IFT - Infratil

[mfd]

See page 29 of the Contact Energy presentation from Monday:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/CEN/416270/400271.pdf

Looking at 2 North Island sites (Glenbrook and Stratford) with a FID in the next 6 months. Glenbrook preferred site but Stratford already consented.

Meridian are building one too, slightly ahead of contact

https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/news-and-events/meridian-to-build-ruakaka-battery-energy-storage-system

[maclir]

There's a Longroad investor presentation this coming week https://infratil.com/news/longroad-energy-investor-day/ - materials include some thinking on US renewables valuations. Softening us up for a jump in Longroad valuation and the share price?

[Toddy]

Hopefully we can see some presentation videos online next week.

It's all very interesting and gives great insights into what is happening along way from home.

[Ggcc]

There's a Longroad investor presentation this coming week https://infratil.com/news/longroad-energy-investor-day/ - materials include some thinking on US renewables valuations. Softening us up for a jump in Longroad valuation and the share price?
Longterm this share is an absolute gem to have in your portfolio. I’m picking it will double SP within 4 years.

[Azz]

Longterm this share is an absolute gem to have in your portfolio. I’m picking it will double SP within 4 years.

It's the only NZ stock I'm thinking of adding (long-term hold).

[Swala]

Over the past two years IFT has outperformed the NZ50 by a touch under 50%. My favourite NZ stock by a country mile.

[Valuegrowth]

If I am correct, IFT’s ROE is not that high and 5-year average is around 11.4% and Its net debt to equity ratio is also considered high around (41.5). To pick a company for the long run at least there should be ROE of around 15(five-year average). ROE Over 20 is much better. If I decide to select a stock for the long run, I will go with high ROE companies with a strong balance sheet. I will also make sure not to pay very high PE to pick stocks while paying attention to the debt level.

https://www.investorsfriend.com/return-on-equity/

“If we are not expecting the P/E to increase, then the only way a stock’s price can grow is if the earning per share grow. Therefore it is clear that a great stock to invest in should be one that is expected to have a rapid growth in earnings per share.

Clearly then, it is important to be able to predict which companies will show high growth in earnings per share.

All else being equal,companies with a high return on equity will show the highest growth in earnings per share.”

Appreciate your great analysis in this regard.

[kiora]

There's a Longroad investor presentation this coming week https://infratil.com/news/longroad-energy-investor-day/ - materials include some thinking on US renewables valuations. Softening us up for a jump in Longroad valuation and the share price?

"US$8 billion capex plan to deliver on Longroad’s development
plan through 2027 and generating US$600+ million of EBITDA from 10 GW"
"Development plan through 2027 will require ~US$8 billion of incremental capex
investment
• Expect 85-90%, or US$7.0 billion, of capex to be funded via non-recourse project
financings (i.e., tax equity and debt financings);
̶ ~US$4 billion of the project financings expected to be sourced from tax
equity banks that Longroad has traditionally used (e.g., US Bank and PNC);
tax equity market remains constrained which creates competitive advantage
for experienced developers like Longroad
̶ ~US$3 billion would be sourced by traditional bank debt (e.g., Keybank, CIT,
HSBC, Morgan Stanley, MUFG, CIBC)
• Remaining US$1.0 billion would be funded via additional Longroad equity,
additional holding company debt or cash distributions from Opco"

So 10% equity(or debt) for $8b development through to 2027
A lot of tax breaks


$800 m equity generating $600m EBITDA in 2027

[Azz]

I want in, but NZ market looking verrrry shaky...

[maclir]

I want in, but NZ market looking verrrry shaky...

In general?

[Waiuta]

I want in, but NZ market looking verrrry shaky...
I used to worry about when or not to enter but with IFT I purchased in 2016 (3600), 2018 (3600), 2019 (965), 2020 (765) and with a couple of reinvestments (68 & 86) my average price is $3.45. My Sharesight records show I have received 6.31% divies and 23.56% capital gain for an overall return of 26.42%pa. It's making the decision is the hard bit but in my case I am a very happy investor in IFT.

[Waiuta]

I used to worry about when or not to enter but with IFT I purchased in 2016 (3600), 2018 (3600), 2019 (965), 2020 (765) and with a couple of reinvestments (68 & 86) my average price is $3.45. My Sharesight records show I have received 6.31% divies and 23.56% capital gain for an overall return of 26.42%pa. It's making the decision is the hard bit but in my case I am a very happy investor in IFT.
Sorry, I forgot to add I sold 584 in June this year @ $9.68 so the % quoted above are net.

[Azz]

I used to worry about when or not to enter but with IFT I purchased in 2016 (3600), 2018 (3600), 2019 (965), 2020 (765) and with a couple of reinvestments (68 & 86) my average price is $3.45. My Sharesight records show I have received 6.31% divies and 23.56% capital gain for an overall return of 26.42%pa. It's making the decision is the hard bit but in my case I am a very happy investor in IFT.

Nicely done! :-)

[Azz]

In general?

Yes, in general.

[kiora]

"Harbour Navigator: The ‘Longroad’ to solar success"
https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/longroad/

[warthog]

"Harbour Navigator: The ‘Longroad’ to solar success"
https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/longroad/

Riding the US$400bn climate scam.

[Toddy]

I like the line 'these investments may seem large relative to investments in New Zealand'.

Go Infratil!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Riding the US$400bn climate scam.

What is the scam exactly you are referring to?

[Curly]

What is the scam exactly you are referring to?
Climate colding 😂

[mwri]

Live in denial and miss out on big opportunities. It’s up to you

[mike2020]

You can take advantage of the opportunities without bias.

[Ggcc]

You can take advantage of the opportunities without bias.
That is the best way to see it.

[Toddy]

It's good to see ONE NZ cashing in on their Warriors sponsorship too.

The advertising based on the outstanding success on and off field is all very positive.

[Ggcc]

It's good to see ONE NZ cashing in on their Warriors sponsorship too.

The advertising based on the outstanding success on and off field is all very positive.
I do wonder if they will ever keep the ONE name. As in everyone I talk to say they should have changed it to something else. People still refer it to Vodafone to alleviate confusion. Maybe they should have considered Tahi.

[Bjauck]

I do wonder if they will ever keep the ONE name. As in everyone I talk to say they should have changed it to something else. People still refer it to Vodafone to alleviate confusion. Maybe they should have considered Tahi. "One" you can use either as Wun for "1" or as Oh-né for "Earth, sand, mud or land"

[Azz]

Maybe they should have considered Tahi.

Not the best choice; I think tahi might mean excrement in Malay, which close to 300 million people speak across Southeast Asia (and I'm sure a few in NZ do too).

[Ggcc]

Not the best choice; I think tahi might mean excrement in Malay, which close to 300 million people speak across Southeast Asia (and I'm sure a few in NZ do too).

Fair enough haha. Maybe something else then. I just thought maybe make it kiwi with adding a Maori word that people may not get offended by. Everyone seems offended nowadays.

[Azz]

Fair enough haha. Maybe something else then. I just thought maybe make it kiwi with adding a Maori word that people may not get offended by. Everyone seems offended nowadays.

I can certainly research this, but if it's easy to answer, why was it changed from "Vodafone"? Was it a commercial legal reason? Or a vanity change? Or something else?

