sharetrader

View Poll Results: Will the Bear come here ?

Voters
45. You may not vote on this poll
  • Bears can't swim too far so we are safe

    5 11.11%
  • The existing bears at Zoo's might claw us

    11 24.44%
  • Existing bears at Zoo's will escape and do some damage

    20 44.44%
  • Bears will arrive on ships and take over the country

    9 20.00%
Page 2 of 9 FirstFirst 123456 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 85
  1. #11
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post

    NZX50 ended the year up 4.6%, one of the few markets in the world to be in the green for the year.
    NZ investors in effect were handed a "get out of jail free card" in 2018...what they do with that in 2019 is up to them.
    Just as well it’s a gross index with dividends (reinvested as well) counted

    NZX50Capital up 1% last year but 8% off its August highs
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #12
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,221

    Default

    Some headlines.
    ANZ expect cash rate to fall.
    NZ's unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in the third quarter of 2018.
    Christmas retail bonanza .
    Maybe this Bear is Cookie Bear?

  3. #13
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    8,516

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Some headlines.
    ANZ expect cash rate to fall.
    NZ's unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in the third quarter of 2018.
    Christmas retail bonanza .
    Maybe this Bear is Cookie Bear?
    I Love all kinds of Bears including Cookie Bear of course.PS-Every man should own at least one Bear.

  4. #14
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Some headlines.
    ANZ expect cash rate to fall.
    NZ's unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in the third quarter of 2018.
    Christmas retail bonanza .
    Maybe this Bear is Cookie Bear?
    Slowing economic growth and a very low unemployment generally leads to a bust ....but thats a big problem for 2020

    At 3.9% the unemployment rate is well below 4.6% RB economists estimate to be consistent with low inflation

    RBNZ leading us to not so good times .....and ANZ have ulterior motives for ‘forecasting’ lower interest rates
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    474

    Default

    I agree . It is a stock pickers market.Have been hit with HGH but donot sell . Will buy at the bottom. have a lot

  6. #16
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,221

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by horus1 View Post
    I agree . It is a stock pickers market.Have been hit with HGH but donot sell . Will buy at the bottom. have a lot
    A year ago HGH's share price was a lot higher than it is today,yet today the business is in a lot better shape than it was a year ago.This will be confirmed when their half year result comes out in about 4 or 5 weeks time.

    I actually added to our holding a couple of weeks ago,which caused the sp to drop further..lol..
    .
    Last edited by percy; 02-01-2019 at 11:55 AM.

  7. #17
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    $1.30 ish is possibly somewhere close to the bottom (assuming the custard doesn't really hit the fan AKA GFC Mk2) but financials have never been known to be a defensive sector in a bear market before...so plenty of risk even at the current beaten down price and quite probably a 50/50 call whether this goes up or down in 2019 in my opinion. Disc: Holding a very modest stake for dividend yield.
    They certainly have a more consistent track record than TRA with growing eps and are on not dissimilar metrics. Looks a much better bet than TRA to my eyes.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #18
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    474

    Default

    I have been adding.

  9. #19
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,221

    Default

    Yes it will be interesting seeing whether HGH or TRA outperforms the other this year.
    At this stage I think HGH's Australian REL business has the momentum to carry the day for HGH.
    However, I and prepared to be pleasantly surprised by TRA.
    In the meantime, both are paying large fully imputed divies,which they look able to maintain much to my pleasure.
    I look forward to seeing which one increases their divie.At this stage I think it will be TRA.Their buyback will improve all their financial ratios.

  10. #20
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    So the poll is running 2:1 that the bear's coming here and will do some pretty serious clawing.
    Nobody has really opinioned on how long they expect the big bad bear to stay ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 05-01-2019 at 10:25 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •