Dow

[Hoop]

Three short weeks later, DOW 19,911 looks set for 20,000! Massive.

No worries.

I'm using S&P500 figures but the DOW correlates with the S&P500

The wow is.... analysts are predicting 2017 earnings to increase by 11.4%....est analysts consensual forward earnings $131.8 (8th Dec)
the massive is... Mr Market is already pricing this in and more...
Forward PE= Latest close 2274/131.8 = 17.25 on an increasing trend.. well above its average of 14.4...
Assumming Mr Market has also priced in the interest rate hike and the predicted rise in inflation (both negative pressures on Mr Market)

Recent history shows forward earnings predictions a year ahead have been far too optimistic ...Are predictions useful ?..see the history below

Some more history
back in 2007 before the big bear the forward PE was 1550/105 = 14.76
back in 2000 before the big bear the forward PE was ~25

No worries ..eh

[Hoop]

Chart of the Day
With the Dow quickly approaching the 20,000 milestone, today's chart provides some long-term perspective by illustrating the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900 -- there are several points of interest. Take for example an unlucky buy-and-hold investor that invested in the Dow right at the dot-com peak of December 1999. A decade and a half later, the inflation-adjusted Dow is up a mere 20%. That is not altogether an impressive performance considering that 17 years have passed. On the other hand, take the investor who bought right at the end of the financial crisis. The inflation-adjusted Dow is up a significant 146% from its financial crisis lows -- not bad for a for a seven and a half year investment. More recently, the inflation-adjusted Dow has rallied and continues to make new all-time highs as it approaches a major 20,000 milestone.


http://www.chartoftheday.com/20161214.htm?H

[winner69]

DOW 25000 middle of next year - no worries

@TheStalwart: Staggering chart. Americans' optimism that stocks will rise just exploded higher in a way not seen since 1998.… https://t.co/NqsnpKV4kL

[winner69]

Jarred says inauguration day will be the market top in this cycle

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man

[Raz]

Jarred says inauguration day will be the market top in this cycle

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man

I go with that plus a couple of elements in the Senate confirmation hearings concerned me, so cashing up a large chunk of my US portfolio..no need to be greedy its been a amazing run.

[arc]

The 3 Month DOW displays a definite resistance to breaking 20K and now the 1 Month displays a slow decline since Jan-11.
Can Trump talk it up ...and will they really believe him. Is Trumps focus just going to be on whats good for his own back-pocket... and not the Nations.

[Hoop]

the 20000 has been cracked

The second longest Bull ever lives on......onwards and upwards.

[Raz]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/worl...ss-initiatives

Ha looks like I sold out too early...:-) Still with Trump it is now more clear who to reinvest with...

[Valuegrowth]

It closed above 20,000 for the first time.

the 20000 has been cracked

The second longest Bull ever lives on......onwards and upwards.

[macduffy]

Don't focus on the Dow. It's the S&P 500 that matters.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/ma...08-gto0fg.html