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  1. #1041
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I don't have ready computer access to market depth, so I wasn't aware of so many shares being for sale at under a buck. Thanks for that. We are talking $35k of shares here (or a bit less). In capital market terms this is not big money, even for the NZX. But if there is virtually no-one on the buy side you are right. The share price will only go one way



    This business is not about NTA. It is about cashflow. If you acquire other job agency businesses based on their 'business connections' (which is the way AGL has been expanding their white collar offering), then you end up swapping cash for 'nothing tangible'. If you then keep paying good dividends from your cashflow, then this is how you can end up with a negative tangible assets on the balance sheet. AGL could stop paying dividends to increase their net tangible assets at any time. But that would not increase their attractiveness as an investment, for this dividend hound at least.

    I do know that AGL have been making good money on the Maorisation of of corporate governance, which includes Maori tribal appointments to regional councils and to governance structures for 3 waters , or 10 waters or whatever it became. I imagine that the coming 'Luxonsiation' of this process may affect future returns in this business domain.

    SNOOPY

    Thanks Snoopy - so another one with a similar MO to MFB

    The recent Div pattern in higher deposit rate times wont be helping

    With possibly a reset on where future Biz is or isn't in the turbulence, current Div (a fraction of a year or two back) coming under potential further pressure in the downdrafts, might be inspiring market nerves

    The 6.0c & 8.0 cps dividend shots were nice while the party rocked along with music blasting ..
    Last edited by nztx; 01-12-2023 at 03:56 AM.

  2. #1042
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    Thanks Snoopy - so another one with a similar MO to MFB

    The recent Div pattern in higher deposit rate times wont be helping

    With possibly a reset on where future Biz is or isn't in the turbulence, current Div (a fraction of a year or two back) coming under potential further pressure in the downdrafts, might be inspiring market nerves

    The 6.0c & 8.0 cps dividend shots were nice while the party rocked along with music blasting ..
    I wouldn't draw a parallel with MFB, which rode high on the Covid-19 wave.

    What used to be the heart of the Accordant business, the AWF blue collar recruitment arm, which brought in seasonal workers from overseas, was severely impacted by Covid-19. That division should be starting to get back on track now. In more recent times much of the white collar recruitment has been on 'pause' until the full effect and objectives of a pending change in government became clearer. With that uncertainty removed, such 'pending hires' can now proceed.

    What I expect in the next reporting period for Accordant is that some parts of the business will be up, while others will be down. Accordant does not do well in severe recessions (the figurative economic winter) . But neither does it do well when the economy is performing strongly and more recruitment is done by companies directly (the figurative economic summer). Accordant actually performs best in the economic spring and autumn, where opportunities are nuanced. That time is right now.

    SNOOPY
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  3. #1043
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    Wonder what materially lower than $2m means ….maybe code for a LOSS

    From the update …Resulting revenues are down 9% year to date, with net profit predicted to be materially lower than the $2.0 million reported for the prior year.

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...364/414170.pdf
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1044
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Still pretty upbeat about the future ….that’s good so no worries
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #1045
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    So .... are we going to get a divy?
    Or on a more serious note, is it a good bet going forward? Actually 'going forward' always amuses me because we can't go backwards, well not in time anyway.

  6. #1046
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    Last year 2023 (from 31 Mar 2023 Annual Report )

    T/over $227.4 M

    NPAT $ 2.0 M


    Rip out 9% on the Revenue in 2023 = $20.50 M in revenue shaved off


    Now how much of that Revenue / Surplus is variable - that is clipping the ticket on hours etc ?


    ---


    Half year Report released 6 months 30 Sep 2023

    T/over $ 112.1 M

    NPAT $ 1.164 M


    EPS 3.4 cps

    DPS 3.0 cps



    Int Div paid 27.10.23 3.0 cps + Imp credits




    The Sep 2023 Accounts had Retained Earnings / Reserves at just aggregate $3.944 M

    $1.014 M of that shot out the door in the Oct 2023 3.0 cps Div.


    On a vast Revenue dive & presumably similar lighter earnings in turbulent times - is it prudent
    to pay a Div or will what has been paid in Oct 2023 Interim be the sum total for 2024 year ?


    Snoops is the Expert on these guys, but from what I'm seeing it looks pretty
    fine if not ominous message of possible Dividend now Goneburger


    SP close today $ 0.85 - may suggest the market is saying Div gone in that ..
    Last edited by nztx; 04-03-2024 at 06:22 PM.

