Using TA to time entries and exits

[percy]

Any TA views on OHE? Broke out of a serious downtrend earlier this year - stock seem to have a mind of its own with little to do with fundamentals/ prospects. Am holding.

Maybe the start of a new uptrend with the last sale at $4.25, well above the 50 day EMA $3.74,the 100 day EMA $3.61 and the 200 day EMA $3.73.

[kiora]

Any TA views on OHE? Broke out of a serious downtrend earlier this year - stock seem to have a mind of its own with little to do with fundamentals/ prospects. Am holding.

May be closer to break even on cash burn
EV/Revenue 3.43 compared to Xero 6.31
http://www.4-traders.com/ORION-HEALT...pril-22160324/
I have sold a few OHE lately to buy VGL when there was a sell down

[Hoop]

Any TA views on OHE? Broke out of a serious downtrend earlier this year - stock seem to have a mind of its own with little to do with fundamentals/ prospects. Am holding.

Good on ya Black Knat for holding and not selling now..(I hope you didn't hold from listing )...OHE is in an steep uptrend (unsustainable in the long term)...The Chart Rule:..You buy into up trends and then accumulate just above new supports. In other words you accumulate when the breather or bull market corrections end....
Logic...Lesson 1 page 1 of investing course 101..Buy into up trending stocks and sell out of down trending stocks ..Therefore the assumption is, don't buy into down trending stocks**.
**You should be a skilled investor when buying into a downtrend to play the Sucker game..

For 90% of investors FA homework and Simple charting skills is all you need to be successful...actually just applying the simple chart skills will do the job most of the time..Charting is just a visual investor group behaviour so the assumption is that the investor group has done the FA and all the other homework for you and their behaviour shown on the chart is the result..

Below is the simple chart going back to the OHE listing....The charts got you out early kept you away from the tempting sucker rallies and got you back in boots and all with lowered risk at $3.20..
Its been accumulation time since then (and still is)...




For some psychological silly reason people see simple as inferior...so below is a more complex and busier chart..pour yourself a wine loosen up the brain and take your time.

[kiora]

Good on ya Black Knat for holding and not selling now..(I hope you didn't hold from listing )...OHE is in an steep uptrend (unsustainable in the long term)...The Chart Rule:..You buy into up trends and then accumulate just above new supports. In other words you accumulate when the breather or bull market corrections end....
Logic...Lesson 1 page 1 of investing course 101..Buy into up trending stocks and sell out of down trending stocks ..Therefore the assumption is, don't buy into down trending stocks**.
**You should be a skilled investor when buying into a downtrend to play the Sucker game..

For 90% of investors FA homework and Simple charting skills is all you need to be successful...actually just applying the simple chart skills will do the job most of the time..Charting is just a visual investor group behaviour so the assumption is that the investor group has done the FA and all the other homework for you and their behaviour shown on the chart is the result..

Below is the simple chart going back to the OHE listing....The charts got you out early kept you away from the tempting sucker rallies and got you back in boots and all with lowered risk at $3.20..
Its been accumulation time since then (and still is)...




For some psychological silly reason people see simple as inferior...so below is a more complex and busier chart..pour yourself a wine loosen up the brain and take your time.

Thanks Hoop.I agree with what you're saying.The weak point may be average daily volumes in my view haven't been great so could turn quickly?Who's buying?Funds or small investors?No big volume up days that I have seen.

[Grunter]

Question - How well does TA give a forward indication as to when you should enter or exit, rather than confirm when you should have entered or exited?

[Hoop]

Question - How well does TA give a forward indication as to when you should enter or exit, rather than confirm when you should have entered or exited?

TA crystal balls are just as reliable as FA crystal balls..The difference is TA data is historical- up the moment whereas FA is historical up to the last financial news released by the company..FA makes up for this data lag by getting ongoing information and misinformation from the media which is in your face every moment of the day.

There is a myth that TA always tells you after the event..Chartists like me post charts which shows previous events if I didn't show past events there would be no chart to produce..eh. For the record TA tells the past and also up to the moment of the last trade..

