If National wins ...

[elZorro]

No he didn't. Look EZ everyone knows you are star struck by the guy, but for me he just came over as the sleeze ball he is. Nobody can trust one word coming from his mouth unless you are star struck like EZ. I fell off my seat when he said something like "it does not matter if the Labour website was open or not, you can not copy its material or go into read it". Hello, that means we are all breaking the Law by reading this post on this website because it is open and you EZ, will have to stop quoting from websites. They are open and according to D.C you "EZ" must stop it. And his wife is a Lawyer, he should know better. D.C failed to add that Hager and KDC hacking computers is completely illegal.
Cunliffe is two faced and only says what suits him. He wants to be P.M? You have just got to laugh at the hypocrisy of the man who is sorry to be a man.

Don't be hoodwinked Cuzzie. IPSOS poll out today, on a very important metric. Who out of David Cunliffe or John Key would you rather have a beer with?

This is a multiple choice question, with two choices. It's totally loaded as a poll, because National has been pushing the idea of a blokey, jokey John Key for years.

The poll concluded before the book came out, so if now, a new poll was conducted with questions more like "Who do you trust out of these two" or "Who is more likely to help put up your wages" or "Whose policies will help you get into a home of your own", then we might see a different result.

[elZorro]

iPredict money getting back into Nats again, punters bailing from Labour

Money based 'poll' like this better than any other poll, money speaks

Of course we all know which side generally has more money, W69. But there are in theory a lot more on the left, and each person only gets to spend $2500 at most, in a 6 month period. (Those are the rules, anyway). You must be getting tapped out by now, surely.

In any case, I see that Labour's chances of having David Cunliffe as the PM later on this year, are quickly improving.

Someone at Exceltium had better close iPredict off for the week, before it's too embarrassing.

[Banksie]

iPredict money getting back into Nats again, punters bailing from Labour

Money based 'poll' like this better than any other poll, money speaks

There has been a surge on NZ Minister to depart in 2014, I wonder you the punters think will be leaving?

Mmmhhh, I am not sure I can see the big shift to Nats W69. I only see a 1c improvement in the National Prime Minister after next election.

[Cuzzie]

Good on you Bob- His words below.

If this election was a boxing match, the referee would have stopped the fight months back given the non-stop punishment and eight counts David Cunliffe's taken.

But it's not, and although rare, there are examples of fighters taking a shellacking round after round, then pulling off a shock KO punch, late victory.

That needs qualification, however. There's certainly no cases of a fighter repeatedly being floored by his own self-inflicted blows, as has occurred with Cunliffe. In those circumstances he'd be disqualified for bringing the sport into disrepute.

Other sports offer the battered Labour leader more hope with last minute come-from-behind victories, particularly rugby, tennis and football. But seeking solace from sporting history, Cunliffe will derive most from the greatest game of all, namely test cricket. It shares a significant feature with politics, unique in sport but part of its allure, namely in not being contested fairly. Winning the toss can be crucial; likewise a weather change can make a huge difference favouring one side.

So too with politics, the governing party having an inbuilt advantage, this reversing after three terms when voters seek fresh faces. That's hardly the case with the Key government, moreso as Labour's proffered fresh faces are tokenistic unknowns. Also, bad weather is traditionally bad for Labour.

Putting aside John Key tossing it in to become a Hare Krishna, to cause an upset Labour must target the middle floating voters and the non-voting lower-income sector. With the floating voters, a devastating rout over John Key in the televised leaders' debate would make a difference. That's unlikely; indeed the opposite is more probable.

Still, remember 2002 after Peter Dunne impressed in the leaders' debate and ended up with nine MPs -- most, one suspects, hitherto unknown to him. But the polls suggest National's support is firmly intact and the votes up for grabs are those Labour's lost. If Cunliffe tries to buy these with targeted largesse expenditure, as he's doing, then he could lose more as increasingly voters appreciate it's their money politicians are offering to spend. This irresponsibility simply consolidates National's marketed image of being financially prudent. In targeting the elderly with doctor visits paid by taxpayers, Cunliffe invades Winston's support base, yet he cannot form a government without New Zealand First reaching 5 per cent and throwing its support behind Labour.

Using Matt McCarten as the master tactician plainly hasn't worked. Matt's imagery is vintage 1935, which may be a contributing factor in the disastrous polls. His purported skill is getting out the vote with the non-voting low-income sector, although there's no evidence of significant past general election successes.