[Bjauck]

Fair enough haha. Maybe something else then. I just thought maybe make it kiwi with adding a Maori word that people may not get offended by. Everyone seems offended nowadays. One is already a common Mãori word. Maybe happenstance or deliberate, I don't know. So you can choose to call it the English ordinal or the Mãori land. Anything but Vodafone as that perhaps would have continued to incur a royalty for its use in NZ.

[Azz]

I can certainly research this, but if it's easy to answer, why was it changed from "Vodafone"? Was it a commercial legal reason? Or a vanity change? Or something else?

Okay they were paying millions of dollars in ongoing "branding fees". But I think "One" is a terrible rebrand, but who knows......

When I hear it, I always think it's that TV channel that I don't watch. Or it feels like the start of something: "One... pear" "One... pissed-off customer" etc

[Azz]

Okay they were paying millions of dollars in ongoing "branding fees". But I think "One" is a terrible rebrand, but who knows......

When I hear it, I always think it's that TV channel that I don't watch. Or it feels like the start of something: "One... pear" "One... pissed-off customer" etc

Because of this, I'm gonna knock 50c off my Infratil buy-in price, which was a well thought out, charted, and researched $9.99.

[kiora]

Because of this, I'm gonna knock 50c off my Infratil buy-in price, which was a well thought out, charted, and researched $9.99.

Haha, how really well thought out?
Expecting a real share market crash then?
Good luck.

By 2026 Longroad alone is expecting to earn as much EBITDA as IFT is earning now.

[Azz]

Haha, how really well thought out?
Expecting a real share market crash then?
Good luck.

By 2026 Longroad alone is expecting to earn as much EBITDA as IFT is earning now.

My research pinpointed the perfect buy-in price via aligning one Infratil share with a large Big Mac combo from three years back.

[Azz]

Expecting a real share market crash then?
Good luck.

I'm biding my time. Things are just a bit weird at the moment for the NZ share market. I may pay more in future than now, but so be it.

Here is my list of NZ stocks on my buy list:

1) Infratil

[Swala]

I'm biding my time. Things are just a bit weird at the moment for the NZ share market. I may pay more in future than now, but so be it.

Here is my list of NZ stocks on my buy list:

1) Infratil

Infratil is already my biggest shareholding and my buy list is still the same as yours!

[kiora]

My research pinpointed the perfect buy-in price via aligning one Infratil share with a large Big Mac combo from three years back.

Say that again?

What is the relationship between a Big Mac combo from three years back & IFT?

I would suggest IFT management are more of a profit center than a Big Mac combo from three years back :)

[alokdhir]

Say that again?

What is the relationship between a Big Mac combo from three years back & IFT?

I would suggest IFT management are more of a profit center than a Big Mac combo from three years back :)

I was wondering mate so thought I shud ask u ....

U have two stock portfolio with CURRENT ratio being 80% IFT and 20% FPH as per your last disclosure .

Did u start with these ratios OR over the period of time it became like this keeping in view IFT doing much better then FPH at present ...may had been different when FPH was flying high above $ 36 ?

PS : Aim is to know how to manage such simple portfolios ...keep rebalancing at regular intervals or let them run as they go ?

[winner69]

My research pinpointed the perfect buy-in price via aligning one Infratil share with a large Big Mac combo from three years back.

Quick sums ….price of Big Mac in NZ seems to have outperformed IFT shares over last couple of years

[Ggcc]

Quick sums ….price of Big Mac in NZ seems to have outperformed IFT shares over last couple of years
And will only continue to increase faster than IFT over the coming years if Inflation can't get under control

[kiora]

I was wondering mate so thought I shud ask u ....

U have two stock portfolio with CURRENT ratio being 80% IFT and 20% FPH as per your last disclosure .

Did u start with these ratios OR over the period of time it became like this keeping in view IFT doing much better then FPH at present ...may had been different when FPH was flying high above $ 36 ?

PS : Aim is to know how to manage such simple portfolios ...keep rebalancing at regular intervals or let them run as they go ?

I always have taken up allotment of most new listings since the 80's up until around 5 years ago.
Lately I haven't added any new listings as I couldn't get enough to be worthwhile or appeared sub par investments/businesses cf IFT or FPH
I added more IFT as I went & maintained initial FPH(did sell some FPH,15%, 5? years ago)
& sold the other laggards when needed some funds for other investments or when market seemed to be turning & needing to pay off some OD

From memory sold
FBU many moons ago
WHS @ $7.50 cashed for projects
Skl @ $2.50 after buying in cash issue @ $0.50
AIA $6.20 after reading book on pandemics
RBD @ $2.50? after buying in when RBJ disclosed his holding
ARV $1.30 on way up when market turning pay off some OD
Turners @ $3.50 when market turning pay off some OD
SKC @ $3.50 when market turning pay off some OD
MHI,NPH,THL, etc pay off some OD

Now comfortable letting them run as I go with no rebalancing.

[kiora]

MAC versus IFT
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/MCD#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MS widGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjozLjk3NzAx MTQ5NDI1Mjg3MzQsImZsaXBwZWQiOmZhbHNlLCJ2b2x1bWVVbm RlcmxheSI6dHJ1ZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJjcm9zc2hhaXIiOnRy dWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImxpbmUiLCJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2 UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSwiYWdncmVnYXRpb25UeXBl Ijoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiOiJwZXJjZW50IiwicGFuZW xzIjp7ImNoYXJ0Ijp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjEsImRpc3BsYXkiOiJN Q0QiLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsImluZGV4IjowLCJ5QX hpcyI6eyJuYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6bnVsbH0s InlheGlzTEhTIjpbXSwieWF4aXNSSFMiOlsiY2hhcnQiLCLigI x2b2wgdW5kcuKAjCJdfX0sInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGll ciI6NSwiYmFzZSI6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZX Jpb2QiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9fSwibGluZVdpZHRo IjoyLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VuZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIj p0cnVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dy b3VkIjp0cnVlLCJldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3Jwb3JhdGUiOnsiZG l2cyI6dHJ1ZSwic3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlfSwic2lnRGV2Ijp7fX0s ImN1c3RvbVJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJzeW1ib2xzIjpbeyJzeW1ib2 wiOiJNQ0QiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiTUNE IiwicXVvdGVUeXBlIjoiRVFVSVRZIiwiZXhjaGFuZ2VUaW1lWm 9uZSI6IkFtZXJpY2EvTmV3X1lvcmsifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHki OjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayIsInRpbWVVbml0IjpudWxsLC JzZXRTcGFuIjp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjUsImJhc2UiOiJ5ZWFy IiwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOnsicGVyaW9kIjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbC I6IndlZWsifX19LHsic3ltYm9sIjoiSUZULk5aIiwic3ltYm9s T2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5bWJvbCI6IklGVC5OWiJ9LCJwZXJpb2RpY2 l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIiwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51 bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI6NSwiYmFzZSI6In llYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiOjEsImludGVy dmFsIjoid2VlayJ9fSwiaWQiOiJJRlQuTloiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZX JzIjp7ImNvbG9yIjoiIzcyZDNmZiIsIndpZHRoIjo0LCJpc0Nv bXBhcmlzb24iOnRydWUsInNoYXJlWUF4aXMiOnRydWUsImNoYX J0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic3ltYm9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5bWJv bCI6IklGVC5OWiJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiZmlsbEdhcH MiOmZhbHNlLCJhY3Rpb24iOiJhZGQtc2VyaWVzIiwic3ltYm9s IjoiSUZULk5aIiwiZ2FwRGlzcGxheVN0eWxlIjoidHJhbnNwYX JlbnQiLCJuYW1lIjoiSUZULk5aIiwib3ZlckNoYXJ0Ijp0cnVl LCJ1c2VDaGFydExlZ2VuZCI6dHJ1ZSwiaGVpZ2h0UGVyY2VudG FnZSI6MC43LCJvcGFjaXR5IjoxLCJoaWdobGlnaHRhYmxlIjp0 cnVlLCJ0eXBlIjoibGluZSIsInN0eWxlIjoic3R4X2xpbmVfY2 hhcnQiLCJoaWdobGlnaHQiOmZhbHNlfX1dLCJ3aWR0aCI6Miwi c3R1ZGllcyI6eyLigIx2b2wgdW5kcuKAjCI6eyJ0eXBlIjoidm 9sIHVuZHIiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiaWQiOiLigIx2b2wgdW5kcuKA jCIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIx2b2wgdW5kcuKAjCJ9LCJvdXRwdX RzIjp7IlVwIFZvbHVtZSI6IiMwMGIwNjEiLCJEb3duIFZvbHVt ZSI6IiNmZjMzM2EifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZX RlcnMiOnsid2lkdGhGYWN0b3IiOjAuNDUsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6 ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFuZWxOYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX19fQ--

