 year growth 7.9% pa for next 5 years (then 2.9% oa forever) and some margin expansion a DCF valuation is $1.92

Working backwards to current share price of $1.10 the market is only pricing in five year growth at 2.0% pa with no margin expansion

Seeing how Metro seemed to have pissed off many fund managers maybe current price is about right. Even so that in theory that should still give a 10% pa return plus dividends

Metro need to get the confidence of fund managers back before the share price will get to $1.50 plus. It is the big punters that really control the share price.

[Fatboyj]

ACC included in the big punters group? I'd have thought with them jumping in others would have followed.

[winner69]

ACC included in the big punters group? I'd have thought with them jumping in others would have followed.

They just averaging down

And got to put their (our) money somewhere eh. Doubt they are 'overweight' Metro anyway

Think ACC owns a bit of most companies on the NZX - even the dogs.

[BlackPeter]

Brian Gaynor's view on the state of the building industry (not just) in NZ. Not MPG specific, but I think very relevant to explain as well their pain:

http://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.co.n...-that-got.html

Worthwhile reading - and MPG certainly would need to be part of the proposed solution (just in case the building industry wants to improve their lot)

[winner69]

BP - If you really want to know more about residential construction productivity read this (was mentioned in Gaynors article)

http://www.productivity.govt.nz/site...Report_0_0.pdf



double glazing one of the main contributors to costs building a house - factor in housing affordability

[percy]

If you really want to know more about residential construction productivity read this (was mentioned in Gaynors article)

http://www.productivity.govt.nz/site...Report_0_0.pdf

What 343 pages.
Did the CEO of MVN write it.?

[Beagle]

What 343 pages.
Did the CEO of MVN write it.?

That's funny.

[BlackPeter]

BP - If you really want to know more about residential construction productivity read this (was mentioned in Gaynors article)

http://www.productivity.govt.nz/site...Report_0_0.pdf



double glazing one of the main contributors to costs building a house - factor in housing affordability

Interesting. Tens of thousands of highly paid consultant hours must have gone into this report. I am sure we are looking here at millions, probably tens of millions of taxpayer dollars.

On a first flick through it it appears they recommend lots of additional consultation and reviews ....

Are you aware of anything material which came out of this work? I guess at least it appears that our government realised already in 2011 that there is a problem. This must be a highlight

But probably not a discussion for the MPG thread ...