SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[hardt]

1. The disingenuous manner in which SML concealed the margin reduction breeched trust with minority shareholders.
2. This has implications for this years profit and in perpetuity going forward and has a major impact on my growth assumptions.
3. I do not accept the margin reduction posted in another forum, it does not look right at all to me.
4. $37m is a very very poor result no matter how you slice and dice it
5. The overt manner in which the new CEO is chasing being politically correct concerns me
6. Synlait performance was strongly weighted to the first half last year
7. Ice cold trading relations with China could potentially see new product approvals on ice for years.
8. Mega capex won't look so shiny if #7 happens.
9. Growth will be lower and a lot slower than previously thought and doesn't take much in the way of lower growth to dramatically change DCF valuations but you already know that...

An AWFUL LOT has changed in a week and not just with Synlait...

NPAT was 15% higher than 2H18, the marginal pressure was clear to see at FY18 with 74m NPAT following 1H18 of 42m.


1H18 GP per MT 1,400 (up from 800 PCP)
2H18 GP per MT 1,195
1H19 GP per MT 1,164


They had signaled the outlier of 1H18 last year

[nzsharetrade]

NPAT was 15% higher than 2H18, the marginal pressure was clear to see at FY18 with 74m NPAT following 1H18 of 42m.


1H18 GP per MT 1,400 (up from 800 PCP)
2H18 GP per MT 1,195
1H19 GP per MT 1,164


They had signaled the outlier of 1H18 last year

what is GP per MT?

[winner69]

what is GP per MT?

Gross Profit per Metric Ton (Tonne)

[nzsharetrade]

Gross Profit per Metric Ton (Tonne)

Thank you.

[Beagle]

NPAT was 15% higher than 2H18, the marginal pressure was clear to see at FY18 with 74m NPAT following 1H18 of 42m.


1H18 GP per MT 1,400 (up from 800 PCP)
2H18 GP per MT 1,195
1H19 GP per MT 1,164


They had signaled the outlier of 1H18 last year

Margins under pressure for some time now and maga capex on new stainless steel. Suppose shareholders are hoping the Chinese play nice with new approvals...what could possibly go wrong seeing as they're such "responsible fair and reasonable" trade partners and we have such a "warm" trade environment lol
I think John Penno sold shareholders down the river with the new contract with ATM and then left and the new guy is obsessed with politically correct B.S.
I'm completely done punting my financial security on the Chinese playing nice and paying over the top metrics for the privilege but GLTAH.

[nzsharetrade]

Margins under pressure for some time now and maga capex on new stainless steel. Suppose shareholders are hoping the Chinese play nice with new approvals...what could possibly go wrong seeing as they're such "responsible fair and reasonable" trade partners and we have such a "warm" trade environment lol
I think John Penno sold shareholders down the river with the new contract with ATM and then left and the new guy is obsessed with politically correct B.S.
I'm completely done punting my financial security on the Chinese playing nice and paying over the top metrics for the privilege but GLTAH.

have you sold out?

[peat]

Maybe I'm just seeing it through the eyes of a Beagle
beagle-eyes.jpg

but Todays announcement further confirms 'eco' focus as opposed to profitability focus.

The carbon equivalent (CO2-e) saving of this electrode boiler - compared to a coal alternative - is 13,714 tonnes CO2-e/year AND YET

the operating costs are around double over a ten-year period.

[mondograss]

Does this take into account emissions trading costs? If I remember rightly the cost is $25 per 2 tonnes of CO2. And that's likely to get more expensive over the coming years as opposed to cheaper.

[Hectorplains]

Margins under pressure for some time now and maga capex on new stainless steel. Suppose shareholders are hoping the Chinese play nice with new approvals...what could possibly go wrong seeing as they're such "responsible fair and reasonable" trade partners and we have such a "warm" trade environment lol
I think John Penno sold shareholders down the river with the new contract with ATM and then left and the new guy is obsessed with politically correct B.S.
I'm completely done punting my financial security on the Chinese playing nice and paying over the top metrics for the privilege but GLTAH.

Diversification away from reliance on the Chinese market has been down played also. Sod all mention of where Munchkins US launch is at or why US / FDA approval is taking so long. Penno said another four to twelve months in August... We're over seven month mark and an update is warranted.

[Beagle]

Diversification away from reliance on the Chinese market has been down played also. Sod all mention of where Munchkins US launch is at or why US / FDA approval is taking so long. Penno said another four to twelve months in August... We're over seven month mark and an update is warranted.

Yeap I couldn't agree more. All their new approvals have a "on a wing and a prayer" feel about them but meantime they're absolutely flat out gearing themselves to the eyeballs with debt building hundreds of millions of dollars of new stainless steel assuming that all these approvals come through. What could possibly go wrong lol
Chinese are really getting down and dirty with the Canadians now https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/can...hina-1.5067307