Returns?
I know what which one I'd rather invest in.

[huxley]

Looks like the $10 IFT deal is back for a limited time.

[Azz]

Looks like the $10 IFT deal is back for a limited time.

I might downgrade to aligning to the medium combo.

[BlackPeter]

Looks like the $10 IFT deal is back for a limited time.

How limited? - and where do you think it will go afterwards :) ?

[huxley]

How limited? - and where do you think it will go afterwards :) ?

It’ll either get cheaper or more expensive! And maybe like Countdown, it’ll be this price for “weeks and weeks” :)

[BlackPeter]

It’ll either get cheaper or more expensive! And maybe like Countdown, it’ll be this price for “weeks and weeks” :)

I agree - and I am glad you put it this way :) ;

[kiora]

I was wondering mate so thought I shud ask u ....

U have two stock portfolio with CURRENT ratio being 80% IFT and 20% FPH as per your last disclosure .

Did u start with these ratios OR over the period of time it became like this keeping in view IFT doing much better then FPH at present ...may had been different when FPH was flying high above $ 36 ?

PS : Aim is to know how to manage such simple portfolios ...keep rebalancing at regular intervals or let them run as they go ?

Did you know when people talk about "portfolio risk" its not just the risk of going lower its also the risk of going higher

From Google
"Is it a good idea to rebalance your portfolio?
https://www.google.com/search?q=portfolio+rebalancing&rlz=1C1CHZN_enNZ1004NZ1005&oq=portfolio+rebala&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCQgAEAAYQxiKBTIJCAAQABhDGIoFMg YIARBFGDkyBwgCEAAYgAQyBwgDEAAYgAQyBwgEEAAYgAQyBwgF EAAYgAQyBwgGEAAYgAQyBwgHEAAYgAQyBwgIEAAYgAQyBwgJEA AYgATSAQg5OTIxajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
It may reduce the volatility of your investment portfolio and keeps the asset allocation in sync with your risk tolerance. If you don't rebalance, a diversified portfolio will maintain a higher return on investment with only slightly greater volatility"

Time is your friend if the portfolio is not rebalanced

From Forbes
"Investment risk tends to increase as the return on investment increases"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markkantrowitz/2021/11/14/pros-and-cons-of-rebalancing-stock-market-investments/?sh=4c05491b3f36

[kiora]

Work in progress
Console Connect transaction
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/414461
https://gurinenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023-0908-Media-Release-Gurin-Energy-awarded-conditional-license-to-import-low-carbon-elec.pdf
https://kaodata.com/news/infratil-and-l-g-capital-increase-investment-in-kao-data-to-accelerate-high-performance-platform-expansion
Longroad Energy Investor Day
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417947
In September One NZ – now 99% owned by Infratil, following our June purchase of the stake previously owned by Brookfield Asset Management - launched the first of its new ‘resilient’ retail stores. The new Napier store has an uninterruptable power supply battery backup and its own small cell (think mini cell tower), meaning should grid power fail, as happened in February’s Cyclone Gabrielle, the store can continue to operate – offering customers a way to reach loved ones, and charge their phones, tablets, and other connected tech. The need to focus on resilience and connectivity, as well as having the local store, was highlighted by locals during One NZ's cyclone response and support in the region.

During the quarter our Australian radiology business, Qscan, opened two new clinics - Qscan Newstead in Brisbane, and Qscan Maroochydore on the Sunshine Coast.
RetireAustralia received approval to develop a retirement village at Parkside Yeronga which will bring much needed age-friendly living options to the south of Brisbane. Plans for the new village include 159 independent living apartments, a boutique 10-suite care hub, and indoor and outdoor communal spaces

[maclir]

Work in progress
Console Connect transaction
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/414461
https://gurinenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023-0908-Media-Release-Gurin-Energy-awarded-conditional-license-to-import-low-carbon-elec.pdf
https://kaodata.com/news/infratil-and-l-g-capital-increase-investment-in-kao-data-to-accelerate-high-performance-platform-expansion
Longroad Energy Investor Day
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417947
In September One NZ – now 99% owned by Infratil, following our June purchase of the stake previously owned by Brookfield Asset Management - launched the first of its new ‘resilient’ retail stores. The new Napier store has an uninterruptable power supply battery backup and its own small cell (think mini cell tower), meaning should grid power fail, as happened in February’s Cyclone Gabrielle, the store can continue to operate – offering customers a way to reach loved ones, and charge their phones, tablets, and other connected tech. The need to focus on resilience and connectivity, as well as having the local store, was highlighted by locals during One NZ's cyclone response and support in the region.

During the quarter our Australian radiology business, Qscan, opened two new clinics - Qscan Newstead in Brisbane, and Qscan Maroochydore on the Sunshine Coast.
RetireAustralia received approval to develop a retirement village at Parkside Yeronga which will bring much needed age-friendly living options to the south of Brisbane. Plans for the new village include 159 independent living apartments, a boutique 10-suite care hub, and indoor and outdoor communal spaces

For the nerds among us this article about Kao, with the appt of the new chair last month, is very interesting. Not least because of the name. The UK's approach to tertiary/tech company synergy has been an oft profitable one.

https://kaodata.com/news/kao-data-appoints-david-bloom-as-new-chairman

[Gerald]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/419591

Hmm, risk free rises from 3.65 to 3.75%. I guess we are using the Swiss risk free rate for that one 🤔

[Muse]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/419591

Hmm, risk free rises from 3.65 to 3.75%. I guess we are using the Swiss risk free rate for that one 樂

lol yes I wondered the same thing. Okay, CDC is an Australian business, so use the AU Gov 10 year bond as RFR proxy...and that is still 4.56%. How they get away with using 3.75% RFR is beyond me.

