Gold

[SimonHouse]

I'd appreciate your thoughts. If you were going to trade on the price of gold, would you do it by:

1. Trading an ETF linked to the price of gold?
2. Trading actual bullion?
3. Trading a gold miner, and if so, which ones or which country? Aussie miners, US or global players?

Would appreciate some names for me to do some research on? Regards and thanks

[Bobcat.]

I'd appreciate your thoughts. If you were going to trade on the price of gold, would you do it by:

1. Trading an ETF linked to the price of gold?
2. Trading actual bullion?
3. Trading a gold miner, and if so, which ones or which country? Aussie miners, US or global players?

Would appreciate some names for me to do some research on? Regards and thanks

There's more leverage for high rewards (but higher risk) in trading gold digger stocks.

You need to analyse charts and market influences to decide where you believe the PoG is heading.

Most pundits expect it to travel further south now that $1290 and $1260 have been busted. If you decide they're right, stay clear of any diggers with high ASIC (all-in costs) and/or little or no hedging. Also, stick to high grade gold diggers for now. Low grade gold diggers (no matter how big the fields - e.g. SOC) have been finding it too difficult to get financing...and I expect some will fold. Whilst the PoG languishes sub $1400usd, larger players are focussing on higher grades, for good reason.

If however, you decide that the POG will rebound then buy into gold juniors and those with relatively high ASIC (KCN, SBM, PRU, etc) and/or little hedging (TRY, RSG, etc).

Your research. Your money. Your decision.

BC

[Daytr]

I much prefer trading gold explorers & producers than actual gold. If I ever bought gold itself it would probably be just as insurance & not a trade & I would have it where I could touch it as otherwise you still have the same risk as you are trying to insure against. To trade gold I would be trading gold futures as that is where the liquidity is. Options may also be a good bet as volatility is cheap at the moment. By trading diggers you open up yourself to a bunch of risks which can end up being positive or negative. Mostly, management, geological, weather, metallurgical & seismic to name a few, management probably being the key one of the lot.

[Bobcat.]

Silverlakes resources looks interesting. Does anyone know much about this one? I see they did a capital raise to help shut down an inefficient mine and pay back debt. Looks very cheap at only 41% of book value

SLR has been shorted a lot these past two months, and will rebound sharply IMO. They have a small hedge as short-term protection, and good margin even with PoG around $1250usd. Hot copper has a couple of decent threads for more info, and of course read the company reports.

[Hoop]

Post #7436 29th May 2014
...This is a typical signature of phase 1 Bull cycles as most investors are still negative and the volatile bull/bear fights continue..except an alternating of positive and negative signals as well as numerous golden/death crosses..

June 2, 2014, 2:05 p.m. EDT

Gold futures end lower after ‘death cross’
Analysts sees more losses ahead; short holdings at highest in 15 weeks

Usual media headlines...I wonder who the analysts are that Marketwatch refers to.
Most investors still assume a bear market is operating and therefore expect big gains from a continued large falling of gold price to well below 1188...Bull calves offer disappointment to these shorters so lets see how this scenario pans out...A drop well below 1188 proves a cyclic bear cycle still operates...a rise off a shoulder support ~~1200 (H&S pattern) or primary support 1188 proves Phase1 Bull cycle is operating..

[Daytr]

Hi Hoop, I appreciate your posts & I ask the following with sincerity. Do you think you have a bullish bias with your analysis? TA I think is a valuable tool, however it is very open to interpretation & bullish or bearish you can usually find something on a chart to suit your view. I am not saying you are biased, I'm just asking the question if you think you are doing this analysis from a neutral standpoint? I'd appreciate your thoughts. Cheers Daytr

[Skol]

The death cross.

[blackcap]

I've got;

Contrarian investing
Gold Bubble
The Black Swan
Reminiscences of a Stock operator
Manias, Panic and Crashes
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841)
Ponzi's Scheme
Tomorrow's Gold
Freakonomics
Superfreakonomics
Annals of Gullibility

There's lots of books, Amazon have plenty, I find the subject fascinating, there's almost always a bubble somewhere and you can watch psychology in action. Some of them involve a large section of the population like the Albanian Pyramid Schemes that ruined the economy similar to Tulipmania.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramid_schemes_in_Albania

Thanks for providing this list. I am always looking for new inspiration when it comes to selecting reading material. Have gone and ordered one of the above.

[Skol]

Thanks for providing this list. I am always looking for new inspiration when it comes to selecting reading material. Have gone and ordered one of the above.

No problem, Gold Bubble hit the nail on the head, it was written when gold was $1900 and published in 2012.

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop, I appreciate your posts & I ask the following with sincerity. Do you think you have a bullish bias with your analysis? TA I think is a valuable tool, however it is very open to interpretation & bullish or bearish you can usually find something on a chart to suit your view. I am not saying you are biased, I'm just asking the question if you think you are doing this analysis from a neutral standpoint? I'd appreciate your thoughts. Cheers Daytr

Just the TA messenger Daytr.
When Gold makes a new low below 1188 then I will be questioning the cycle reversal.
Coppock Indicator was designed for the DOW but used in other markets as well as a long term reversal indicator (11 months 14 months)from Bear to bull...Its failure rate is very low...so..when playing with the odds, chances are that the Gold cycle has reversed...Granted Daytr nothing is 100% accurate and that is why I'm watching for confirmation points and cyclic reversal behaviour...so far the behavioural patterns show the cyclic reversal...e.g MA crosses both golden and death are theoretically rare during cycles and mainly occurring during the flattening out at the top and bottom of the cycles, at which times investor behaviour lags as humans are somewhat resistant to change and will argue against change by reciting their bias reading of the media and recent past history to support their argument. As most investors are laggers the sheer number will influence the media and there will be undetermined length of time when there will be bull/bear fights (MA crosses)...The denial part comes in when their Bull/bear strategies start to go pear shaped and don't work properly anymore..a small percentage will believe and change their investment to bull strategy yet many will refuse to believe change has arrived...and with each successive B/B fight more investors will convert...e.g I mentioned it will be interesting to see how the latest round (B/B fight) of shorting investment pans out.....As it is very early days we are not yet at the denial stages...so yes Daytr its possible this is a false dawn, but watch to see how well these short trader do...as their outcome could be/not be another reversal confirmation.
As I said way back..I'm accumulating in the fights (dips) (not distributing) 1200 1220 1250.. If the 85-90% odds or what ever they are go against me I sell out below 1188 (say 1170) for a small % loss.. and then at some next buy point recommence the whole execise again

Note: dip buying well away from the top ...not dip buying near the top of the market cycle...e.g Equities

Disc: Have gold explorer/miner