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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #9041
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    Interesting, but like I was wondering, did all the short sellers get out a couple of weeks ago after the big drop ? If they did then gme can't have much of a future.
    looks like short interest is 15% still so no

    anyone interested in charlie munger ( berkshire ) 2 hr talk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp4CvjNw-9Y
    Last edited by bull....; 26-02-2021 at 05:54 AM.
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  2. #9042
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    looks like short interest is 15% still so no

    anyone interested in charlie munger ( berkshire ) 2 hr talk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp4CvjNw-9Y

    Fools gold GME, people just chasing what's been done and dusted. Some big sharks will be sitting in the tank waiting for this moment. Funny how so many people have made money from picking the social cues. Understanding other peoples reactions is certainly the big moneymaker in this game but a 50/50 gamble is what I have noticed. IMO.

    Has the share market always been like this Bull or is it with all us new investors really messing with the system, funny how many newbie investors have no idea what they're doing or ever care to know. They just follow the crowds and it works for some.
    Certainly not a long term strategy but for now some are winning.

  3. #9043
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LEMON View Post
    Fools gold GME, people just chasing what's been done and dusted. Some big sharks will be sitting in the tank waiting for this moment. Funny how so many people have made money from picking the social cues. Understanding other peoples reactions is certainly the big moneymaker in this game but a 50/50 gamble is what I have noticed. IMO.

    Has the share market always been like this Bull or is it with all us new investors really messing with the system, funny how many newbie investors have no idea what they're doing or ever care to know. They just follow the crowds and it works for some.
    Certainly not a long term strategy but for now some are winning.
    markets have always had area's of speculative activity or gambling if you like. makes good news stories eh. anyway if your fast and nimble you can make some serious money really fast. unfortunately most are not and lose in this area of the market
    one step ahead of the herd

  4. #9044
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    in case no one picked up on it yesterday bond rates went thru the roof in NZ why cause grant robinson

    heres a news on it since its big news the govt intervening on the RBNZ course of action again , i did warn that govt can make bad decisions as a market risk in NZ

    NZ housing policy stand blows up the bond market


    The New Zealand bond market imploded on Thursday as traders raced to price in a better-than-even chance of a rate hike coming as soon as this year, to ensure the central bank meets a shock Ardern government mandate to keep housing affordable

    https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-mar...0210225-p575my

    now this could tank the NZ stock market you know why bccause we are a utility dominated market with bond rates going up you need to adjust the models , so with a higher discount rate these utility type stocks in nz are no longer as valuable as they were yesterday.
    also keep a eye on the property market rules to come over the mths all these govt interventions in the market may have implications overall for the wider economy. the reason i say wider economy is because robinson maybe forcing orr to do stuff against the grain of other central banks policy. so putting nz out of syn with unintended consequenses

    bad for utilities , property stocks as we are seeing with performance of these stocks last mth , up stocks over same period covid recovery stocks , retailers and financials for NZ

    Last edited by bull....; 26-02-2021 at 06:40 AM.
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  5. #9045
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    ...

    bad for utilities , property stocks as we are seeing with performance of these stocks last mth , up stocks over same period covid recovery stocks , retailers and financials for NZ

    Sorry, that last bit is not clear, what is your read on property stock/retailers/financials?

  6. #9046
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    looks like short interest is 15% still so no



    anyone interested in charlie munger ( berkshire ) 2 hr talk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp4CvjNw-9Y

    Hi Bull. Where do I find the info you refered to about there still being 15% short sellers still active ?

  7. #9047
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arekaywhy View Post
    Sorry, that last bit is not clear, what is your read on property stock/retailers/financials?
    rising bond yields change the valuations for stocks such as utilities and property , adjusting up the discount rate ( bond rates typically used) up affects the value of cashflows and the valuation of the stock price. might even use a duration of cashflow for a property stock in the valuation. also the govt actions around property might mean you add a bit more risk in as well when assuming cashflows from sales etc on property. thats why these stocks all selling off valuations are being adjusted and risk/ returns changed.

    retailers not effected by these things
    financials generally benefit from higher rates
    tech shares being sold of to based on the bond going up and the cashflow duration needed now to achieve profits for a lot of these companies
    metals shares going up - reflation trade
    covid recovery stocks going up as part of the back to normal trade

    so nz down 10% this year probably based mostly on this bond yields going up.

    of course things can change all the time but thats whats happening at the moment could be just a big rotation going on
    Last edited by bull....; 26-02-2021 at 08:50 AM.
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  8. #9048
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    [QUOTE=bull....;874039]

    ... so nz down 10% this year probably based mostly on this bond yields going up. ...

    Some Questions:
    What % of Kiwisaver portfolio is invested in NZ stocks?
    Has this gone up or down over last 6 months?
    Are Kiwisaver, ACC et al currently investing in NZ stocks, or selling?

    Thanks

  9. #9049
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    TV News tonight - on at the moment:

    COVID-19

    Auckland --> LEVEL 3 as of 6.00 AM Sunday 28 Feb 2021

    Rest of the Country back into LEVEL 2


    Good bye - Round the Bays .. etc

    Monday NZX open could be interesting ..

  10. #9050
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    TV News tonight - on at the moment:

    COVID-19

    Auckland --> LEVEL 3 as of 6.00 AM Sunday 28 Feb 2021

    Rest of the Country back into LEVEL 2


    Good bye - Round the Bays .. etc

    Monday NZX open could be interesting.
    Could be but in the last couple of clusters in the community, the NZX never reacted!
    In saying that people are already panicked with the current stock markets down in the red, so you're right I have a feeling there will be a flurry of panic especially with some newbies down in the red and now another community case, possible cluster.
    Last edited by LEMON; 27-02-2021 at 08:43 PM.

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