Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
Thanks appreciate it - probably not much difference from dollars to numbers considering the volume of loans you've had - assuming they are all about the same size.

Since Harmoney numbers are stated as percent per annum, your numbers appear mostly a little lower than what Harmoney have suggested for the old rates:

Actual Rate / 2 Harmoney per annum (avg for grade)
A 0.00% 0.17%
B 0.60% 0.53%
C 0.60% 0.60%
D 1.65% 2.00%
E 6.00% 4.28%
F 7.15% 10.62%


E Grade being the only significant exception.
Not taking into account how you've selected loans, which would no doubt influence the comparison, and that the period is only 2 years so not a full representation of the life of loans.

Added: Probably shouldn't have based this on 2 years as the age of loans varies from 2 years to 6 months...which would likely bring it much closer or a bit above Harmoney suggested values...still in the same ballpark either way.
Assuming that my loans were evenly spread over the period, then the newest loan was only about 6 months (December 2016 as at 1 July 2017) and the oldest 24 months (June 2015 as at 1 July 2017). So a simple average is 15 months old (6+24)/2. So dividing my defaults by 2 is not correct. Should be 1.25.

Actual Rate /1.25 Harmoney per annum (avg for grade)
A 0.00% 0.17%
B 0.96% 0.53%
C 0.96% 0.60%
D 2.64% 2.00%
E 9.60% 4.28%
F 11.44% 10.62%

I had always maintain that Harmoney old default rates were too low. My calculated default/interest for the loans during that period is about 13% (based on Harmoney's figures) but the actual was closer to 20%. E grade was especially bad. And it was interesting to see that Harmoney new default rates actually increases (Scorecard 1.5)for the new E grade compared to their old ones whereas the default rates for all other grades decreases.