[Snoopy]

lol yes I wondered the same thing. Okay, CDC is an Australian business, so use the AU Gov 10 year bond as RFR proxy...and that is still 4.56%. How they get away with using 3.75% RFR is beyond me.


They didn't get away with it. You and Gerald called them out!

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Possibly using methodology / rates NZ Treasury use or some other sillybway

[kiora]

Rather pricey?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gip-considers-stake-sale-15-122742238.html

[Toddy]

Rather pricey?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gip-considers-stake-sale-15-122742238.html

If that's the current market then Ift is well placed to ride the wave.

[Ggcc]

If that's the current market then Ift is well placed to ride the wave.
Right now it's the hot topic with endless funding. A great market to be in when the biggest advocate is the government.

[Bjauck]

In Milford’s latest missive to KiwiSaver members, Sam Trethewey writes glowingly about LongRoad Energy and how they benefit from the clean energy credits in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. He recently visited LongRoad in the Arizona Desert. Infratil is one of Milford’s preferred stocks.

[kiora]

Re Milford
https://milfordasset.com/insights/infratils-renewable-energy-gold-rush

[winner69]

WCC floating idea of selling their Wellington airport holding

Would IFT take it off their hands (cheap) or just live with another partner?

[Ggcc]

WCC floating idea of selling their Wellington airport holding

Would IFT take it off their hands (cheap) or just live with another partner?
I would definitely think IFT would want first dibs. Maybe they might want it all and make an offer for it.

[Toddy]

Wellington has voted Green. So it's oniy a matter of time before they don't want an Airport on their books.

This will play nicely into IFTs hands.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Very nice of the council to consider selling its airport stake at the almost worst possible time (for them) in terms of a likely valuation achieved.

[kiora]

Re Milford
https://milfordasset.com/insights/infratils-renewable-energy-gold-rush

Further confirmation
"To date, LoadRoad has developed 3.8 GW of solar and wind projects. Management has set an annual development target of 1.5 GW, and in total intends to deliver 10 GW by 2027. If achieved, it will see LongRoad’s earnings triple and, due to the IRA, will require limited new equity funding"

"The Repsol renewable projects up for sale have a total capacity of about 600 megawatts and the transaction values them around 700 million euros ($747.18 million), sources said"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zara-founder-ortega-raises-bet-083951766.html

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wellington city council today voted to proceed with investigating a plan to sell its stake in Wellington airport.

I have a feeling IFT will get a good deal here, and whatever long term plans they have for it, whether retaining it as a long term asset or selling it, that will be a lot easier to do with 100% ownership.

[Ggcc]

Wellington city council today voted to proceed with investigating a plan to sell its stake in Wellington airport.

I have a feeling IFT will get a good deal here, and whatever long term plans they have for it, whether retaining it as a long term asset or selling it, that will be a lot easier to do with 100% ownership.
They are business savy, but they also want the best for everyone. They may pay a premium to get those shares to have more control. Who
knows, airport may drip feed it to an investor.

PS shortly we may get to see a new high. I am sure people are regretting not holding this share over their dropping portfolios.

[Toddy]

The sale logic makes total sense for WCC. Sell the airport holding and reinvest in a less risky Perpetual Investment Fund.

[Bjauck]

Are airports a good investment these days? Sure, the NZG needs immigrants in the absence of policies that boost labour productivity. However future pandemic travel restrictions and flight carbon and climate taxes are a risk.

[Toddy]

Are airports a good investment these days? Sure, the NZG needs immigrants in the absence of policies that boost labour productivity. However future pandemic travel restrictions and flight carbon and climate taxes are a risk.

Im sure that Ift would package it up, float it and dump it. It's the perfect exit strategy.

[GTM 3442]

I'm not so sure that Infratil would want 100% ownership of WIAL. After all, Infratil do have some history in the second-string-airport ecosysyem. . .

So whilst WIAL is something of a cash cow, I think a WCC exit might be followed by an Infratil exit. WCC can test the water as far as pricing goes, and that'll inform any Infratil decision to stay or go.

[maclir]

S&P predicted divvies for WIAL

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WIA/419073/404021.pdf

"Dividends, after adjustments for subvention payments, of NZ$60million in fiscal 2024, NZ$30 million in fiscal 2025 and NZ$43million in fiscal 2026."

[Toddy]

The interim results must be due any day now. I'm looking forward to an update.

[777]

16th

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/upcoming_results

[huxley]

The interim results must be due any day now. I'm looking forward to an update.


I think I read that the results are going to be released this Thursday, but I can’t remember where I read that now! (Maybe on a Chris Lee newsletter??).

[huxley]

That was it :)

[Ggcc]

Would you look at that. Another all time high

[Toddy]

Profit forecast has moved higher. I hope the we can hold onto yesterday's sp gains.

Looking good.

[Ggcc]

Profit forecast has moved higher. I hope the we can hold onto yesterday's sp gains.

Looking good.
Looks good when their flagship Investment mentions

CDC is experiencing an unprecedented surge in demand for cloud and generative AI workloads, from both new and existing customers. This demand has seen CDC embark on an accelerated development plan, bringing forward 223MW of development across Canberra, Sydney, Melbourne, and Auckland. CDC is very well positioned to capture this growing demand with large campus facilities ideally suited for the rollout of multi-megawatt deployments.”




And another ATH Jeepers. It won’t be the last. Really positive result

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Best managed company on the NZX. The only reason i tolerate the outrageous management fees.

[Ronnie]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421750

“In terms of our returns to shareholders, we will pay a partially imputed interim dividend of 7.00 cents per share, a 3.7% increase from the prior year. Over the first half of FY2024, Infratil has delivered a total shareholder return of 14.1%, while the NZX50 was down 6.6% over the period. For the 12 months to 30 September 2023, Infratil’s total shareholder return was 22.3%.

[huxley]

Share price down 4% :D

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The CFO of Infratil uses Sharesies.

It is a very inexpensive platform to use I have to admit.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422129

[Cabinet]

And Sharesies now offering DRIP on Infratil.

[JSwan]

The CFO of Infratil uses Sharesies.

It is a very inexpensive platform to use I have to admit.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422129


Damn, too much money going to Morrison & co haha

[Jim]

As long as they are performing they deserve the mega fee

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423714

DRP strike price at $9.9557

[winner69]

CDC worth more than 3 months ago

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/424251/410410.pdf

[huxley]

CDC worth more than 3 months ago

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/424251/410410.pdf


purchased for what, $400m AUD in ~2016? Incredible returns for shareholders.

[kiora]

"One Giant Leap Taken For One NZ Coverage With SpaceX 'Cell Tower In Sky’ Satellite Launch"
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2401/S00008/one-giant-leap-taken-for-one-nz-coverage-with-spacex-cell-tower-in-sky-satellite-launch.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+5+Ja nuary+2024

[Toddy]

At the moment it feels like a boring share to own.

Small daily volumes.

[Paint it Black]

At the moment it feels like a boring share to own.

Small daily volumes.

The players are on holiday I'd say.

[RTM]

At the moment it feels like a boring share to own.

Small daily volumes.

Quite happy with boring.

