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18-06-2017, 08:21 PM
#4981
Originally Posted by Hoop
Beware of the part-argument....Lets add another part....If FA were the way to go then the market would collapse.....
What do I mean?....Simple logic...If all traders were of one make-up and only used one discipline whether it is FA, TA, Contrarian, Momentum, tea leaves, whatever they would all want to buy in at the same time creating buying chaos and very sharp movement up into overpriced territory (supply/demand).. ditto in reverse...Volatility to the max, or if no-one cared, boredom to the max..
Now lets be sensible guys this never happens in a free market apart from the rare panics...We are dealing with a marketplace..In the short and medium term FA can be worthless as sentiment rules..In the long term FA is very valuable as it can either confirm earlier negative sentiment was correct (company going to the dogs) or confirm earlier negative sentiment was misplaced (e.g AIR last year)...Share investors may be buying shares in a company but they have to realise they are also buying into a marketplace...The market place dictates and it can ruin you..e.g A FA disciple buying DIL at a high price deciding to ride out a bad bear cycle knowing that eventually the price will reflect the favourable forward FA, only to see it bought out and de-listed from the market...ditto investing in Frucor as along term "superannution" buy and hold forever, the market delisted it and you the shareholder had no say in the matter so much for that B&H strategy....The marketplace is made up of all sorts of people with differing ideals,attitudes, personal strengths and weaknesses,temperament, and beliefs, some have moral attitudes and will never buy SKC or RAK some will never buy cyclical stocks e.g AIR.....TA discipline ain't tea leaves or the holy grail of knowing everything.. it just measures (and uses tools to analyse) the sentiment of all the people within the marketplace at specific times from the past up to the last trading moment of present day..Like FA TA does not know the future as it is impossible to collect and analyse data that doesn't yet exist..but we all love to predict the future using our "expert" knowledge and it doesn't matter if we are FAers, TAers or believers of groundhogs, we all love to share our opinions, debate about it and shake around our crystal balls..It's us that makes up the marketplace (and these forums)...May it continue for centuries to come..
So today, what does all this mean .....TA says market sentiment towards SUM sucks at the moment.....that is all......
Great post Hoop thanks
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19-06-2017, 08:00 AM
#4982
Yes ,a great few posts of late Hoop - Thank you
Would add to your reputation if I could, but seems have to spread it around a bit more first!
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19-06-2017, 09:02 AM
#4983
Last week we had index rebalancing and we saw consistent downward pressure on SUM as index tracking funds reduced their holding during the week. Following closely and looking for the right time to double down.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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19-06-2017, 09:15 AM
#4984
Originally Posted by Beagle
Last week we had index rebalancing and we saw consistent downward pressure on SUM as index tracking funds reduced their holding during the week. Following closely and looking for the right time to double down.
Why don't you just triple down mate, so we can both have equal sized holdings.
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19-06-2017, 01:21 PM
#4985
Roger you are now Beagle... how a few weeks change so much. yet so little.
On another note... I love these prices SUM one or two coming my way.
Still see it dropping a little further, yet how little is always hard to guess.
It's like the seasons, the leaves are falling, share prices are mostly going down... she'll be right mates
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19-06-2017, 05:11 PM
#4986
Originally Posted by Food4Thought
Roger you are now Beagle... how a few weeks change so much. yet so little.
On another note... I love these prices SUM one or two coming my way.
Still see it dropping a little further, yet how little is always hard to guess.
It's like the seasons, the leaves are falling, share prices are mostly going down... she'll be right mates
No need to guess, just wait for the tide to turn. There'll be sum good buying there in due course.
NB. I promise not to use that corny "sum" again!
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19-06-2017, 08:24 PM
#4987
Originally Posted by Food4Thought
Roger you are now Beagle... how a few weeks change so much. yet so little.
On another note... I love these prices SUM one or two coming my way.
Still see it dropping a little further, yet how little is always hard to guess.
It's like the seasons, the leaves are falling, share prices are mostly going down... she'll be right mates
Nice to know if there is a reason... or sentiment rules the day..So Roger is now Beagle...right that fills in the picture...
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19-06-2017, 10:48 PM
#4988
Originally Posted by Hoop
we all love to share our opinions, debate about it and shake around our crystal balls..It's us that makes up the marketplace (and these forums)...May it continue for centuries to come..
So today, what does all this mean .....TA says market sentiment towards SUM sucks at the moment.....that is all......
I'm not so sure. In terms of PRZ its looking pretty positive.
This is why I hate the TA vs FA argument as its just too binary and doesnt allow for the various methods under each broad category.
Last edited by peat; 19-06-2017 at 10:51 PM.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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20-06-2017, 12:10 PM
#4989
I'm in , another pattern on a smaller scale has tipped me.
Attachment 8924
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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20-06-2017, 01:38 PM
#4990
Care to explain that chart peat, its meaningless to me except the two wings i can see, lift off?
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