TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Beagle]

Patience Grasshopper. Good things take time.

[peat]

What’s happened to our $5

Seems to be getting further away

ex div today...

[nztx]

ex div today...

Time to back up the truck again soon ?

[Ferg]

If history is anything to go by, there is an 80%* chance the closing share price on 15 July will fall from the 14 July closing share price, by an amount that is less than the value of the dividend. There is also a 50%* chance the closing share price does not change from cum to ex dividend (i.e. the daily closing price change is zero). Given the current yield for this dividend is around 2% and a brokerage rate of 0.5% => free money once you factor in the tax credits.

*this is assuming one does not bet the farm on an illiquid stock and move the price excessively.

[nztx]

If history is anything to go by, there is an 80%* chance the closing share price on 15 July will fall from the 14 July closing share price, by an amount that is less than the value of the dividend. There is also a 50%* chance the closing share price does not change from cum to ex dividend (i.e. the daily closing price change is zero). Given the current yield for this dividend is around 2% and a brokerage rate of 0.5% => free money once you factor in the tax credits.

*this is assuming one does not bet the farm on an illiquid stock and move the price excessively.

I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg

Using past 4 payouts - 20 cps cash = 4.67% + Imp Credits

Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 27.78 cps = 6.49 % Gross


I'm thinking a possibility that interims may stretch to 5c or 6c upwards for 21/22 year

Working 3 x 5 c say+ 6c final forwards = 21.0 cps = 4.906% Cash yield

In that scenario, Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 29.17 cps = 6.81 % Gross


If quarterly payouts stretch to 6c + credits - Gross Annual Dividend yield (incl credits) looks
like 7.78% on current SP


Still pretty good with a good past track record, against current bank deposit rates

[Ferg]

I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg

Very true. I wasn't 100% clear in my post. The 2% refers to the gross dividend of the day, not annualised.

I have been working the maths* to find the appropriate instantaneous dividend yield vs brokerage and imputation rates to find instances of ex dividend mis-pricing. There is an 80% chance this will be one of them. I will put up a post of the formula needed to solve this, plus some stats on SP losses vs dividend yield - the two are inter-twined.

*That's why I haven't been around much lately - been crunching a lot of numbers.

[nztx]

Very true. I wasn't 100% clear in my post. The 2% refers to the gross dividend of the day, not annualised.

I have been working the maths* to find the appropriate instantaneous dividend yield vs brokerage and imputation rates to find instances of ex dividend mis-pricing. There is an 80% chance this will be one of them. I will put up a post of the formula needed to solve this, plus some stats on SP losses vs dividend yield - the two are inter-twined.

*That's why I haven't been around much lately - been crunching a lot of numbers.

TRA does appear to exhibit slip backs in it's past SP upwards moves -- these appear temporary within recent 12 months
20-30c not unusual - I wonder if not the same before resuming ?

The Jan 20 2020 div payment saw a slip of approx 20c between Ex & Pymt date of 4.0 cps + Tax credits
then there was the larger slide into the Covid-19 lockdown trough

[peat]

TRA does appear to exhibit slip backs in it's past SP upwards moves -- these appear temporary within recent 12 months
20-30c not unusual - I wonder if not the same before resuming ?

well timed post considering todays slip back.

[winner69]

Goodness gracious ….as share price heads to 4 bucks instead of 5 bucks a Director has been selling

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...649/350331.pdf

[Beagle]

Goodness gracious ….as share price heads to 4 bucks instead of 5 bucks a Director has been selling

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...649/350331.pdf

He's not a young man anymore. Probably buying his family a holiday home somewhere...hopefully not lakefront in Queenstown