  7. #1047
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nor View Post
    So .... are we going to get a divy?
    Or on a more serious note, is it a good bet going forward? Actually 'going forward' always amuses me because we can't go backwards, well not in time anyway.
    at interims they had $24.5m of LT debt (and current assets only match current liabs), I don't think they should be paying a dividend.

    they've had too much debt for too long (why I sold) now I fear they might be punished as a result

  8. #1048
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Wonder what materially lower than $2m means ….maybe code for a LOSS

    From the update …Resulting revenues are down 9% year to date, with net profit predicted to be materially lower than the $2.0 million reported for the prior year.

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...364/414170.pdf

    I have just been looking at the Madison goodwill on the books. It totals $13.223m. This was easily justified in AR2022 with five years of expected sales growth at 1.5% per year, coupled with modelled terminal sales growth of 1.5% carrying on after that. Sales expectations were up at Madison looking forward to FY2023 . That 'Madison goodwill' continued to 'look good' based on 2.5% sales growth over 5 years coupled with a modelled terminal sales growth of 2.5% after that. Actual sales numbers are buried within the wider 'white collar' job segment. But what is the betting that management were evaluating a five year 3.5% p.a. growth plan with a terminal 3.5% p.a. annual growth expectation after that for the FY2024 annual result, before the auditors double checking that goodwill cried 'enough'?

    From the link above:
    "Whilst Madison have experienced the same decline in government contracting, the more widespread slowdown in temporary and permanent entry level and support roles has driven a 20% drop in revenues and we therefore expect to review the carrying goodwill value for the business unit as of 31st March 2024."

    A 20% drop in revenue and the accompanying profit fall following on from already distressed white collar segment profit levels (segment profits fell over the white collar divisions over FY2023, see AR2023 p39, even without allowing for any accretive profit from the Hobson Leavy acquisition AR2023 p75)), is huge.

    It is hard to assess exactly what has gone so wrong at Madisons. It has been all downhill since they lost (did not win) the last census contract, while hiring more recruitment agents in anticipation of more such work. We have had the guardian angel and founder of Madison's, Wynnis. retire from the board during FY2023. Granted she hasn't been in the day to day running of Madisons for a long time. But it does seem a lot of these acquired agencies are founded by 'larger than life personalities'. With Wynnis gone, for those running Madisons now it is 'just a job': Wynnis replaced by a 'Lose-ys' at the top of the tree at Madison.

    Do Accordant 'bite the bullet' and write of all $13.225m of that Madison goodwill? Sack 'Lose-ys' and try to make a fresh start at Madison? If last years total group profit was a declared $2m, and this years is looking to be well down on that figure, then a goodwill write off (even if only partial), must swamp remaining operational profits (if any) to create a significant headline loss for the year. Thankfully most of that loss will be 'non-cash' though. That Madison acquisition well predates CEO Jason Cherrington coming on board at Accordant. If I were Jase, I would be looking to put any further 'shadow from Madison' going forwards to bed. So a significant declared loss predicted for the Accordant group over FY2024, I think, is a given. But even if Accordant canned the final 3cps dividend, that would only save $1.085m - room for hope for another divvie payment?

    Looking at IR2024 p62, the revolving credit facility was reduced to $23m (down from $30m), and a 'trade finance facility' of $15m replaced an overdraft facility of $8m. So overall finance facilities available stayed steady, although I can't see Accordant paying a dividend out of their 'trade finance facility'. The revolving credit used at half year was $18m, say $19m now following the subsequent payment of the interim dividend. So I think there is still room for a 3cps dividend here. But that last sentence on the referenced Accordant profit update is ominous:
    "We are planning to further expand our offerings in FY25 to meet long term demand in additional growth markets."

    So Accordant still keen on buying more complimentary job agencies? No spare cash for shareholders this time around, because 'we can spend our earnings better than you shareholders can' (and 'more debt would be good'?) Perhaps the great acquisitor, ex-CEO Simon Bennett - now a hired hand specializing in acquisitions - needs to go, and let new CEO 'our Jase' sort out some of the messes that have been accumulating first?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 01-04-2024 at 03:48 PM.
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  9. #1049
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    Quote Originally Posted by jg8512 View Post
    at interims they had $24.5m of LT debt (and current assets only match current liabs), I don't think they should be paying a dividend.

    they've had too much debt for too long (why I sold) now I fear they might be punished as a result


    No Div, a Cap Raise perhaps on back of large Loss needing good clean up ?