[Ggcc]

Quite happy with boring.
Boring is best. By the end of this year I feel it will be around $11.50-12

[kiora]

" more and more sovereign wealth funds see infrastructure as a major growth area in their asset allocation,""
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-energy-transition-helps-explain-blackrocks-125-billion-bet-on-infrastructure-fink-170046374.html

[Swala]

" more and more sovereign wealth funds see infrastructure as a major growth area in their asset allocation,""
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-energy-transition-helps-explain-blackrocks-125-billion-bet-on-infrastructure-fink-170046374.html

.....starting to realise what Infratil has known for years!

[thedrunkfish]

What a fantastic investment CDC Data centers has been for them.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424962

https://www.reseller.co.nz/article/709052/cdc-data-centres-accelerates-building-programme-meet-ai-demand/ (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424962)

[Ggcc]

What a fantastic investment CDC Data centers has been for them.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424962

https://www.reseller.co.nz/article/709052/cdc-data-centres-accelerates-building-programme-meet-ai-demand/ (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424962)

I remember black peter indicating that data centres demand was dropping world wide, yet as I have always mentioned they could pick and choose who they wanted and that demand was ample. Ongoing great news for Infratil shareholders

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I remember black peter indicating that data centres demand was dropping world wide, yet as I have always mentioned they could pick and choose who they wanted and that demand was ample. Ongoing great news for Infratil shareholders

Data centre demand is dropping worldwide? That is crazy talk. In the middle of a sustained boom, currently being accelerated even more by crushing demand for AI capacity.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425299

Bit of buying on market, increasing holdings.

[Ggcc]

Data centre demand is dropping worldwide? That is crazy talk. In the middle of a sustained boom, currently being accelerated even more by crushing demand for AI capacity.
I am glad that we had the likes of Blackpeter on this forum, but on Infratil, his jaded judgement has got in the way of purchasing a share everyone should consider in their portfolio. I am happy to have him tell me how we are all wrong, but history shows he has been wrong about Infratil from about $7-8 per share. I didn't go back any further on this forum.

It kind of reminds me how I felt FPH was overvalued at $10. I was wrong and mentioned that on the FPH forum page some time back.

[mike2020]

Some people have said 11 dollars by the end of this year. I have much greater expectations.

[warthog]

Newfield clearly has expectations as well.

[huxley]

New all time high at $10.73 ($8,664m).

[mike2020]

$10.75 was the high

[alokdhir]

$10.75 was the high


Now $ 10.79 :t_up:

[Toddy]

Not so boring now....

[mike2020]

Not so boring now....

Yes, at this rate I would expect $15 by the end of Feb. Possibly a trifle optimistic?

What is happening here?

[Toddy]

Share price all over the place.

[mike2020]

Share price all over the place.

Yeah but all those places are up.

[Toddy]

Yeah but all those places are up.

Maybe the sellers are watching the NFL

[huxley]

Wonder if this will impact long road at all

https://acore.org/resources/the-risk-profile-of-renewable-energy-tax-equity-investments/

[kiora]

Wonder if this will impact long road at all

https://acore.org/resources/the-risk-profile-of-renewable-energy-tax-equity-investments/

Unlikely?

https://acore.org/resources/the-risk-profile-of-renewable-energy-tax-equity-investments/

"The Risk Profile of Renewable Energy Tax Equity Investments"
"Conclusion

The federal renewable energy tax credit program, with its proven track record, continues to be a driving force behind the ongoing energy transition. Through tax equity investments, banks will continue to play a pivotal role in monetizing these tax credits and creating significant liquidity in the market.

Renewable energy tax equity structures have protective features that shield investors from project risks and protect their returns even in downside cases. Tax equity investments are not speculative in nature and have a different risk profile than traditional equity investments, with their value driven primarily by tax benefits. The tax equity investor’s position is senior to the project sponsor’s junior equity, providing a priority in earning returns and avoiding structural subordination to long-term debt. These investments are underwritten to be robust and are structured to perform well under various stress scenarios. As recognized by the OCC, tax equity has more loan-like characteristics than true equity investments.

Moreover, the historical performance of exited renewable tax equity investments, as well as projections for current investments, demonstrate overwhelmingly positive yields. The risks from recapture, foreclosure, and bankruptcy have had no or significantly limited impacts on investors’ overall portfolios. Absent new policy impediments, the low-risk profile of renewable tax equity will continue to attract considerable capital from banking investors seeking stable returns."

[huxley]

“Senior Wall Street bankers are warning that a plan by US regulators to rewrite the rules of tax-equity investing will deliver a major blow to a market dominated by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp.At issue is the perceived risk of tax-equity investments, which are a form of financing in which banks provide capital to green projects in exchange for tax credits. It’s a market in which JPMorgan and BofA have been estimated to do more than 50% of the roughly $20 billion worth of annual transactions. ”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/wall-street-says-basel-3-endgame-puts-green-investments-at-risk?cmpid=BBD012924_MONEYSTUFF&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=240129&utm_campaign=moneystuff

[huxley]

If the risk weighting were to change for the banks who fund these projects then it may make it more difficult to finance Longroads projects?

[mike2020]

Back to boring and $10?

[Swala]

I think it's just a reflection of the general market malaise at present.


Back to boring and $10?

[3141592]

Been a while since i've posted on this thread. Had some time to digest the investor day packs and watch the presentation. So a few random thoughts.
IMHO IFT remains the best placed risk adjusted public investment on NZX by a long shot. So many tail winds are in evidence, but particularly the AI growth into datacentre deployment, into data infrastructure growth and finally into green renewable energy demand. IFT sits across so many strong thematics / tail winds / growth areas. Beautifully positioned / poised!

Rate of increase in datacentre deployment in both CDC and KAO (not material in KAO but maturing nicely and is only a couple of years off of being very meaningful) is astonishing.
In active construction they appear to have more than 140% of existing capacity - that's not a pipeline, that's in active construction. The pipeline of owned sites plus the active construction is 350% increase against the existing deployed operational asset.

At the very end of the presentation, to help finance this the CEO of CDC noted that specialist banks in the US that support datacentres have never analysed a higher average credit rating across their client base and seen a longer forward sales contract profile than CDC and from a banking perspective it put them in the lowest risk data centre globally (not the lowest risk category, but the lowest risk of any data centre. So that's a pretty strong sound bite particularly when taken with their impressive growth - low risk high growth - hmmm - how many businesses have that?... That’s why IFT have noted that CDC is a core and growth asset simultaneously - it’s just incredibly capitally intense as it ramps to a gwh.

The renewables highlights for me - the development cover that Long road released for their 1.5gwh per annum target, they appear to be very confident that they had the depth of pipeline to ensure they would BOTH hit the rate of increase and also ensure that the final projects chosen would meet or exceed their target return profile. The depth of pipeline had grown so much the execution risk looks to be a lot lower than it appeared say as a BHAG style target two years ago… now they horizon for $600m EBITDA doesn’t look that far off and one can easily see it go to $1bn EBITDA within this decade… Gurin the Asian renewable business also looked like it's on a roll largely driven by the Singaporean opportunities that have ramped up it's near term pipeline to be 5 times higher than expected at this stage of its maturity. IFT mentioned its progress with some pride - so we should see that business blossom within the next 3 years.

