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  1. #411
    On the doghouse
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    Earlier this week was talking to an Auckland buyer ( going to a lot of auctions & missed out on a couple of properties due strong bidding ) who said the Auckland market has really ignited again with these low interest rates, dozens of people at open homes & property prices going up at rate of $20,000 per month. (this in the around $1M category).

    Looks like there's a revaluation of retirement sector which was so unloved in flat property market.

    Makes sense why Adrian Orr has not removed LVR's if market has taken off again.
    As an outsider (with no retirement village investments) I am going to stick my oar in for a single stroke in the expectation I will be pilloried and chased away by the believers. Since Blue Skies post, Covid-19 has come. LVRs have gone, interest rates have continued to fall and property prices have gone still higher - except in Christchurch where I live. My neighbour's son, who would be early 30s, with a wife and a young child and a good job, is looking to buy his first house in the city. He has found that a new build in Halswell (I mention that because Halswell is a relatively 'handy to the city centre' well thought of suburb - not somewhere out in the styx) significantly cheaper than buying an existing house. And buying new means your house is properly insulated and you can choose the bedroom, bathroom layout to be exactly what you want. And this new house pricing (under $500,000 for 3 bedrooms) has been achieved within all the existing planning rules, shortage of tradespeople and no mention of kit-set houses imported from China to save costs.

    I think, relative to average household salaries, Christchurch must be about the cheapest place to live in New Zealand right now. But even then it is not cheap. I realise to an Auckland domiciled worker, and retirement village investor, all this must sound fantastical. Yet even with the Adrian Orr stoked property price bonfire, even with all the price inflation levers pulled with interest rates at all time lows, you still think the average Auckland house will be worth $1m more in ten years time than it is today! And furthermore this 'wealth effect' will continue to ripple through retirement villages. I am here to tell you that the 'Christchurch effect' is coming to your town. The only way I can see your $1m house incremental price rise over the next ten years coming is through massive wage inflation (forget about small businesses grizzling about paying $20 per hour minimum wage, it will have to be $40) which means $12 lattés (starting price) for your morning fix. Before the nationwide (except Christchurch) rising of property prices in 2019 and the subsequent price stoking of 2020 I had hoped a decade of zero to no property price inflation might sort things out. But the reserve bank will not allow 7.5% wage/price inflation every year for ten years, and even Jacinda won't oversee a minimum wage of $40/hour.. So I am afraid the only option to correct things is a property crash. By that I mean a minimum 30% price collapse and probably more. I know that those of you who live in Auckland can't see it, but believe me it is coming because the population of NZ won't tolerate being priced out of a home forever. I invite you to contemplate what that might do the balance sheets of those over-leveraged property developers that call themselves 'retirement villages'.

    Ok I feel better now. back into my kennel.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 23-12-2022 at 08:10 AM. Reason: But that -> By that (wrong word correction)
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  2. #412
    Guru
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    landskrona sweden
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    even if the prices stay here for 10 years the retirement operators will make money.

    Property prices in auckland go down? well its possible but in history of records that has only happened when again? GFC?

    someone remind me that happens in the golden triangle.. when those roads are all linked in later 2021 the roads will be packed... the number of cars travelling last weekend over the huntly hump was impressive.. wait till you can connect 4 lanes to south of karapiro..

    they will leave the south island to the tourists ... live in one island and send the tourists to the south.. thats was almost what was starting to happen.

    I see property prices widening across the divide.
    Last edited by Waltzing; 15-10-2020 at 12:24 PM.

  3. #413
    Junior Member
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    Christchurch
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    Sorry for the vague question, but what retirement villages is everyone most bullish on?

  4. #414
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain View Post
    Sorry for the vague question, but what retirement villages is everyone most bullish on?
    See Oceania tread. Quite a few people think they will outperform the others and others have a different view.

    I doubt you'll find a consensus of what everyone is most bullish on as almost everyone has their own opinion on what's the best one.
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-10-2020 at 12:59 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #415
    Member
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    Aug 2020
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    Christchurch
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    Attachment 12027

    The numbers show the trend.

  6. #416
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Whanganui, New Zealand.
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    thats a really nice presentation flyinglizard
    thanks for sharing
    does it include cents per share because npat can be diluted i.e are you aware of any increase in the number of existing shares for Arvida
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  7. #417
    Member
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    Christchurch
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    thats a really nice presentation flyinglizard
    thanks for sharing
    does it include cents per share because npat can be diluted i.e are you aware of any increase in the number of existing shares for Arvida
    I do keep lots of info not for sharing. I had a look at the PE, PB, underlying PEG ratio for those four, still having the same conclusion. I prob will hold it for 3-5 years. Time will tell.

  8. #418
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Auckland
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    Default Auckland's average price now $1m+

    http://www.landlords.co.nz/article/9...+November+2020

    Real estate prices and volumes sold on fire !

    Hey Winner - Medium price is up in October by 4.8% on September. That's an annual rate of 57.6%.

    I suppose REINZ HPI figures might even paint a more robust picture when their data comes out next week ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 05-11-2020 at 08:12 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #419
    Veteran novice
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    When do we get to the stage that nobody can afford to buy at these prices -- and the long-awaited decline sets in.


  10. #420
    Quiet Observer
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    New Zealand.
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    When do we get to the stage that nobody can afford to buy at these prices -- and the long-awaited decline sets in.

    When the music stops and there aren't enough chairs (read money) to go around.
    ;-)
    Success is a journey AND a destination!

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