SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[Bikeguy]

You dont need to drop your entry point. Your cash now should go to where the best value is right now. Forget averaging down. Your old money invested cannot be saved. Your new money now ready to be invested can go anywhere. It’s free to the best home you can find.

It’s a valid point you are making,

[Marilyn Munroe]

OIO is not an issue imo.

Look at Westland and Silver Fern - NZ desperately needs foreign investors with capital, expertise and access to global markets.

Agree with you that CR is how the game will play out.

And haven't the market done a wonderful job delivering a trashed SP as well as panic-stricken bond holders?

I agree with Balance, tho OIO won't be an issue if the alternative is workers being sent down the road. Besides if the OIO digs in it will receive informal guidance from the Rice Christian and Landed Gentry factions of the National Party.

I am less sure that Bright will be the Wong Fei-hung riding to the rescue of the oppressed shareholders of Sysnlait. You may have heard that there is a bit of a pinch economically in China at the moment. The pinch is being felt most sharply by municipalities like Shanghai which is the ultimate owner of Bright Dairy.

While a deeply discounted capital raise is attractive it would require a lot of Kiwi Pesos. The Bright Dairy apparatchik who wanders down the corridor to the Shanghai Bean Counter Commissar must be worried a request for precious foreign currency will earn him a transfer to ideology and party discipline duties in Xinjiang.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Bikeguy]

I agree with Balance, tho OIO won't be an issue if the alternative is workers being sent down the road. Besides if the OIO digs in it will receive informal guidance from the Rice Christian and Landed Gentry factions of the National Party.

I am less sure that Bright will be the Wong Fei-hung riding to the rescue of the oppressed shareholders of Sysnlait. You may have heard that there is a bit of a pinch economically in China at the moment. The pinch is being felt most sharply by municipalities like Shanghai which is the ultimate owner of Bright Dairy.

While a deeply discounted capital raise is attractive it would require a lot of Kiwi Pesos. The Bright Dairy apparatchik who wanders down the corridor to the Shanghai Bean Counter Commissar must be worried a request for precious foreign currency will earn him a transfer to ideology and party discipline duties in Xinjiang.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Appreciate your thoughts on SML Marilyn, can I ask you your opinion on what you think the outcome will be? Cheers

[blackcap]

It’s a valid point you are making,

One of the most valid points made. Many in the investing world however do not heed/think along these lines. In business its the same...

[Marilyn Munroe]

Appreciate your thoughts on SML Marilyn, can I ask you your opinion on what you think the outcome will be? Cheers

Who knows. I get the impression the situation is being allowed to drift

You question gives me an opportunity to rant about the poor level of governance in the agricultural processing sector;

Waitaki NZ Refigeration

Fortex

AFFCO

PPCS(1), now Silver Fern Farms

Fonyerra

Westland Dairy

and now Synlait.

PGG Wrightson is another tale of woe in an agricultural related category

Are there any I have missed?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

(1) How Keith Cooper escaped unscathed from the Richmond litigation debacle is a mystery to me.

[whatsup]

Who knows. I get the impression the situation is being allowed to drift

You question gives me an opportunity to rant about the poor level of governance in the agricultural processing sector;

Waitaki NZ Refigeration

Fortex

AFFCO

PPCS(1), now Silver Fern Farms

Fonyerra

Westland Dairy

and now Synlait.

PGG Wrightson is another tale of woe in an agricultural related category

Are there any I have missed?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

(1) How Keith Cooper escaped unscathed from the Richmond litigation debacle is a mystery to me.

Dont forgetr the Norgate debarcal Williams & Kettles, something to do with the Cushings family.

[kiora]

Dont forgetr the Norgate debarcal Williams & Kettles, something to do with the Cushings family.

Norgate & Kiwi Coop
"Powdergate suspects in court
Seven dairy company employees stood before a court recently in a case dubbed New Zealand’s ‘Powdergate’. Described as a ‘power struggle involving a bully boy vendetta’ the case concerns a multi-million dollar conspiracy to illegally export milk powder disguised as animal feed.

New Zealand’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) heard how former Kiwi boss Craig Norgate allowed Paul Marra and Malcolm McCowan to draft their own terms of reference for an inquiry into the illegal exporting of milk powder.

Fonterra’s regional managing director and former New Zealand Dairy Board executive Grant Waterhouse, was called as a witness to give evidence in the case,"

https://www.dairyindustries.com/news...ects-in-court/

& Norgate then

https://management.co.nz/archive/dai...-craig-norgate

Go figure ?

[Balance]

Who knows. I get the impression the situation is being allowed to drift

The banks will not be allowing the situation to drift so there's plenty happening behind the scenes.

John Penno leaving/quitting with immediate effect is an example of what's happening behind the scene.

All comes down to what the two big shareholders want to do - the possibility does exist that they allow SML to go under and have a big bun fight over who can buy the assets they want cheaper.

Problem for them with that scenario is that they then lose control of the process and another player could end up with control of the assets.

[Bikeguy]

The banks will not be allowing the situation to drift so there's plenty happening behind the scenes.

John Penno leaving/quitting with immediate effect is an example of what's happening behind the scene.

All comes down to what the two big shareholders want to do - the possibility does exist that they allow SML to go under and have a big bun fight over who can buy the assets they want cheaper.

Problem for them with that scenario is that they then lose control of the process and another player could end up with control of the assets.

Between them they own 59% Bright 39. A2 20
Does Bright just want 51% of SML?CR would be the cheapest way to get that?
Or do they want it all, either with or without A2…
I’m picking they will go with the CR because at 51% or more they have it anyway…

[Balance]

Between them they own 59% Bright 39. A2 20
Does Bright just want 51% of SML?CR would be the cheapest way to get that?
Or do they want it all, either with or without A2…
I’m picking they will go with the CR because at 51% or more they have it anyway…

SML needs at least $200m imo to stabilise its financial position so a CR is almost inevitable (next option being a takeover which is problematic with the differing objectives of the 2 big shareholders).

So a 4 for 1 share issue (underwritten by Bright & ATM) at 25c could be what's on the card. Remember Sky TV's 2.83 for 1 rights issue at 12c?