The delta between their internal valuations, the independent valuation and the further negative delta to market cap appears wider than ever - and the new CFO is working with analysts to increase disclosures to help analysts improve their valuation capability and ergo close the gap to a perceived higher intrinsic value. This is always inherent within the long term manager controlled infrastructure fund but the discount should remain consistent and the growth of asset value remain discounted but inline with real commercial evaluations. I think that the core market cap has not risen as quickly as their internal assessments, so there’s a greater buy case now than ever…

They noted that organic opportunities appeared to be significant, easy to originate, in known fields and have higher returns in general than / vs inorganic and so we'll wait to see how IFT structures the financing of those growth plans - as their growth assets have huge potential and their core assets can’t grow sufficiently to fund all growth optionality. So we'll see how that plays out. Will they raise and rip into the opportunities or manage to milk the gearing levels given the quality of underlying earnings. One things for sure there could not be a better manager to support them through their capital allocation and capital structure programmes than MCO.

MCO discussed their strongly aligned position with IFT given level of equity ownership beyond their fee structure. They were intent on providing higher returns than their impressive track record as a badge of pride. Reiterated that their 10 and 30 year return profiles were basically in the top 10% of any fund in this space and only beaten by closed end time frame funds who presumably had one or two lottery outcomes - not quite the same as their record given the length of tenure...

Other items of note in no particualar order
The airport would be back to pre covid cash generating levels in 2024
One NZ delivered or exceeded IFT base case in recent buy out and was tracking positively, I still don't see the fit of holding a mature domestic telco - but they've made an astonishing return by buying an underperforming asset and releasing the business potential through divestment of towers, simplification and improved management in the core business. I'd prefer to see it rolled off - but if can be a massive cash cow both retained or sold down - and Jason Paris is such a strong leader hard not to enjoy seeing it steadily mature. I always enjoy the interplay across JP and GB the respective CEOs of One NZ and CDC and One tries to keep up with that datacentre business growth and shine bright in a galaxy of dazzling stars..

Concerns. Not many...
Growth pains, how to finance the optionality!
Eternally waiting for Galileo to make some real traction
Holding too much value in a large domestic telco - with substantial gearing - could some black swan event upset that apple cart and dent the trajectory...
Not much else.
Still believe if the NZ analysts community were asked their 5 year share price targets rather than their dumb broker fuelled 1 year spot price targets they'd universally say IFT and we'd see so much greater recognition.... hey ho, let's hope the new CFO can speed up the depth of disclosure and the NZ analysts can ask their clients to tuck away their portoflio's for a decade in this asset (yea right! goodbye broker fees).

[Swala]

Excellent post, thank you.

[Ggcc]

Been a while since i've posted on this thread. Had some time to digest the investor day packs and watch the presentation. So a few random thoughts.
IMHO IFT remains the best placed risk adjusted public investment on NZX by a long shot. So many tail winds are in evidence, but particularly the AI growth into datacentre deployment, into data infrastructure growth and finally into green renewable energy demand. IFT sits across so many strong thematics / tail winds / growth areas. Beautifully positioned / poised!

Rate of increase in datacentre deployment in both CDC and KAO (not material in KAO but maturing nicely and is only a couple of years off of being very meaningful) is astonishing.
In active construction they appear to have more than 140% of existing capacity - that's not a pipeline, that's in active construction. The pipeline of owned sites plus the active construction is 350% increase against the existing deployed operational asset.

At the very end of the presentation, to help finance this the CEO of CDC noted that specialist banks in the US that support datacentres have never analysed a higher average credit rating across their client base and seen a longer forward sales contract profile than CDC and from a banking perspective it put them in the lowest risk data centre globally (not the lowest risk category, but the lowest risk of any data centre. So that's a pretty strong sound bite particularly when taken with their impressive growth - low risk high growth - hmmm - how many businesses have that?... That’s why IFT have noted that CDC is a core and growth asset simultaneously - it’s just incredibly capitally intense as it ramps to a gwh.

The renewables highlights for me - the development cover that Long road released for their 1.5gwh per annum target, they appear to be very confident that they had the depth of pipeline to ensure they would BOTH hit the rate of increase and also ensure that the final projects chosen would meet or exceed their target return profile. The depth of pipeline had grown so much the execution risk looks to be a lot lower than it appeared say as a BHAG style target two years ago… now they horizon for $600m EBITDA doesn’t look that far off and one can easily see it go to $1bn EBITDA within this decade… Gurin the Asian renewable business also looked like it's on a roll largely driven by the Singaporean opportunities that have ramped up it's near term pipeline to be 5 times higher than expected at this stage of its maturity. IFT mentioned its progress with some pride - so we should see that business blossom within the next 3 years.

The delta between their internal valuations, the independent valuation and the further negative delta to market cap appears wider than ever - and the new CFO is working with analysts to increase disclosures to help analysts improve their valuation capability and ergo close the gap to a perceived higher intrinsic value. This is always inherent within the long term manager controlled infrastructure fund but the discount should remain consistent and the growth of asset value remain discounted but inline with real commercial evaluations. I think that the core market cap has not risen as quickly as their internal assessments, so there’s a greater buy case now than ever…

They noted that organic opportunities appeared to be significant, easy to originate, in known fields and have higher returns in general than / vs inorganic and so we'll wait to see how IFT structures the financing of those growth plans - as their growth assets have huge potential and their core assets can’t grow sufficiently to fund all growth optionality. So we'll see how that plays out. Will they raise and rip into the opportunities or manage to milk the gearing levels given the quality of underlying earnings. One things for sure there could not be a better manager to support them through their capital allocation and capital structure programmes than MCO.

MCO discussed their strongly aligned position with IFT given level of equity ownership beyond their fee structure. They were intent on providing higher returns than their impressive track record as a badge of pride. Reiterated that their 10 and 30 year return profiles were basically in the top 10% of any fund in this space and only beaten by closed end time frame funds who presumably had one or two lottery outcomes - not quite the same as their record given the length of tenure...

Other items of note in no particualar order
The airport would be back to pre covid cash generating levels in 2024
One NZ delivered or exceeded IFT base case in recent buy out and was tracking positively, I still don't see the fit of holding a mature domestic telco - but they've made an astonishing return by buying an underperforming asset and releasing the business potential through divestment of towers, simplification and improved management in the core business. I'd prefer to see it rolled off - but if can be a massive cash cow both retained or sold down - and Jason Paris is such a strong leader hard not to enjoy seeing it steadily mature. I always enjoy the interplay across JP and GB the respective CEOs of One NZ and CDC and One tries to keep up with that datacentre business growth and shine bright in a galaxy of dazzling stars..

Concerns. Not many...
Growth pains, how to finance the optionality!
Eternally waiting for Galileo to make some real traction
Holding too much value in a large domestic telco - with substantial gearing - could some black swan event upset that apple cart and dent the trajectory...
Not much else.
Still believe if the NZ analysts community were asked their 5 year share price targets rather than their dumb broker fuelled 1 year spot price targets they'd universally say IFT and we'd see so much greater recognition.... hey ho, let's hope the new CFO can speed up the depth of disclosure and the NZ analysts can ask their clients to tuck away their portoflio's for a decade in this asset (yea right! goodbye broker fees).


