OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Lease]

Nice post Waiken. The numbers all look very positive and mostly ahead of FB. My struggle is how this does not transform into stronger Underlying Profit. Any ideas? Also, I'm not sure what PE to apply to OCA yet as it's so close to a proven and accepted model but not quite there yet. Of course this is the million dollar question.

Mudfish, this was also my initial question in terms of Underlying Profit. James108 assisted me sort it out. On page 20 of presentation shows development margin drop from over 30% to around 25%. As previous periods they sold more premium Auckland sites, now they sell down sites in more regional areas thus development margin comes down. It makes sense and 25% development margin is reasonably well.

[Snow Leopard]

Provided the long-term outlook, and thus my determination of fair value, does not take a knock, I will be contented.

By the time I have had my breakfast and started my analysis with the first cup of coffee of the day, I dare say you lot will have discussed the result in detail.

Coffee consumed and cat contented.

Still trades at a discount to what I consider fair value but not cheap enough for me to buy more. It is currently my #3 holding on the NZX

[Mudfish]

Mudfish, this was also my initial question in terms of Underlying Profit. James108 assisted me sort it out. On page 20 of presentation shows development margin drop from over 30% to around 25%. As previous periods they sold more premium Auckland sites, now they sell down sites in more regional areas thus development margin comes down. It makes sense and 25% development margin is reasonably well.

Cheers Lease, I'll have a dig into this. Either way, F and B seem to have it 90% sorted and they predict good growth over the next 5 years or so. With the share price holding well, it leads me to believe investors are now believing in OCA's business model so could soon well be a boring steady growth from here. I'm hoping so.

[Gerald]

Cheers Lease, I'll have a dig into this. Either way, F and B seem to have it 90% sorted and they predict good growth over the next 5 years or so. With the share price holding well, it leads me to believe investors are now believing in OCA's business model so could soon well be a boring steady growth from here. I'm hoping so.

Funny how it's always the "next" half year or FY with OCA. Love how companies like to bring out one abstract metric that improved to headline the result and hide the more shody ones at the back of the cupboard.


Anyway, sold some this morning at $1.49, time will tell if it was a good idea.

[Vince]

It isn't done on a whim - Vince is quite light handed really.

Quite right Dobby.

[Vince]

I agree the Beagle has a massive depth of knowledge and it would be a shame to loose him from ST completely. I am guessing his latest ban was to do with his further comments on the ATM thread about Couta. He seems unable to stop himself commenting on Couta, which is not only weird its unfair on Couta and it does need to stop. Time to move on

Well said and a totally correct statement.

[Waltzing]

with the pressures on the building industry in NZ over the next 12 months the margin of 25% is the key going forward.

Only time will tell if this margin can be kept as supply and demand put pressure on the system.

[dompf]

back at desk on monday , but a quick note i thought i would add it was a disappointing result , no div increase and margin erosion continues. i sold today.
sum is my preferred play in the sector.

I may have some bull... shares as I topped up. I will treat them with kindness.

[Bjauck]

I agree the Beagle has a massive depth of knowledge and it would be a shame to loose him from ST completely. I am guessing his latest ban was to do with his further comments on the ATM thread about Couta. He seems unable to stop himself commenting on Couta, which is not only weird its unfair on Couta and it does need to stop. Time to move on

Ok thanks. I haven't been following the ATM thread recently. Beagles can be stubborn and reluctant to let things go

[Shareguy]

I thought this was a good result for a difficult year. Cash flow and Nav stood out and lower divi but debt reduced . I’m in for the long term and think this is a great business that will continue to do well. The land they own in st helliers is a gold mine ..

Disc , I have a large holding and will continue to accumulate on dips.