AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

You obfuscating the point, the correlation is not in terms of 'percentage' it is simply in terms of 'direction' (which is currently down) and $XAL is a leading indicator when there is correlation. You're right though, $XAL fell further overnight and broke down through medium term support, next supports at the Feb levels.

The reason $XAL has relevance is that large offshore holders of AIR are likely to also invest in other airlines (within the Airlines Index) and this influences decisions about portfolio weightings to the sector and in turn flows into buy/sell decisions on individual airline stocks.

Sorry to obfuscating there baabaa

Run some numbers over XAL and AIR - daily changes in each over the last 12 months

Conclusion - there is little correlation between the two (0.12) and that other factors (not how XAL is doing) mainly drive the AIR share price

Note your comment re 'direction' but i think that only applies over longer time periods

[workingdad]

I think yu should be buying heaps of AIR after that windfall

selling something for more than it's worth, avoiding getting stuck throwing in considerably more money than would otherwise have been the case is better than the alternative

[Gizzajob I can do that]

selling something for more than it's worth, avoiding getting stuck throwing in considerably more money than would otherwise have been the case is better than the alternative

Hasnt gone down well with VAH holders down 10% today

[winner69]

AIR must be glad they are getting out of Virgin

This the grand plan - raise $800m odd capital and "embark on a cost saving program that will see the airline reduce the number of its smaller capacity aircraft and “efficiencies” in maintenance and engineering roles, will see Virgin incur restructuring costs of as much as $250m along with non-cash balance sheet impairments of as much as $200m over the period to 30 June 2019."

[Snow Leopard]

For those of you confused about the recent Virgin/Air New Zealand/Nanshan proceedings I thought I would provide this clarifying graphic:



Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Xerof]

Looks like this VAH played out very well for AIR after all. Selling VAH for 33c AU and now buying 1 for 1 share at 21c, nice one and market sellers seem to be drying up a bit since announcements.

Not quite as it looks - I mentioned the relevance of 'to the extent....' sentence in the announcement.

AIR only take up the rights on the shares they have agreed to sell to Nanshan, if settlement of that sale hasn't occurred by the time the right offer closes. If they are required to do this, Nanshan have agreed to take them off AIR's hands via a sub-underwriting agreement (between AIR and NAN) in the fullness of time

[Beagle]

didn't play out for air well at all they lost 100s millions

I'd like to see your maths on that. I made a call on this a page or two back and welcome your detailed rebuttal of same. $50m write down in prior year and approx. another $50m to come, hardly the hundreds of millions you're claiming. What's clear is that if they hadn't of sold they'd be on the hook for hundreds of millions more share capital to be injected into a loss making company.
The much lesser of two evils has prevailed here.

[Master98]

American Airlines CEO claims the industry has permanently solved its biggest problem

American, Delta, and United have all recently reported record profits after decades of struggle.Last year, American Airlines saw its profits surge 50% to $6.3 billion.
According to Skift's Brian Sumers, one major airline CEO believes the industry has solved its profitability problem for good.
"My personal view is that you won’t see losses in the industry at all," American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said at the airline's annual meeting last week. "We have gotten to the point where we like other businesses will have good years and bad years, but the bad years will not be cataclysmic. They will just be less good than the good years."
Although revenue growth across the board slowed down in the first quarter of the year, the airline industry is still going strong.
Even though Parker, as noted by Sumers, has long been an optimist in the strength of the airline business, his optimism is not unwarranted.
The airline industry has traditionally been a very volatile business with thin margins and high capital requirements. That's means the room for error is very narrow. As a result, in decades past, airlines have often teetered near bankruptcy.
Over the past few years, there's been a fundamental change in the way major US airlines are run. After the latest round of bankruptcies and consolidation that saw American merge with US Airways, Delta with Northwest, and United with Continental, it seems airline management has become more focused and efficient.
Airlines have been careful to exercises discipline in expanding capacity and routes. They have also keyed in on the areas that deserve the most investment and what customers can do without.
Although cheap crude prices over the past 24 months have certainly boosted airlines' financial performance, it would be unfair to attribute it solely to lower fuel expenditures.
Last month at Delta's media day, CEO Ed Bastian noted that current oil prices are nearly identical to that in 2005. That year, both Delta and future merger partner Northwest filed for bankruptcy. In 2015, Delta reported $4.5 billion profits while returning $1.5 billion in profit-sharing to employees.

[Snow Leopard]

I'd like to see your maths on that. I made a call on this a page or two back and welcome your detailed rebuttal of same. $50m write down in prior year and approx. another $50m to come, hardly the hundreds of millions you're claiming.

At 30-Jun-2015 Air New Zealand carried there stake in VAH at NZ$360 having 'lost' NZ$124 on their cumulative investments of NZ$484 (I may have been a bit sloppy, and ignored a few million in transaction costs here ).

If we assume that the entire holding sells for AU$301.3 (ie at 33cps) which is today about NZ$317 then that is a further NZ$43 loss (and ignores any transaction costs etc).

Thus there would be total losses of NZ$167. The actual final bill will obviously be a little different.

Valuing the 'unsold 2.5%' bit at current market price gives a current total loss of NZ$175.

All original numbers sourced from Air New Zealand Financial Statements, Air New Zealand Statements and the ASX.

What's clear is that if they hadn't of sold they'd be on the hook for hundreds of millions more share capital to be injected into a loss making company.
The much lesser of two evils has prevailed here.

Taking part in the capital raising is not compulsory.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

Another good month of operating stats.