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26-08-2019, 03:15 PM
#671
Originally Posted by Lease
FBU average PE range from 14 to 20 over the past 10 years.
And lease - the shape of BLD and FBU charts over the last few years look pretty similar
Big money this part of the world rates BLD higher than FBU so where BLD goes FBU generally follows.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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26-08-2019, 03:19 PM
#672
https://www.marketscreener.com/FLETC...49/financials/
Average analyst view is for EPS of 35 cps in FY20. I don't believe the growth in eps projected for FY21 and FY2 will eventuate.
Given managements truly appalling track record I think a no growth PE of the standard 8.5 is best applied which suggests fair value (even if one assumes no further write-down's and that's a VERY big call) is 8.5 x 35 = $2.98. I think its a very stock to short with the aim to close out the position at about $3.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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26-08-2019, 03:21 PM
#673
Originally Posted by Beagle
Post #73 in February 2018, called them as being worth less than $5 when the so called experts valued them at $9.20.
post was made on 8th Feb 2018 so the market next traded around $6 , perhaps as high as 6.50 that week , so the call was right but not of the same magnitude as suggested.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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26-08-2019, 03:24 PM
#674
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
BLD has ranged from high 20s to 16 (in 2018) and is now only 10
Probably performed better than FBU but market outlook pretty dismal for both
I reckon FBU at a PE if 13 is not value
But don’t let me talk you out of thinking so.
You are certainly not.
Well, it's my opinion that you can't buy shares when everything is fine, as by then shares are very expensive. I often buy shares when SP drop and companies are viewed negatively. Many companies perform badly are mainly due to economic and industry cycle. When cycle comes to boom, they perform. Surely FBU itself made some mistakes, but I still give it a go.
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26-08-2019, 03:34 PM
#675
Originally Posted by peat
post was made on 8th Feb 2018 so the market next traded around $6 , perhaps as high as 6.50 that week , so the call was right but not of the same magnitude as suggested.
See post #34 on this thread.. Here is the original thread on FBU https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...&highlight=fbu and I apologise that I don't have the time to trawl through it at length but if you do you'll see I made repeated very negative posts about FBU in 2017 and my thoughts on the ludicrous price it was trading at way back earlier in 2017 when it was trading as high as $9.
I can't recall exactly when I first made the sub $5 call but to the best on my recollection it was a very brave call when the shares were high $7's to low to mid 8's.
It was so out of sync with where analysts saw it at the time that it was a very outrageous call to make. Bit like the one I made on CVT being worth less than $3 when it was more than double that figure. If only picking the winners was this easy !
We are nowhere near the end of the value destruction by this company in my opinion. My updated prediction is this is going under $3, remember the hound barked it first
Last edited by Beagle; 26-08-2019 at 03:37 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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26-08-2019, 03:42 PM
#676
we were all negative on FBU.
you need to get a CFD account so you can short them!
Its not immoral. Like all trading its helping the other people recognise the truth
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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26-08-2019, 03:44 PM
#677
Don't forget the share buyback will kick in on the 1st sept,I suspect the company will see value at current levels so the SP will be propped up to some degree,I can't see any major risk with buying in today.But of course you never know when management are going to find another skeleton!
Disc bought back some today that I had sold a couple of weeks ago
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26-08-2019, 03:48 PM
#678
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26-08-2019, 03:51 PM
#679
NTA is listed at $3.53 per share. Could we see it eventually go down to just 60% of that ($2.11) like another poorly performing building company MET ?
Surely it wouldn't halve again from where it is now...or could it ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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26-08-2019, 03:54 PM
#680
Originally Posted by peat
we were all negative on FBU.
you need to get a CFD account so you can short them!
Its not immoral. Like all trading its helping the other people recognise the truth
True that. There has been widespread derision towards FBU for quite some time by most people on here.
Yes....I think its time I did expand my functionality to include shorting as its often easier to pick the losers than the winners
P.S. It seems the analysts are finally starting to see through the official company speak http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5...-fonterra.html "No genuine introspection" and no accountability or traceability for Australian Capex Hmmm, some very alarming concerns spoken of there in a professional way but also in a manner that should leave no reader unaware of the seriousness of these issues.
P.P.S. Another multi year share price low today, no surprise there !
Last edited by Beagle; 26-08-2019 at 05:52 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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