BLT - Blis Technologies

[Ghost Monkey]

I've never had any trouble finding Blis products in any of the pharmacy's in my area, and they seem to sell. What I'd like to see is Blis on supermarket shelves next to that useless Strepsils brand! But I suppose in order to achieve this they'd have to show strong sales figures and/or give the supermarkets heavy discounts to promote??

[simla]

Thinking about it, there must be a reasonable chance that they will announce something interesting in the half report. The board will have had the approximate half results for a little bit now and thus a few weeks to think it over before announcing. I don't see how the result can be much to write home about (by simple maths, my post 3 Oct) and you might think that would be quite a spur to make some big decisions if it is to get a lot better over time.

Or not. But if the result is disappointing, then there surely is a chance it will be accompanied by some decisions? Or maybe it will be a great result after all anyway.

3 weeks max and we find out if the three new board members have any visible effect at this point in time.

[suse]

well they released it 20 November last year and 21 November year before. HOwever before both of those announcements there was a forecast update... nothing on that as yet so I'm guessing it is neither good or bad news

[simla]

Half year report out : https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326966

The figures:

(000s)	H1 2016	H1 2017	H1 2018	H1 2019
Trading Revenue	2708	3836	2069	2987
Total Expenses	3137	3411	3318	3352
Loss	-405	+428	-1246	-500
Net cash flow (ex finance)	-946	+538	-625	--231
Working capital	2192	2510	1145	1131

I have checked these fairly carefully, but check them yourself if relying on them.

[winner69]

Half year report out : https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326966

The figures:

(000s)	H1 2016	H1 2017	H1 2018	H1 2019
Trading Revenue	2708	3836	2069	2987
Total Expenses	3137	3411	3318	3352
Loss	-405	+428	-1246	-500
Net cash flow (ex finance)	-946	+538	-625	--231
Working capital	2192	2510	1145	1131

I have checked these fairly carefully, but check them yourself if relying on them.

Suppose need to wait another six months to see if things are really working

[simla]

The commentary:

Key Highlights for HY19 include:

• All regions and channels experiencing at least double-digit growth over the same period last year
• iNova Pharmaceuticals agreement finalised to distribute BLIS branded finished goods across selected markets in Asia Pacific and Africa (Australia, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia). Australia launch expected by the end of FY19.
• BLIS branded finished products launched on Amazon USA platform
• New launches by our European Distributor: BLIS K12TM based product: Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands, UAE, BLIS M18TM based product: Poland
• Regulatory approvals: BLIS M18TM Self affirmed GRAS in USA, BLIS K12TM based products approved in Russia and Belgium
• ThroatGuard PRO TM with BLIS K12TM is the highest selling throat lozenge YTD in New Zealand (NZ) pharmacy.
• Approval received for a Growth Grant from Callaghan Innovation, providing20% rebate on qualifying Research and Development spend.

Key Challenges for HY19 include:

• Long lead times with new customer initiatives
• Navigation of regulatory pathways
• Limited resources for targeting accelerated growth opportunities.

[Plus a fair amount of detail]

OUTLOOK

The first half year has seen good growth in revenue across all regions compared with the same period last year.
With the second half year of sales aligning with the northern hemisphere winter and new customer/ market
opportunities, including the first supply for an expanded Australia launch we reaffirm our existing market guidance.
Full financial year (FY19) guidance - revenue in excess of $7.0 m, an EBITDA in excess of $0.6 m and a small net
surplus before tax.

[simla]

Well, I cannot see any variation on past reports myself. Revenue has only recovered to the level of three years ago and expenses continue to exceed income.

I see no sign at this point that changing half the board has changed the travel plan. I notice that the tone is that it is all good news apparently, with just a tiny reference to "key challenges". Also, I notice that the revenue is forecast to increase by about $1m before the year end, and that this will create an EBITDA of $0.6m despite revenue in this half presently being less than expenses. I do not see how that is expected to occur therefore as it would appear to imply a different cost structure on that last $1m?

Sorry, but I see nothing new here and I do not see how the current cost structure is expected to produce a profit.

But, hey, that's just my personal view. I never claim to be right. Disagreement welcome as always.

[GR8DAY]

.....well it looks like (if nothing else) we've got off to a good start (first half) for the current financial year with increased revenue and a substantial reduction to the first half loss of last year. Lets hope further improvements in all areas can be made and the forecast "small profit" becomes a medium sized profit.??

[Leftfield]

Well summarised Simla, while I wish this company well, I no longer hold and merely watch from afar.

IMO BLT need to prove that changing Board and staff is more than merely shifting deck chairs on the Titanic and that their product range is still relevant.

[simla]

Something itched at me over that result, and I figured it out over the weekend. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326966

(a) H1 profit result = -500k.
(b) Forecast FY profit result break even = 0m.
(c) So forecast H2 profit result = +500k. (-500 + 500 = 0)

(d) So forecast H2 profit result is an increase on H1 profit of $1m.

(e) H1 revenue is 3m.
(f) Forecast FY revenue = 7m
(g) So forecast H2 revenue is 4m (3m + 4m = 7m) an increase on H1 revenue of $1m.

=> So the H2 forecast is for an extra $1m profit than H1 ... on an extra $1m revenue than H1?


Well, all things are possible, but that would appear to require some significant change between H1 and H2. I've checked this carefully, but I'm only human and would be pleased if someone tells me where I've made a mistake?

And if the FY result is instead another loss, as that maths might seem to imply is possible, will shareholders be happy? Well, we find out easily enough as presumably 2 out of the 3 not-new directors must offer themselves for re-election at the AGM, since the last annual report stated (p13) "One third of the Company’s Directors (rounded, if necessary, to the nearest number) are required to retire and may stand for re-election at every Annual Meeting, with those Directors to retire being those who have been in office longest since they were elected or deemed to be elected."

Shareholders are happy if they vote 'yes' or abstain on the vote, and unhappy if they vote 'no'. That's why the system exists. Directors offering themselves for re-election is the main method shareholders retain control of a company surely.

Well, I'm sure everyone is hoping that the full year result will be a good one anyway, and then obviously everyone is happy.

Just my own ponderings as always. Disagreements welcome. Interesting that nobody much has posted here since the last result and nor has there been much trading in the market. Are shareholders happy?