ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

Decided I'm going to take an extended break from the forum, my wife won't let me have the changed password for 6 months to start, after that I doubt I'll be back. I'm a go big or go home kinda person and have excelled in quite a few areas of life because of that and I'm not about to change a formula that has worked well for me through the years. Some no doubt will be happy to see me go, thats their prerogative, it is what it is. Adios Couta.

Has it really worked that well mate ? As I have said many times to you before I often think you and your family would be better off with a very sizeable part of your money split evenly between Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin. Please spend some time reflecting upon what the Bible says about diversification https://www.randelltiongson.com/dive...and-the-bible/

“But divide your investments among many places,
for you do not know what risks might lie ahead.”

— Ecclesiastes 11:2. New Living Translation.

[Getty]

mmm, but isnt that the same book that says 'go forth & multiply'?

[Greekwatchdog]

For Barrs brief update

Baby Steps Forward


OUTPERFORM
The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) Annual Meeting provided little in the way of new information, reiterating its FY21 guidance. A
positive takeaway was indications of "early green shoots" in the under-pressure daigou channel. ATM's channel mix is shifting
rapidly, with strong performance in direct channels being overshadowed by daigou pressure. We view this as temporary and
expect a return to growth from 2H21. Current investor focus appears firmly centered on FY21 earnings downgrade risk,
which is unlikely to be resolved until the timeline of daigou re-ordering and realignment of channels is clearer. Looking
through short-term earnings volatility, we see an attractive medium-term growth runway, with our confidence boosted by
recent proprietary channel checks in the key offline market. Valuation metrics remain attractive (PE of ~25x, or ~21x adjusted
for cash and US losses), particularly given ATM's strong free cashflow generation and high returns. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
What did we learn from the Annual Meeting?
Key issue creating debate — when will growth return and is there a downgrade still to come?
Market attention appears centered on one over-arching question — will ATM downgrade its FY21 (particularly 2H21) guidance?
Despite the reiteration of guidance and channel commentary, which if anything was incrementally more positive than the last update,
this question will likely remain an overhang until the 2H21 outlook is clearer. ATM is going through a dramatic, rapid shift in channel
mix which makes forecasting more challenging than usual. The issues are well known, however, the timeline (particularly of daigou reordering) is less clear. Our analysis suggests the share price is already factoring in some of the risk (c. 70%). Even under
our downgrade scenario we see attractive value (valuation multiples lift by c. 2x).

[Getty]

Basic Question.

If ya cant get ya opium through ya daigou channel, wouldnt ya just get it online, or down at ya flaming local stockist???

[Beagle]

mmm, but isnt that the same book that says 'go forth & multiply'?

It says many things but about investing it is very clear. https://christiananswers.net/q-eden/...nt-wisdom.html
Proverbs - My favorite book in the Bible, second favorite is Ecclesiastes which contains therein a detailed analysis of the many ironies and conundrums of life.

[Getty]

Qex didnt have any trouble emptying their warehouse...

[Getty]

It says many things but about investing its is very clear. https://christiananswers.net/q-eden/...nt-wisdom.html
Proverbs - My favorite book in the Bible, second favorite is Ecclesiastes which contains therein a detailed analysis of the many ironies and conundrums of life.

I thought there must be a reason it was a best seller.

[Getty]

I just had a brainwave.

Why doesn't ATM latch onto AFT's distribution channel, and share in the 968% increase in profit?

[dobby41]

mmm, but isnt that the same book that says 'go forth & multiply'?

Unfortunately someone got there just before me and I had to go fifth

[carrom74]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/polit...s-in-hong-kong

Could have some negative impact on NZ products getting exported to China... just like Australia