HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[couta1]

You should have phoned me mate, we could have both saved some brokerage with an off market deal. I probably bought yours off you on market lol

For mine, 7 is the new 6 considering where interest rates are at 100 year lows and then there's their current strong growth in sales (probably to be updated in the next few weeks) and the forthcoming 24 cent dividend. I'm with Balance, this could easily go over $7.50 and on the off chance they do get included in the NZX50 its then really off to the races !

The chances of it being included in the NZX50 over the next year is slim IMO, paying whatever to get a yield can lead to some serious skin burns and looking at the prices of a lot of the NZX at the moment, there is a good chance of those burns.

[sb9]

Been looking toppy since $4.50?

Next profit upgrade though should see it go above $7.50?

ASM on 9th Dec would provide more detail around trading update esp Aus side of things. If all going well could well be sp with 8 handle before year end.

[couta1]

ASM on 9th Dec would provide more detail around trading update esp Aus side of things. If all going well could well be sp with 8 handle before year end.

An 8 handle is like me wishing for a 30 handle for A2 before year end. Lol

[Balance]

The chances of it being included in the NZX50 over the next year is slim IMO, paying whatever to get a yield can lead to some serious skin burns and looking at the prices of a lot of the NZX at the moment, there is a good chance of those burns.

The big picture play on HLG to me is that interest rates are going to go lower - Adrian Orr has made it clear that house prices are not his problem, and that he will introduce LVRs to curtail demand.

Then, there's evidence of strong retail sales out there which will benefit a proven operator like HLG.

So, low interest rates + increased sales & profits = $7.50 imo.

[Balance]

An 8 handle is like me wishing for a 30 handle for A2 before year end. Lol

Let's hope that both get there?

[winner69]

Probably only a sales update in early December ...they will say ‘ It is difficult to reliably forecast the total Summer season at this stage’ and won’t mention profit.

So sales up 11% on pcp in first 8 weeks of F21 .......I reckon that will have reduced to about 5% for the 16 weeks to end November.

[couta1]

Probably only a sales update in early December ...they will say ‘ It is difficult to reliably forecast the total Summer season at this stage’ and won’t mention profit.

So sales up 11% on pcp in first 8 weeks of F21 .......I reckon that will have reduced to about 5% for the 16 weeks to end November.

There is something else they might mention in that update but won't mention it here cause Beagle might have another meltdown. Lol

[Beagle]

Probably only a sales update in early December ...they will say ‘ It is difficult to reliably forecast the total Summer season at this stage’ and won’t mention profit.

So sales up 11% on pcp in first 8 weeks of F21 .......I reckon that will have reduced to about 5% for the 16 weeks to end November.

We'll see. I reckon a test of the all time high of $6.48 is imminent and almost certain to be resoundingly broken. A lot of people have forgotten about the ~ $50m cash (83 cents cash per share) on their balance sheet and its clear with that, combined with higher sales and dramatically lower interest rates (warranting another 1.5 PE on their own compared to this time last year), the shares are worth considerably more today that when they were $6.48 about a year ago. I have learned never to sell shares in a clearly defined uptrend.

Closing price today at $6.43 is really only the equivalent of $6.19 ex divvy and compared to the metrics of WHS and BGR and taking into account the cash on HLG's balance sheet I still think HLG is on an absolute basis on its own merits compelling value at this level and even more so when compared to it peers.

[Waltzing]

rerated BBB+

[winner69]

There is something else they might mention in that update but won't mention it here cause Beagle might have another meltdown. Lol

That surely would ....but will they?