Tegel IPO

[Speculator]

The quality of some of their freshly branded frozen patties and the like are pretty shoddy. I wouldn't put too much hope into this segment of product growing too much. Me and other students bought them a few times and then gave up because there's only so much frozen rubbery chicken you can put yourself though.

[dreamcatcher]

Small mention of Ingham NZ in their August report. Worth a read

http://investors.inghams.com.au/Inve.../?page=results

[winner69]

Wow -Tegel might grow earnings F18 - couldn't really say they'll make less could they

CEO says -
So looking at FY18, based on the current market conditions, holding domestic market share, with on- going domestic consumption growth of 4-5% and continuing exports, we expect to deliver an increase in underlying EBITDA from the level at FY17.

[Balance]

Wow -Tegel might grow earnings F18 - couldn't really say they'll make less could they

CEO says -
So looking at FY18, based on the current market conditions, holding domestic market share, with on- going domestic consumption growth of 4-5% and continuing exports, we expect to deliver an increase in underlying EBITDA from the level at FY17.

Wonder if they have learnt anything from the debacle of the listing?

Under promise and over deliver!

[hardt]

Wow -Tegel might grow earnings F18 - couldn't really say they'll make less could they

CEO says -
So looking at FY18, based on the current market conditions, holding domestic market share, with on- going domestic consumption growth of 4-5% and continuing exports, we expect to deliver an increase in underlying EBITDA from the level at FY17.

Same thing was said in their FY17 AR.

Minor increase in EBITDA, debt dropping from $250m > $120m this will allow a fair reduction in repayments flowing through to the bottom line.

Solid 5-10% NPAT growth.

[Arbroath]

Same thing was said in their FY17 AR.

Minor increase in EBITDA, debt dropping from $250m > $120m this will allow a fair reduction in repayments flowing through to the bottom line.

Solid 5-10% NPAT growth.

Hardt - theyve already had that debt benefit as the $130m was repaid from IPO funds in May 2016 so won't be much flowing through from lower interest payments in FY18. I do think though that they want to establish an under-promise, over-deliver set-up for H1'18 as mgmt have been burned by the aggressive IPO forecasts.

[hardt]

Hardt - theyve already had that debt benefit as the $130m was repaid from IPO funds in May 2016 so won't be much flowing through from lower interest payments in FY18. I do think though that they want to establish an under-promise, over-deliver set-up for H1'18 as mgmt have been burned by the aggressive IPO forecasts.

It was paid through April - October, so we can expect some of the repayments between then to have affected the bottom line.

Totally agree this is more or less a conservative forecast.

[hardt]

Attachment 9155

Thought it would look better than it did, correlation is there, not sure if it matters or not.

Here is the data used for the chart, monthly OHLC.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	Poultry $
30/04/2016	1.69	1.71	1.59	1.68	15.01
31/05/2016	1.68	1.70	1.56	1.65	15.18
30/06/2016	1.64	1.68	1.61	1.65	14.35
31/07/2016	1.65	1.80	1.63	1.76	14.44
31/08/2016	1.76	1.76	1.50	1.51	14.41
30/09/2016	1.52	1.60	1.44	1.51	13.52
31/10/2016	1.51	1.52	1.44	1.47	13.42
30/11/2016	1.48	1.59	1.29	1.45	13.75
31/12/2016	1.45	1.46	1.30	1.34	12.81
31/01/2017	1.35	1.37	1.26	1.28	14.51
28/02/2017	1.28	1.30	1.12	1.13	13.95
31/03/2017	1.13	1.23	1.12	1.19	14.49
30/04/2017	1.19	1.19	1.05	1.06	14.61
31/05/2017	1.06	1.26	1.06	1.26	14.16
30/06/2017	1.26	1.35	1.23	1.25	14.35
31/07/2017	1.25	1.34	1.21	1.24	14.81
31/08/2017	1.24	1.25	1.22	1.23

[Dust]

Thought it would look better than it did, correlation is there, not sure if it matters or not.

That looks good, definitely a correlation there with a few month of price reaction delays. If the uptrend continues, FY18 forecast should be decent

[winner69]

That looks good, definitely a correlation there with a few month of price reaction delays. If the uptrend continues, FY18 forecast should be decent

but the red line has headed down since july

good to see what you want to see eh?