sharetrader
  1. #19631
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gregnz View Post

    Personally, I dont get much value out of negativity coming from posters who dont directly hold a stock. Plenty of them on HotCopper who dont hold A2 yet have a sell sentiment.
    Not sure how to put this in a nice way - however ... anybody who stands negative to a particular stock AND uses his (or her) brain would have sold out, wouldn't they?

    This means that you just don't want to see any negative comments on stocks you like and hold. Only holders (who typically would be positive or dumb) are allowed to comment - LOL.

    Hint - there is an easy way for you to make sure to only read positive views on any stock you desire. Just stop reading discussion forums and write yourself every day as many positive notes as you desire. Obviously - you won't learn from this exercise and you might miss out on seeing risks others are aware of - but hey, you might feel really good until you monitor next time the share price, this is.

    I certainly hope that people keep contributing their views from every angle on any stock, not just from my personal perspective. It is the diversity of thoughts which makes these forums so valuable.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 20-01-2021 at 11:16 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #19632
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Posts
    402

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not sure how to put this in a nice way - however ... anybody who stands negative to a particular stock AND uses his (or her) brain would have sold out, wouldn't they?

    This means that you just don't want to see any negative comments on stocks you like and hold. Only holders (who typically would be positive or dumb) are allowed to comment - LOL.

    Hint - there is an easy way for you to make sure to only read positive views on any stock you desire. Just stop reading discussion forums and write yourself every day as many positive notes as you desire. Obviously - you won't learn from this exercise and you might miss out on seeing risks others are aware of - but hey, you might feel really good until you monitor next time the share price, this is.

    I certainly hope that people keep contributing their views from every angle on any stock, not just from my personal perspective. It is the diversity of thoughts which makes these forums so valuable.
    I agree with what you have said, hence why I have also previously said I also appreciate a contrarian view point. I would however question the motives of non holders suggesting the stock is a definite sell at these levels. Easy to suggest people sell out at current levels when you dont hold the stock.
    I saw it happen on this forum when we were previously at $11 and several posters were encouraged to sell and did sell, only for the stock to recover above $12 several days later.

  3. #19633
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Posts
    402

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    For the record. Coutts has had unlimited access to my advice and assistance from me for many years and has both my office and home phone numbers.
    I have tried in vain over countless hundreds of hours and many years to get him to take a more professional and sensible approach to his investing (bearing in mind he is a very similar age to me and is investing joint matrimonial money). People started idolizing his go hard or go home approach. Out of frustration and a desire to help others I felt someone had to point out the risks and inappropriateness of that approach for someone of his age. I apologize if my approach offended anyone (including him) or came across as conceited or arrogant. My heart is to try and help others, (believe me, I have plenty already).

    I am not a nasty person. I am widely misunderstood on here and have had a heart to help others with widespread objective posts on stocks I don't own but the cost of that approach is too high and I am getting too old and too financially comfortable to bother anymore. I'm too well fed and fat to go skiing with Coutts anymore anyway...it is what it is.
    Beagle, I dont believe for a minute you are a nasty person. I think things got out of hand previously, and it's probably time we all moved on from that, myself included.

    Its a new year, the past is the past, lets leave it there and move into 2021 on a more positive note. Happy new year.

  4. #19634
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    79

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Rawz View Post
    Hope you change your mind later on in the year and become a guard dog again. Very helpful to us less experienced investors. Your recent posts on HLG, HGH, TRA, KFL, OCA etc have been quite insightful and again, helpful. However, I do understand if you choose not to given what Greg just posted..
    one day you might realize that relying on other peoples "insights" is not that profitable
    Last edited by xp04; 20-01-2021 at 11:29 AM.

  5. #19635
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gregnz View Post
    I agree with what you have said, hence why I have also previously said I also appreciate a contrarian view point. I would however question the motives of non holders suggesting the stock is a definite sell at these levels. Easy to suggest people sell out at current levels when you dont hold the stock.
    I saw it happen on this forum when we were previously at $11 and several posters were encouraged to sell and did sell, only for the stock to recover above $12 several days later.
    So what? Look - NOBODY is able to predict future stock prices (BTW - this wisdom comes from Ben Graham ...), this includes anybody posting on share trader: Me, you and all the other posters. All posts are implicitly subtitled (just read the share trader conditions) with DYOR.

    If anybody is buying just because somebody else said so or selling just because somebody else said so, than they frankly deserve to lose money. This forum is a platform to exchange views and ideas, not to predict future stock prices (which nobody can do).

    Could we please keep it that way?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #19636
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gregnz View Post
    Beagle, I dont believe for a minute you are a nasty person. I think things got out of hand previously, and it's probably time we all moved on from that, myself included.

    Its a new year, the past is the past, lets leave it there and move into 2021 on a more positive note. Happy new year.
    Happy to concede I probably got more than a little "dogmatic". We're all human and prone to weaknesses but I am also happy to be retiring from guard dog duties. Best wishes to all and I hope ATM recovers but for me, I won't be betting on that until the chart suggests a definite bottoming process is well underway. Lots of things should be left in the "2020 file" in my opinion, not the least of them by any means the (at times), very heated debate about repayment of the wage subsidies. Surely that topic has been thrashed about enough already !
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-01-2021 at 11:45 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #19637
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    3,837

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by xp04 View Post
    one day you might realize that relying on other peoples "insights" is not that profitable
    Who said anything about relying on?
    Helpful- yes. Insightful- yes.
    Like I said above, take what you can from positive and negative viewpoints across sharetrader then continue on doing your own research and invest from there.
    Last edited by Rawz; 20-01-2021 at 11:50 AM.

  8. #19638
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    21,480

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by xp04 View Post
    one day you might realize that relying on other peoples "insights" is not that profitable
    Must qualify as one of the most naive comments I have seen on ST!
    Last edited by Balance; 20-01-2021 at 12:51 PM.

  9. #19639
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    79

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Must qualify as one of the most naive comments I have seen on ST!
    You got me. Your comment surely much more valuable.

  10. #19640
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    OK - shall we talk for a change about ATM, shall we?

    They are still on my watchlist and I could imagine buying some at some stage again. However ... this does not look like an uptrend:

    Attachment 12241

    From a more fundamental perspective ...

    Not sure I would call the board a sea of red flags, but they certainly didn't came smelling like roses out of the Hrdlicker saga. Is there any evidence that they have learned from their mistakes and been more skillful in picking the next CEO? Do we know when he starts anyway, or is he still pondering whether he really wants to take the job?

    Looking into the history of the second down grade ... did anybody feel that they have a good command and understanding of their trade channels, or did it more feel like the downgrade crept upon them as surprise because they don't really understand their sales channels?
    In my view was the story not really a recommendation for a switched on management team knowing what they are doing ....

    ATM is still not really cheap. Sure - a forward PE of 21 combined with a forward growth CAGR of 25 sounds really sexy, but only if the analysts predictions come true. What evidence do we have that they might be right? If we learn from the past ... analysts said 12 months ago the stock is an accumulate (i.e. should grow better than average), but SP dropped in 12 months by 30 percent while NZX 50 did grow. Are we sure the same analysts are this time around righter?

    Just saying ... I don't know where the stock goes from here - and nobody else does either, but I certainly would not bet the farm on them going up from here, and hey - as the legend KW used to say: "Never drink and buy into a downtrend, you bl**dy idi*t". Do I need to confirm that she was usually right ?

    Discl: not holding;

    DYOR and do not sell or buy based just on my or anybody else's posts. They are only meant to provide some food for your own grey cells. "Do Your Own Research"
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 20-01-2021 at 02:52 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •