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27-04-2020, 10:53 AM
#111
Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
Very pleased I decided to avoid this one back in 2017 in the $25 range. Some very difficult years ahead. They should just scrap their $250m Queenstown expansion plans. Tourism volumes are likely to stay low for many, many years.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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27-04-2020, 05:43 PM
#112
Truth be told Beagle your analysis helped me pull the trigger when the price dropped 50%. I reckon taking a five year view it is a safer bet than Auckland Airport. Here is my guess - within six months Korea and Canada will be back to near normal. Their Queenstown, Singapore and Rotorua operations will be at about 75% of the recent peak. Christchurch Casino will be about 90%. The Queenstown hotel will be bundled with Gondola packages to keep up occupancy rates. Sheffield will go ahead but the NZ projects will be right sized (unless the Local and Central Governments view the upgrades as infrastructure and reduce the redtape)
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27-04-2020, 06:02 PM
#113
To be clear, at no point have I considered this stock worth buying otherwise I would have actioned it myself. I see the rebulbing of tourism very differently to you Arthur but I wish you well and hope I am wrong. I wouldn't own AIA, AIR, SKC or THL either.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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05-05-2020, 09:05 AM
#114
Originally Posted by Beagle
To be clear, at no point have I considered this stock worth buying otherwise I would have actioned it myself. I see the rebulbing of tourism very differently to you Arthur but I wish you well and hope I am wrong.
Beagle's worst fears confirmed?
https://www.odt.co.nz/business/skyli...ing-staff-half
Half of all staff gone. But pig headedly going ahead with the $200m gondola upgrade in Queenstown. I must say I was surprised to see the staff cuts extend to Korea where I thought a path out of the Covid crisis was becoming clearer.
SNOOPY
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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05-05-2020, 09:57 AM
#115
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Beagle's worst fears confirmed?
https://www.odt.co.nz/business/skyli...ing-staff-half
Half of all staff gone. But pig headedly going ahead with the $200m gondola upgrade in Queenstown. I must say I was surprised to see the staff cuts extend to Korea where I thought a path out of the Covid crisis was becoming clearer.
SNOOPY
But asking for Govt infrastructure funding to assist with their expansion...…!!
Probably a telling case in terms of jobs/employment. The 600+ staff are losing their jobs from when the wage subsidy runs out. So circa 6 weeks through, 6 weeks to go.
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05-05-2020, 10:53 AM
#116
Originally Posted by whatsup
Yes double or triple wammy , cost over runs, tourist drop off and constant increasing over heads, not a good mix !!
Not surprised with todays only surprised that it took so long, " you cannot push water uphill with a rake " !
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06-05-2020, 09:07 PM
#117
Ngai Tahu Tourism today announced they were cutting their staff from 348 to 39! Most finishing in June or July.
Most of their businesses are going into "hibernation", including the Shotover Jet. That will be a killer for Qtown, being so iconic.
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06-05-2020, 09:51 PM
#118
Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
Ngai Tahu Tourism today announced they were cutting their staff from 348 to 39! Most finishing in June or July.
Most of their businesses are going into "hibernation", including the Shotover Jet. That will be a killer for Qtown, being so iconic.
Yes just brutal .... worse ever outcome pure nightmare for the likes of Qutown jobs
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
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06-05-2020, 10:17 PM
#119
Originally Posted by Arthur
Truth be told Beagle your analysis helped me pull the trigger when the price dropped 50%. I reckon taking a five year view it is a safer bet than Auckland Airport. Here is my guess - within six months Korea and Canada will be back to near normal. Their Queenstown, Singapore and Rotorua operations will be at about 75% of the recent peak. Christchurch Casino will be about 90%. The Queenstown hotel will be bundled with Gondola packages to keep up occupancy rates. Sheffield will go ahead but the NZ projects will be right sized (unless the Local and Central Governments view the upgrades as infrastructure and reduce the redtape)
Like your contrarian longterm plan there Arthur which eliminates most of us who want results NOW!
Zigging while everyone else is zagging, hope it goes well and yes great money making assets there that cant be easily replicated.
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07-05-2020, 03:07 PM
#120
Thanks Joshuatree. I'll credit Beagle and Snoopy if it goes right and put on my big boy pants if it does not work. The way I think about it investing is taking a long term view. I financed it by selling a chunk of my Blis (bought at an average of below one cent) also got into PAZ at less than 6 and Syft at diddly squat when they were in it donkey deep. I've had my share of failures, but they never loose more than 100%. I suspect my Skyline will be a hold forever. There is an irrational, but worthy feeling of owning a business that you can support. I'm hoping that Beagle will be lured back to the Skyline Buffet with a few mates (but eat the potatoes and not the prawns)
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