    Only 33 M shares on issue - but is this outfit still worth 80 - 85cps ?

    Time for a Management Buyout / privatisation to get it out of the Spotlight or not ?

    Peaking over $2 in May 2022 - it's been mostly downhill since then..
    Last edited by nztx; 05-03-2024 at 03:19 PM.

  10. #1050
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    [QUOTE=Snow Leopard;58020]For those that are interested

    quote:
    NZXR
    09/06/2005
    GENERAL

    REL: 1130 HRS New Zealand Exchange Limited

    GENERAL: NZXR: Allied Work Force IPO to raise $11.4 million

    Allied Work Force IPO to raise $11.4 million

    Specialist labour hire firm Allied Work Force Group Limited today announced
    that it plans to list on the NZSX and raise $11.4 million in an initial
    public offering of ordinary shares.

    The share offer opens on June 13 and the company expects that its shares will
    be listed on July 6. ABN AMRO Craigs are lead managers of the offer.

    Founded 17 years ago by its managing director and major shareholder Simon
    Hull, Allied operates nationally and is New Zealand's largest specialist blue
    collar labour hire company. It provides on-demand labour across an industrial
    spectrum that includes firms operating in the distribution, manufacturing,
    processing, infrastructure and construction industries.

    Simon Hull says the company has a 'crew' of around 8000 skilled and
    semi-skilled workers who are available to be placed in some 6000 client
    businesses.

    In the year to March 31, 2006, the company is projecting a net profit after
    tax (pre goodwill amortisation) of $3.1 million on revenue of $74.2m. Based
    on the offer price of $1.50 per share the company will list with a market
    capitalisation of $39.2 million.

    "The business has grown on the back of demand for more flexible labour
    arrangements," says Simon Hull.

    "We believe we are now one of the largest employers in the country in terms
    of the number of IRD returns we file each year. This year we expect to supply
    4.4 million hours of work to our crew and our customers."

    "We make it easy for businesses to use casual labour, which means that they
    can get the necessary work done without incurring the long-term costs
    associated with having a permanent labour force.

    "For many companies we open the door to a more cost-effective business model
    that allows them to cope with seasonal trends, special projects and overflow
    work."

    He says the on-hire business model also provides benefits to members of the
    Allied crew, in that as well as enjoying attractive wage rates and
    conditions, they get to handle a variety of work and to develop a range of
    different skills.

    ACC information suggests that, based on the wages paid to on-hire workers,
    the New Zealand market has grown by 56% in the four years to 2004.

    The company's board is made up Simon Hull, Allied's chief executive, Greg
    Webster, and the independent directors Ted van Arkel and chairman Ross
    Keenan.

    Mr Keenan says Allied is a hands-on, can-do sort of business that has
    expanded rapidly in the past few years through organic growth and more
    recently by acquisition.

    "We believe that growth is far from over yet and part of the reason for
    listing is to position the company for further acquisitions."

    Mr Keenan says that after the IPO Simon Hull will retain a 66.8% stake in the
    company, and will continue to lead the business through its next phase of
    development.

    "At this stage he is only selling down to the extent required to meet the
    spread requirements of the NZX and to provide some liquidity in the market,"
    he says.

    Allied Work Force is projecting an annualised gross dividend yield of 9.48%
    based on a fully imputed net dividend of 9.5c per share for the financial
    year ending 31 March, 2006. The company expects to pay dividends of 70% to
    80% of net profit after tax, subject to prudent future investment
    requirements.

    Allied has 90 full time staff and operates from 21 locations around New
    Zealand in addition to the 'crew' in its 8000 strong labour pool.

    The company uses its own software and proprietary systems for managing
    on-hire labour and its rate of successfully placing 'crew' into available
    roles is approximately 98%.

    Allied estimates that the New Zealand on-hire labour market is made up of
    around 15,000 workers, or some 0.7%
    Back in 2005 that was

    Snowie didn’t join in the fun

    IPO price was $1.50 …..went to $1.52 after the open but closed day 1=at the $1.50

    Today price is $0.76

    Has it ever been lower?

    Been some journey eh
    Last edited by winner69; 17-03-2024 at 04:23 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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