I can't argue the fact that TA looks bad, no debate about that. The question is do we look at what started the bad downtrend, the shocking first half result caused by a number of one off factors and look through that to see the sustainable dividend yield going forward. Brokers forecasting an average of 51 cps fully imputed dividends for FY20 rising to 56 cps for FY21 (56 / 0.72) = 77.78 cps gross giving a gross yield of 14.5%. $5.19 gives a gross forecast yield of 15%.
Remember this is a consumer staple. When oil went to $147 a barrel in the latter part of last decade fuel volumes declined by a "whopping" 2 %. That gives you the picture of how incredibly inelastic demand is.
That said I do believe that like me a lot of people are now buying more fuel efficient cars but on the other side of the equation we still have considerable net migrants coming here each year most of whom buy cars so this probably balances itself out. Holding for yield and the natural hedge of the dividends more than supplying the Beagle clan's fuel requirements...kind of like free fuel.
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