RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[winner69]

vaygor, when your table says Jan-14 $6.63 when in 2014 does that suggest the price could be $6.63? Assuming that Jan-14 is xls for 2014

I hope $12 plus sometime in 3 to 4 years - esp if it overshoots historical trends, My immediate interest is how it gets there and whether my returns are from $5 or $6 or $7 only time will tell

And this is all dependent on ever increasing property prices eh, earnings did go backwards one year didn't they

[Vaygor1]

vaygor, when your table says Jan-14 $6.63 when in 2014 does that suggest the price could be $6.63? Assuming that Jan-14 is xls for 2014 ….

Yes it does.
It also says Share Price in Jan-2015 three months from now (assuming a rational market) should be $7.69 but if EPS growth remains at the historical average of 22.6% for the year (instead of the projected 16%), this would be $8.13
I'd have to check back on the earnings history to see if they went backwards in one year. Will take a look.

[winner69]

Yes it does.
It also says Share Price in Jan-2015 three months from now (assuming a rational market) should be $8.13
I'd have to check back on the earnings history to see if they went backwards in one year. Will take a look.

the year you topped up I think when you were down the gurgler but held strong

[Vaygor1]

the year you topped up I think when you were down the gurgler but held strong

Hi. Sorry, just amended my last post, the Jan-2015 figure, which I read off the wrong chart version. Corrected now.

My drawn-out holding period at a large paper loss was from Jan-2008 till April-2010 as per my super disclosure post...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post482295

Have not purchased anymore RYM since Mar-2013 as I have enough. Have never sold any to-date either.

Note in the link (posted in late May this year) that I consider at the time that $8.40 was still a good price. Not so sure now, but how much is a share worth with a reliable and ongoing expanding rate-of-return of 15%-25% per annum? If everyone knew 100% that such a growth rate was going to be sustained in the medium to long term (and I think it will) then I am sure the SP would be quite a lot higher than it is at the minute.

[winner69]

Hi. Sorry, just amended my last post, the Jan-2015 figure, which I read off the wrong chart version. Corrected now.

My drawn-out holding period at a large paper loss was from Jan-2008 till April-2010 as per my super disclosure post...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post482295

Have not purchased anymore RYM since Mar-2013 as I have enough. Have never sold any to-date either.

Note in the link (posted in late May this year) that I consider at the time that $8.40 was still a good price. Not so sure now, but how much is a share worth with a reliable and ongoing expanding rate-of-return of 15%-25% per annum? If everyone knew 100% that such a growth rate was going to be sustained in the medium to long term (and I think it will) then I am sure the SP would be quite a lot higher than it is at the minute.

2009 was the year profits went backwards

[Vaygor1]

2009 was the year profits went backwards

Underlying profits or IFRS (GAAP?) profits? Underlying profit looks like it stagnated (even went up slightly) from 2008 to 2009.

UPDATE:
From 2007 to 2008 RYM took a huge leap in underlying profits. Maybe RYM got ahead of itself in that year as I think SUM might have done last year.

One thing i do know, is when any share performs poorly against expectations, then the market hammers the price through the floor. Great time to buy if the fundamentals remain intact.

[winner69]

Underlying profits or IFRS (GAAP?) profits? Underlying profit looks like it stagnated (even went up slightly) from 2008 to 2009.

Reported profits, not the underlying profit

[Vaygor1]

So I did a bit of work. Tossed various scenarios here and there and decided to throw it away as a Log/Log seemed worth a try.

It occurred to me that as both the EPS and Shareprice numbers (ie both x and y axis) increased from 2002 to 2014 that variance increased too. This was evident in the bunching up of the data points of both the EPS and the share price in the earlier years, towards the left and the bottom respectively on the linear chart.

I further realised that in terms of percentage difference between any data point and its corresponding value on a a variety of lines-of-best-fit on a linear plot that the 2013 data-point was not as far off the mark as either 2006 or 2009. So on this basis if one opted to treat 2013 as an out-lie which seems a reasonable thing to do then 2006 and 2009 should be treated as out-lies too.

Anyway, with no trendline, here is the result. I have labelled each data point with its corresponding year:

Attachment 6345

Now I have never taught stats, but I did get 97.5% in it at 2nd Pro Engineering school at Canturbury Uni (never was able to figure out at the time where I lost that elusive 2.5% - sorry, can't find a smily face for a nerd) and it was all too long ago with little application since to re-educate myself on it. But throwing some trendlines in there, using excel, bears some interesting results. Any advise before I post some trendlines? On excel, a linear trendline is not a straight line (but nearly) whereby a power trendline does in fact produce a straight line on a log/log scale and seems to be the best one to use as RYM's figures generally speaking have been increasing at a fairly constant rate to-date.

[Snow Leopard]

Anyway, with no trendline, here is the result. I have labelled each data point with its corresponding year:

Attachment 6345

A quick check shows that while the '13 & '14 EPS are IFRS based (which includes the revaluation of investment properties) '04 & '05 EPS are GAAP based (which did not).
I am not sure when the changeover occurred.

But you need to be consistent with your inputs.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger