HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Beagle]

Back on topic .....Heartland year end not that far away

Doubt whether we’ll get to hear much before August as $68.4m profit is in the bad as they say

Come July/August the share price will get back into the $2.xx when it’s obvious F19 will be close to $75m profit

No worries

I am not nearly that optimistic. I think the current PE of 14 is about fair value but wouldn't rule out further contraction back to 13 if the economy and growth slows, mainly thanks to low business confidence caused by Labour's policies. If it stays at 14, which is by no means a given and we get ~ 7-8% EPS growth that suggests at $1.77 it won't be until Christmas 2020 when the SP will be back to $2.14 with 2 1/2 years of compound growth at that rate.


Looking at the dividend yield is where the case for holding is best made in my opinion. Foreseeable that the average annual dividend over the next two years could be about 10 cps fully imputed 13.89 cps gross = 7.8%.

[RTM]

I am not nearly that optimistic. I think the current PE of 14 is about fair value but wouldn't rule out further contraction back to 13 if the economy and growth slows, mainly thanks to low business confidence caused by Labour's policies. If it stays at 14, which is by no means a given and we get ~ 7-8% EPS growth that suggests at $1.77 it won't be until Christmas 2020 when the SP will be back to $2.14 with 2 1/2 years of compound growth at that rate.

You could well be correct Beagle. And if the economy and growth slows as you postulate...then it won't be just Heartland that suffers from some contraction of PE ratio. And then the exchange rate will go down...0.62 ?? and then.....and so it goes on.

[Beagle]

You could well be correct Beagle. And if the economy and growth slows as you postulate...then it won't be just Heartland that suffers from some contraction of PE ratio. And then the exchange rate will go down...0.62 ?? and then.....and so it goes on.

I've been reflecting on things a bit lately and the recent fracas on this thread which STMOD kindly cleaned up and subsequent emails I had with Percy and discussion with Couta1 provided further clarity. For quite some time I have felt bad that the way I conducted myself in this thread in particular during the dairy crisis and at times in other threads was inappropriate and conduct unbecoming of a professional. Even though I don't post in my professional capacity on here (and some may have noticed I try and avoid giving specific tax advice for professional reasons) there is still an obligation to conduct myself in a reasonable and fair manner and be respectful of others opinions and in a manner consistent with this sites terms and conditions and consistent with how a professional person should conduct themselves at all times.

I failed that standard miserably during the dairy crisis and was far too dogmatic, arrogant and opinionated and I really want to sincerely apologize to Tawawera publishing the owner of the site, Vince the administrator, STMOD for all the work I caused them and especially to loyal shareholders of Heartland for causing them angst and concern.
The way I dogmatically articulated my opinion was disgraceful, entirely inappropriate, disrespectful to others who held a different view and arrogant. The period of the dairy crisis in 2015 and through most of 2016 was a time of great stress for dairy farmers and I understand that it caused a lot of angst in the farming community. I should have been far more sensitive to that.

Without in any way trying to diminish or minimize the harm I caused by way of some explanation Mrs Beagle and I went through a torrid time during the GFC both at a family level with what our two kids were doing and the GFC had a profound effect on us both financially and from a psychological perspective it definitely left a huge scar. This left me hypersensitive to risk within financial institutions and I got carried away with the possible impact on banks and certainly got more than a little carried away with warning about the risks.

Even if the message is right, (and I'm not suggesting it was), if the manner in which the message is delivered is profoundly wrong then its becomes totally wrong.
Although a few people thanked me for pointing out the risks at the time and although HBL shares did underperform the NZX50 during the dairy crisis the inappropriateness of my actions may have caused a lot of stress for others and it is to them I wish to offer this sincere apology.

I don't wish to receive any support of credit for eventually making this apology which I should have done a very long time ago. If anyone has any concerns that I'm getting a bit "yappy" in regard to any particular subject in the future, please send me a pm expressing your concern as one thing I am sure of in life is that we all need checks and balances.

Heartland definitely did the right thing supporting dairy farmers through the crisis and dairy has recovered nicely. I was far too arrogant thinking I could predict the future in terms of predicting gloom and doom and accept that most commodities are cyclical in terms of their pricing.

Let me finish this post by thanking Tawawera publishing for providing this site free of charge to us all and I am sure countless people have learned a lot on here including myself and also thanking Vince and STMOD for the hard work they do to provide this wonderful site for us all to enjoy and learn for each other.

A special thank you to Percy and Joshuatree for having the courage to point out the error of my ways. Please feel free to pm me if I err again.

[percy]

We all have made mistakes.
A very brave apology.

[dabsman]

I don't personally think you should feel the need to apologize for a position you took. I think you need to be strong and voice your opinions even if unpopular. It's the state of the world now that anyone that holds an opinion outside of the populus views should be cut down. We are going backwards in free thought. Good on you for wanting to say something - that is your right. I always enjoy your opinion and on the back of your comments I've picked up ATM at $6 and SUM at an average at $4.60 after I was compelled to look closer at them. Cheers for all the opinion

[minimoke]

A storm must have passed through since I last looked on here.

It must have been quite the storm!

[CD_CHCH]

Hi Beagle - I'm a long-time lurker on here but this is my first ever post. It takes a big man to publicly apologise - kudos to you for doing so especially since you were simply stating your points of view. While I may not have always agreed with everything you posted it has been helpful to hear your thoughts and opinions even when they were contrary to others, even more so as I have a holding of HBL shares. I have viewed your thoughts and opinions on different companies with interest and overall feel your posts make ST a better and more valuable resource to newbie investors such as myself. Please keep posting your thoughts on various companies as opinions such as yours and Percy's help us newbies find our way as we attempt to navigate through the diverse and often confusing world of shares.

[Joshuatree]

The Beagle has landed, a big hat tip to you . Growth and unfolding in action. Inspiring stuff thank you.
I write down quotes and stuff i value so i can learn from hopefully.heres one i like, no author unfort.

"I understand this old world resistance to change and accepting it, its one of the safety vests humans arm themselves with against the fear /risk of the new vs the security and perceived safety of the familiar, that dugout hole in the ground"

[davflaws]

Roger- I hit you with a rolled up newspaper once for yapping at one of my hobby horses. As I said at the time, I generally value and recognise your knowledge, professionalism and opinions. It is never easy to apologise, and I admire and respect your post above.
Very best wishes.

[RGR367]

Beagle might have posted something I've totally missed reading and/or comprehending at all being negative. Or is it because I got HBL big time when it was still less than 120 Whatever it was Beagle, carry on. The fact I noticed it not meant it wasn't at all harmful to my holdings. So TY still.