Investing strategies and secular bear markets

[winner69]

While Hussman was on about the US markets it is relevant to the the NZ markets as well .... we prob also looking back half cycles as he put it .... see chart of NZX50

When markets rise and fall in secular ways (multi year) most stocks go up or down (to varying degrees) with the market. Hence the theme all the way through this thread and the strategy I laid out on the first post.

When markets are rising (multi year) a lot of the risk goes ... when markets are falling (multi year) it can be a very risky place. As you both point stock picking is the key and managing the risk that prevails at the time to protect capital ... and that means at times you may be out of the market altogether

[BIRMANBOY]

As I have pointed out ad nauseum...IMO charts are only usefull in trying to figure out what happened on a historical basis. There is no guarantee that we are due for a drop just because we are at a high. There would be a more than reasonable chance that it might.. but that alone shouldnt drive buying or selling. Chartists look for signals tiggered by volume, SP previous history etc. etc. I understand that I just cant buy into the "the charts dont lie" philosophy. As we have said, and you agree, stock picking is the key. The BEST time to be in the market for me is when its in the sh***er....you say its a risky place then..different strokes as they say. SInce I only buy to hold and for dividends...I am never "out of market"...its just that buying opportunities are fewer and the cash just waits for suitable situation.....must go TEL is requesting my contribution.

While Hussman was on about the US markets it is relevant to the the NZ markets as well .... we prob also looking back half cycles as he put it .... see chart of NZX50

When markets rise and fall in secular ways (multi year) most stocks go up or down (to varying degrees) with the market. Hence the theme all the way through this thread and the strategy I laid out on the first post.

When markets are rising (multi year) a lot of the risk goes ... when markets are falling (multi year) it can be a very risky place. As you both point stock picking is the key and managing the risk that prevails at the time to protect capital ... and that means at times you may be out of the market altogether