Reverting to sporting parallels and this election, during Muhammad Ali's long career, wherever he fought, an accompanying entourage of flashy black men with their dazzling mistresses were there. Bedecked in appallingly bad-taste, massive chunky gold necklaces and rings (that's the men; the women were elegant), they arrived at the fight destination a week early. They weren't boxing aficionados or Ali fans but instead professional gamblers who were living the high-life through exploiting a standard human foible relevant to this election. That is to rationalise an outcome aligned to one's wishes, despite the overwhelming evidence against it. Thus, when Ali fought an obviously inferior opponent with absolutely no chance, they'd offer odds so extreme the opponent's died-in-the-wool fan base would succumb to temptation and be in it. It was like offering a million to one against night following day. Do that and silly buggers would be in it, just as with the Ali betting cottage industry.

Similar wishful thinking is occurring with Labour supporters despite the election outcome appearing a foregone conclusion. The pundits are obliged to write about it, thus persist with endless rationalisations as to why, despite the polls but through minor party machinations, there could be a Labour government. Meanwhile, Labour's increasingly despairing faithful, the equivalent of those long-odds fans of Ali's opponents, fill talk-back and the internet with their delusions. Ali did eventually lose to Leon Spinks in a huge upset but it cost those gamblers nothing, for Spinks had no devoted fan base to be seduced by what would have been extraordinarily long odds. That result was analogous to Colin Craig becoming Prime Minister. If the TAB was offering wagers on the election they'd probably be offering about five to one against a Labour victory, and as with Ali's opponents' deluded fans, would find plenty of takers.

The prohibition on them offering bets on elections or anything other than sport is regretful. What a pleasure if one could bang a tenner on whether Winston will get up again, or on Labour or the Conservatives' percentage vote, or who will win the Napier seat, and endless other contingencies. It would certainly add a fun dimension to a contest now tiresome given its obvious outcome.

[Cuzzie]

One has-been attack dog and a fawning novice attack dog wannabe agreeing that they're both normal. Does that surprise anyone?

I'm surprised you would make that statement belg haha. BYW, phone call received. Don't think I'll get another one, depends on how stupid one can be I suppose.

[Cuzzie]

Given how stupid you so often sound I suspect you'll be welcomed by Slater as his last remaining friend. Be careful, Cuz. Snuggling up to that viper is unlikely to do you any favours. He'll sell you out in next to no time if it suites him. And if you've no money to support him, then it'll be sooner rather than later.

But that would only be in your small world, the same small world that gives D.C 9% of the voting population that want the apologetic wonder to be our next P.M. In my world over 50% of the voting public want J.K to be our next P.M. Can you spot the difference. You have a big voice in your small world belg, but even given that fact - I can barely hear you. What did you say?

[Banksie]

Did anyone see the the "at the end of the day" counter on Campbell Live late night. That had me chuckling.

But at the end of the day I guess I should be voting on the policies not the overuse of tired idioms .

[fungus pudding]

Did anyone see the the "at the end of the day" counter on Campbell Live late night. That had me chuckling.

But at the end of the day I guess I should be voting on the policies not the overuse of tired idioms .

Try counting 'the reality is' from Stephen Joyce or Winston First. Or the current favourite 'to be fair' from any number of them.

[Sgt Pepper]

Ah, but at the end of day its your idol Key that we're all laughing at.

Indeed
John Keys repetitive " at the end of the day" is a bit tiresome don't you think Belg. Personally I think it could be accounted for by a faulty chip implant (CT4503-12b) which is Crosby Textor 4503-12b) . The trouble is, you see, Crosby Textor launched their robot (JK 4503) in November 2008 without fully testing it. Robot JK 4503 usually is fairly independent, apparently the software even allows it to take itself off to Hawaii every year, and it can even play golf. However lately its controllers at Crosby Textor have noted a bizarre , almost emotional attachment to a certain Minister of Justice which they, their software designers, nor anyone else can explain. The controllers are concerned as this aberration seem to override the robots self preservation module.There was real concern two days ago when JK 4503 was being interviewed that his power source was being rapidly depleted. They have reminded Bill English that JK 4503 MUST be plugged in for recharging overnight. The good news however is that apparently the software design that enables the Robot JK 4503 to withhold the facts and blame others is fully functional, to their great relief.

[Banksie]

indeed.......

roflmao.......