Great post and most of my Task cash will go into this share at some point. I have added a small parcel for now, but honestly we need Blackpeter to give the negative side of investing with IFT, I just don’t see them!!!

[Leemsip]

Thanks Pie. Good post

[mike2020]

Thanks. I enjoyed the read. I have been building a small holding. Its one of the few nzx assets I have real long term confidence in lately.

[Ggcc]

Climbing very rapidly today. That is nice to see. Maybe another All Time high around the corner

[kiora]

Index buying ahead of end of the month?
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/IFT.NZ/holders/

[Toddy]

A fair bit of stock changed hands after the bell today. Always a good sign when the Brokers are working after 5 to fill orders.

[warthog]

Been a while since i've posted on this thread. Had some time to digest the investor day packs and watch the presentation. So a few random thoughts.
IMHO IFT remains the best placed risk adjusted public investment on NZX by a long shot. So many tail winds are in evidence, but particularly the AI growth into datacentre deployment, into data infrastructure growth and finally into green renewable energy demand. IFT sits across so many strong thematics / tail winds / growth areas. Beautifully positioned / poised!


Interesting post 3141592. Thank you.

IFT features significantly in the hog's current portfolio. It is well-positioned in respect of the confluence of large-scale trends we find ourselves in the midst of.

[warthog]

A fair bit of stock changed hands after the bell today. Always a good sign when the Brokers are working after 5 to fill orders.

Interesting. It's been the hog's understanding that in NZ, post-market transactions are simply the eventual reporting of intraday position crosses and off-market transfers, etc.

Do you have some first-hand, NZ experience that gives you more robust insights or certainty into such transactions? If so, would appreciate hearing.

[mwri]

Close to hitting that $11 mark

[Toddy]

Interesting. It's been the hog's understanding that in NZ, post-market transactions are simply the eventual reporting of intraday position crosses and off-market transfers, etc.

Do you have some first-hand, NZ experience that gives you more robust insights or certainty into such transactions? If so, would appreciate hearing.

True, but this is the NZX where there is plenty of time to do the paperwork during the daytime.

My feeling is that there is some news on the way.

.

[Muse]

Interesting. It's been the hog's understanding that in NZ, post-market transactions are simply the eventual reporting of intraday position crosses and off-market transfers, etc.

Do you have some first-hand, NZ experience that gives you more robust insights or certainty into such transactions? If so, would appreciate hearing.

link below makes for good reading, I refer to it often to remind myself how it all works.

https://www.nzx.com/services/nzx-trading/anatomy-of-a-trading-day


"Once the opening auction has completed, the market goes in to its Continuous or Regular Trading Session. This is the session that most people recognize as the market trading session. Bids and Offers can be placed, amended and deleted, on-market trades can occur (if a bid price and an offer price “meet”), and off-market trades can be reported to market. This session is continuous – with no breaks – from 10:00am until 4:45pm every trading day, and is the session in which most trading occurs.

At 4:45pm, the market enters its Pre-Close Session. The Pre-Close session is virually the same as the Pre-Open session – it just occurs at a different time of the day. In Pre-Close, you can place, delete and amend orders, but you cannot report off-market trades. Any off-market orders negotiated during this time must be reported during the Adjust session (see below).

The Closing Auction occurs at a random time 30 seconds either side of 5:00pm (ie, at any time between 16:59:30 and 17:00:30). Like the opening auction, the closing auction is a single price print which becomes the official close of the stock on the day. If there are no trades in a stock in the closing auction, the last sale during the regular session becomes the official closing price for the day.

The Closing Auction algorithm is exactly the same as that used in the Opening Auction. It will compute the price at which it can clear the greatest amount of stock, and all bids and offers at, and overlapping, this level will execute at this, single, closing print price.

After the Closing Auction print, the market enters its Adjust Session. In this session, orders can be amended, but not improved (ie bid prices can be reduced and offer prices moved higher, but not the converse, and order sizes can be reduced but not increased). Existing orders can be cancelled, but new orders cannot be placed into the market. Off-market trades can be reported.

At 5:30pm, the market re-enters its Enquiry State, and the whole cycle starts again."


A lot of insto trading occurs during closing auctions.

I also find closing auctions a useful tool to buy or move stock in the lower liquidity NZX50 shares where there is a quarterly rebalance.

[warthog]

True, but this is the NZX where there is plenty of time to do the paperwork during the daytime.

My feeling is that there is some news on the way.


Recent insider buys point in this direction.

[warthog]

link below makes for good reading, I refer to it often to remind myself how it all works.

https://www.nzx.com/services/nzx-trading/anatomy-of-a-trading-day


"Once the opening auction has completed, the market goes in to its Continuous or Regular Trading Session. This is the session that most people recognize as the market trading session. Bids and Offers can be placed, amended and deleted, on-market trades can occur (if a bid price and an offer price “meet”), and off-market trades can be reported to market. This session is continuous – with no breaks – from 10:00am until 4:45pm every trading day, and is the session in which most trading occurs.

Thanks for this, Muse. :t_up:

[mike2020]

Does anyone see an advantage buying IFT on the asx?

[lissica]

Does anyone see an advantage buying IFT on the asx?

If you have funds in an Australian cash management account and don't want to lose out on currency conversion?

I've owned various dual listed shares on both NZX and ASX at various times for the reason above.

[mike2020]

Thanks, that is the reason I have to date, the price of IFT seems to track the NZX price pretty closely.

[RTM]

Thanks, that is the reason I have to date, the price of IFT seems to track the NZX price pretty closely.

If you use IB the brokerage might be less ? Of course you can’t buy NZX stocks using IB, which is a pity.

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php

[Bjauck]

Recent insider buys point in this direction.
Under continuous reporting requirements wouldn’t matters affecting the price be required to have already been released. Otherwise it is insider trading.

[mike2020]

Under continuous reporting requirements wouldn’t matters affecting the price be required to have already been released. Otherwise it is insider trading.
I really think everything is out in the open. Directors see value and expect a market rerate in the foreseeable future.

[warthog]

I really think everything is out in the open. Directors see value and expect a market rerate in the foreseeable future.

Yes, full disclosures as one would expect. The hog wouldn't expect management to be making sizeable investments if they didn't feel at least the medium-term prospects were looking healthy.

[Toddy]

Ift may test it's all time high later today.

Small volumes so far, but the big players normally enter the market later in the afternoon.

[kiora]

Jason Paris reflects on one year of One NZ

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/technology/jason-paris-reflects-on-one-year-of-one-nz?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=a8176e38c4-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-a8176e38c4-446239310

[kiora]

5g little monetary return
Fiber big business oportunity for wholesale to other providers B to B & B to C
Not going to loss job from AI,more likely to loss job to someone who knows more about AI
AI going to reduce head count & where to improve service & speed of improved service
Space X: customers able to text not just remotely but also if overseas
All mobile users even other telcos will be able to use Space x to dial 111
Mobile voice & data will follow quickly

1m less service calls.Cost $10/call to service.
Customer upgrades automatically.
Things that used to take weeks now take hours with AI
Self optimising standard AI use

Jason mentioned One NZ now worth $5b?
Not a bad return:$1/2 b for first tranch after selling of towers?
$2b for second tranch?