For the investors trying to understand charts..think charts as an ongoing story or TV series, the viewers/readers have seen what happened, they can perceive where the story is heading and so can best guess what going to happen next..There are many stories and all stories can be categorised.. some stories are exciting with extreme oscillating plots between good and evil, always have twists and often have unsuspecting outcomes. These are your high risk, High beta (volatile), undervalued stocks e.g cyclical stocks type category..Some stories are boring because you already know the outcome (continuing trend)...e.g these are your low risk, low beta, fully priced/ top of the fair price range(overbought) stocks.. ....then you have investor perceived (forward looking) stocks, software, drug trialers, miners etc which every now and then go like a rocket into the stratosphere (and many unfortunately fall back to earth again)..which due to the sudden volatility TA is often caught out..I never know what to do with these stocks as my TA discipline is often no help to me..I'm usually very wary buying into a stampede (I like to know my probability of success and when to get out) and so I always end up with the feeling "He who hesitates is lost".

So Grunter to answer your question "... How well does TA give a forward indication as to when you should enter or exit.....Answer..It depends .

It is difficult question to answer as explained above about the stories...Also in practice, it depends on the Stock Category (e.g operates within a cyclical business sector) and its individual behaviour (the types of shareholders that actively buy/sells that stock's shares).. some stocks behave well (TA friendly), some don't ("TA Bitches".. e.g Games of Thrones ..you don't know who's going to die in the next episode and those who die sometimes don't stay dead)..

However using charts you can get to identify the "TA Bitch" stocks which are up and down and all over the place with no trend or pattern..As a rule Chartist like me tend to avoid these stocks as there are plenty of TA friendly "predictable" stocks in the world to make money from..
The Experimenting some TA thread is useful Blu3 came up with some TA friendly stocks which we had fun played around with..TGR was (is) very predictable..

Actually TGR has broken out so I've just got back in at opening at $4.14 so far down 3c..my timing sucks ..eh?

[black knat]

Thanks Hoop. Appreciate it. I went through all the growth stocks at the start of the year. Bought OHE, amougst others in a shuffel around. Was overpriced in the listing as we know. But I thought we might see a resurgence in growth stocks. Still annoyed about DIL.

[Hoop]

Thanks Hoop. Appreciate it. I went through all the growth stocks at the start of the year. Bought OHE, amougst others in a shuffel around. Was overpriced in the listing as we know. But I thought we might see a resurgence in growth stocks. Still annoyed about DIL.

Yes ...DIL stuff happens..I got annoyed with Frucor..

Mr Market seems to have changed focus from growth stocks to good dividend yielding stocks with stable income flows (defensive stocks)...I have this change of Market behaviour as one of my "ducks" signaling the topping of the Bull Market Cycle.

The HealthCare sector is classed as a non-cyclical industry, so it's a defensive investment sector

I wouldn't think anyone would class OHE as a defensive stock but it does operate within the Health Care sector...

Anyway...TA doesn't care about anything I've just written, TA just measures how well OHE is doing and at the moment OHE is running very well..A successful investing saying... "quit your loses and let you profits run"

[Hoop]

Back to AIR.
AIR Price so far today 2.29 -2.31 currently 2.29 up 1c

Baa Baa ..Looking at your monthly chart 7th May 2016 #6209 page 414 on the AIR thread...gee..AIR's fall seems to be hesitating (about a week now) around that 38.2%FIB ($2.34?) area** and is becoming spooky..also a 13 month old support there as well..Could there be a relief rally off this area? After a steep fall one would expect a dead cat bounce off some point..FIB + support point is good as any other point?.
I've been very successful with dead cat bounces by sticking to the dead cat bounce rules but there's seems to be too much risk here though... if this support fails it's another 10% down to the next supporting area which is 9 year old...

your/others thoughts on this

** 38.2% FIB (daily period)............2.36
38.2% FIB (weekly period).... 2.28
38.2% Fib (monthly period)......~2.34

[Baa_Baa]

@Hoop, agree regarding horizontal support though I have the weekly 38.2 fib at $2.34, same as monthly (week of Jun8 2012 low to recent high.). The 10MA is right on $2.34 as well. The SP is still below at $2.26 though does seem to be settling (below the fib resistance). Too risky for me to play with dead cats.