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01-02-2016, 08:51 AM
#4611
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
Technically it doesn't look all that bad with modest volume through on Friday.
The daily breached the steep rising trend line, then dropped below only to recover perfectly to the 50EMA. On the weekly it closed perfectly on the 10EMA, which is a signal but not the trigger for a sell on my chart. Further price weakness below $2.90 would trigger a momentum sell on my weekly with confirmation (if procrastinating) at breach $2.86 the next lower rising trend line, but certainly a sell on both charts if $2.75 is breached being the daily 200MA and weekly 39EMA.
Who knows why it bucks around like a rodeo, but it does. So the charts are helpful for those looking to preserve capital in fall and buy weakness in a bounce. Probably a bit too active for some investors.
I believe it bucks around because it is more sensitive to the news articles (or the competition they are reporting) (the nature of the airline market)
Last time ,once people got used to the news of the competition,sentiment drifted back to the balance sheet.
IMO we have 2 things going here .1-the strong balance sheet(leading to a strong result) 2-the thought of future loss of business from more airlines entering.(gets investors skittish,trying to figure out where this leaves the company in terms of bums on seats..ie..future balance sheet..with each new arrival it kind of resets the starting point for figuring this out)
These 2 things seem to be fighting it out so we get volatility.
In terms of charts,surly some shares must behave better then others(I believe hoop has mentioned that this was one of the more difficult)..and I suppose the rodeo example would imply that you agree Ba Ba?
Last edited by skid; 01-02-2016 at 08:55 AM.
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01-02-2016, 09:18 AM
#4612
Originally Posted by skid
[snip] ..In terms of charts,surly some shares must behave better then others(I believe hoop has mentioned that this was one of the more difficult)..and I suppose the rodeo example would imply that you agree Ba Ba?
I think it depends on the degree of precision one attempts to achieve, the more precise one try to be, the harder it is. That's why for solid companies - earning profits - paying dividends - and in strong trends, the weekly chart for me is just fine. It leaves a bit of profit on the table during exits and buys in above the lows. It is a basic momentum trade, so again ... strong trends are necessary. AIR works just fine on the weekly chart because of it's strong trends. On the daily chart, it's not so easy. Key is that there is not a single chart technique or trading strategy that works for all shares, one has to try and figure out what works for them for each of their holdings.
jmo, I hope it helps.
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01-02-2016, 12:53 PM
#4613
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
I think it depends on the degree of precision one attempts to achieve, the more precise one try to be, the harder it is. That's why for solid companies - earning profits - paying dividends - and in strong trends, the weekly chart for me is just fine. It leaves a bit of profit on the table during exits and buys in above the lows. It is a basic momentum trade, so again ... strong trends are necessary. AIR works just fine on the weekly chart because of it's strong trends. On the daily chart, it's not so easy. Key is that there is not a single chart technique or trading strategy that works for all shares, one has to try and figure out what works for them for each of their holdings.
jmo, I hope it helps.
Yes Skid AIR's chart is more difficult to handle....So chartists have to apply more skills...such as using a longer period (weekly) as BaaBaa does, which smooths out some of the trading noise..Tweaking the default settings on the TA indicators...Using Logarithmic charts is preferable for stocks being volatile or have very large long term price oscillations..etc.
Breaking back below $3 is not the end of the TA world but it presents a worry, as many throwbacks (second chance buy ins) that fall back do test their sell signal levels often gives the TAists negative scenario thoughts such as bull traps etc...
Why is AIR shareprice more volatile than other NZX50 shares?...Volatility is all due to the type of shareholders that reside in stocks...Steep trending cyclicals attract more shareholders who are more transient in nature..always been the case and always will be
BaaBaa...tweak your weekly EMA10 to EMA14 and have a look..
Disc: still in ..just
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01-02-2016, 01:46 PM
#4614
@Hoop thanks I forgot to say my weekly has the 10 and 14 EMA ... Depending on trajectory one is the signal the other is the trigger. I probably shouldn't be over simplifying as there are trendlines and various indicators in play as well.
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01-02-2016, 01:48 PM
#4615
The irrational behaviour models of trading and long-term investing
Originally Posted by Roger
...
Me, I have yet to see one plausible explanation of why analysts are forecasting similar eps earnings for QAN in FY17 and FY18 to Fy16 and yet analysts are calling the peak for AIR in Fy16 with really substantial falls in those latter years ?
If Airlines are indeed cyclical then they're all cyclical right and Qan can't be immune.
This dichotomy in the way Australian analysts are valuing QAN and the way N.Z. analysts are valuing AIR is very difficult to understand.
How does one explain this, two direct competitors operating in close geographical proximity, both commodity based economies, both subject to ostensibly similar macro economic factors, tourism, oil prices, competition, global economic factors e.t.c.
...
Qantas thread is here, seems no one on ST is interested in them.
The answer to the above is fairly straight forward, you should be able to work it for yourself.
Originally Posted by Roger
...
Be greedy when others are fearful Warren Buffet
He also does not buy into airlines.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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01-02-2016, 04:18 PM
#4616
There go a few big crossing I've been waiting for. Feeling more comfortable we've found support at 295. Not out of the woods yet though.
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01-02-2016, 05:43 PM
#4617
Feels Kind of like we're back where we started
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01-02-2016, 05:44 PM
#4618
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
Qantas thread is here, seems no one on ST is interested in them.
The answer to the above is fairly straight forward, you should be able to work it for yourself. He also does not buy into airlines.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
If it's so simple then it shouldn't be any trouble to explain your point of view.
Last edited by Beagle; 01-02-2016 at 06:06 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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01-02-2016, 05:46 PM
#4619
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
Qantas thread is here, seems no one on ST is interested in them.
The answer to the above is fairly straight forward, you should be able to work it for yourself.
He also does not buy into airlines.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
And 2015 was not a great year for ole Warren
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02-02-2016, 09:22 AM
#4620
Airline index outperforming market overnight - up around 2% right now. Drop in oil and airline profit (LOTS of profit) reporting the catalyst it would appear.
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