So now worth double what it has cost IFT? Maybe less debt
From Infratil FY2023 Interim Report
"Comparing the carrying
value of Infratil’s investment immediately before obtaining control to the fair value results in a gain on acquisition of $1,064.5 million"

[LaserEyeKiwi]

5g little monetary return
Fiber big business oportunity for wholesale to other providers
Not going to loss job from AI,more likely to loss job to someone who knows more about AI
AI going to reduce head count & where to improve service & speed of improved service
Space X: customers able to text not just remotely but also if overseas
All mobile users even other telcos will be able to use Space x to dial 111
Mobile voice & data will follow quickly

Jason mentioned One NZ now worth $5b
Not a bad return:$1/2 b for first tranch after selling of towers?
$2b for second tranch?

So now worth double what it has cost IFT?

At last month’s investor day, they had a $3.02 Billion valuation as at Dec 31st…?

[kiora]

"https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-growth-digital-infra-has-only-just-begun-bevan-slattery-1e7tc/
" The same applies to connectivity. All this data needs to be accessed, stored, processed/trained, re-stored, added to, reprocessed and distributed. Connectivity is about to enter the hyperscale world. Networks interconnecting data sources and hyperscale AI processing centres will need to be incredibly flexible, massively scalable, insanely burstable and 100% software definable."
" critical - submarine cables are to underpin the insatiable connectivity requirements to sustain this growth and why are going to be even more critical in the next 3 years,"
" why getting access to as much compute, chips, data, scientists, energy, and compute space is vital. I can sum it up in one word. That word is arbitrage."
" No one is going to complain about GPU or data centre pricing for the next 3 years because the cost of not investing will be a 10-50x destruction of your market capitalisation. If you don’t keep up, you will be left behind. Just ask Intel"

The replies are telling
"Cracking write-up Bev.

I caught the Acquired podcast's chat with Jensen Huang last week and wow, NVIDIA are just set up to take the prize. They took bets on new industries/demands 10 years before anyone else each time, and infrastructure will be the equivalent of selling shovels in a gold-rush."
"Another opportunity is to make sure all that growth is supported by renewable energy, or more importantly critical resiliency on renewable energy."

[kiora]

IFT now clearing a runway to $15 SP?
May be need to clear 1 or 2 business sales first to recycle capital?
If they can achieve 1 or even better the second one as well then?

[kiora]

These look like a very fortuitous buys
"Console Connect carries ~17% of all internet traffic and reaches over 150 countries and is the only digital platform that is underpinned by one of the world’s largest private networks and a Tier 1 global IP network that is ranked in the top 10 for IPv4 and IPv6 peering, delivering higher levels of network performance, speed, and security to meet the digital needs of today’s interconnected users and communities.

Accessible from 850+ data centres in 50+ countries worldwide, the platform is integrated with all major hyperscale cloud providers, including AWS, Google Cloud, IBM Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Alibaba Cloud and more. Through the Console Connect portal or via its API, users can access a broad range of native and third-party solutions.

In addition, Console Connect offers a wide range of security, voice, mobility, SD-WAN, colocation and managed network solutions that complement its Automated Services."
https://infratil.com/news/strategic-investment-in-console-connect/

One NZ

"With four international points of presence (POP) in the USA and Australia, we can provide connectivity to Tier 1 ISPs and cloud service providers across the globe.

We were the first New Zealand provider to offer optical capacity across all three international fibre optic cables - Tasman Global Access (TGA), Southern Cross and Hawaiki - enabling high capacity and high-speed data transfer to power your operations."
https://one.nz/our-networks/infrastructure-partners/assets/

How much extra data carried and income will AI require at little extra cost to One NZ?
1.2,3,4,5,6,6,7,8... X
I wouldn't have a clue myself but suspect big number

[kiora]

I've been looking on line for a new fiber Co One NZ may have set up?

I couldn't find it but found these instead

I've found this interesting what Jason was talking about in the interview

Hourua

https://www.hourua.nz/hourua
Spark, Vodafone joint venture to boost first responders’ communication services
https://www.minterellison.co.nz/insights/spark-vodafone-joint-venture-to-boost-first-responders-communication-services

RURAL CONNECTIVITY GROUP LIMITED

https://oversightsolutions.co.nz/profile/HOURUA-LIMITED#google_vignette
https://www.thercg.co.nz/
https://media.one.nz/aotearoas-new-public-safety-network-for-emergency-responders

Nz 3 network operators to share network
https://www.tcf.org.nz/industry-hub/number-portability/toll-free-number-portability

TNAS LIMITED

Allocating and porting New Zealand toll free numbers

Toll free number portability allows a customer to change their service provider while retaining their toll free number. The joint venture has developed a common industry database system known as the TNAS System for the introduction of toll free number portability in New Zealand.

[kiora]

If you're not there yet you will be left in the dust?

"How AI-Powered Medical Imaging is Transforming Healthcare"
Abstract: AI-powered medical imaging is revolutionizing the field of healthcare by helping doctors provide more accurate, efficient, and personalized diagnosis and treatment options for their patients. With the help of deep learning algorithms, medical imaging technology now enables medical practitioners to identify abnormalities and detect diseases with a higher level of precision and speed than ever before. This has contributed to significant improvements in the accuracy of diagnosis, the efficiency of treatment, and the overall quality of patient care. In this blog, we will explore how AI-powered medical imaging is helping to transform healthcare, its benefits and challenges, and the future of this innovative technology"
https://www.onixnet.com/blog/how-ai-powered-medical-imaging-is-transforming-healthcare/

[Ggcc]

All this hyping may bring blackpeter back. I hope so as I do miss his analysis on other shares, maybe not this one.

[Toddy]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/elon-musk-predicts-ai-will-overtake-human-intelligence-next-year/NU6GILII6JFPHK6HVBQI2IEJ4U/

Elon Musk predicts A1 will overtake human intelligence next year as long as the supply of electricity and hardware can satisfy demand.

Scary!

[huxley]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/elon-musk-predicts-ai-will-overtake-human-intelligence-next-year/NU6GILII6JFPHK6HVBQI2IEJ4U/

Elon Musk predicts A1 will overtake human intelligence next year as long as the supply of electricity and hardware can satisfy demand.

Scary!

“Musk was backed into several embarrassing statements, and commented early on that he had “a limited understanding” of “what the lawsuit is about.”

- Not A Genius

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elon-musk-didnt-want-his-latest-deposition-released-here-it-is_n_66133d2ce4b0d81853f9a766

[LaserEyeKiwi]

There she blows!!!

15046

[Ggcc]

Almost a new ATH. Where is Black Peter when you need him.

[Toddy]

Is today the day where Ift breaks the 11 bucks.

One day I will be right.....

[warthog]

Is today the day where Ift breaks the 11 bucks.

One day I will be right.....

The hog suspects that once $11 is substantially breached there is significant room for appreciation above.

[Ggcc]

Is today the day where Ift breaks the 11 bucks.

One day I will be right.....

It will happen just be patient because when it does, the next obstacle will be $12

[Swala]

I think it's the market generally that's holding it back at present.

[Ggcc]

Thurr she blows $11.11!!! Well done holders. Another ATH

[RTM]

15071

Last trade helped a bit

[LaserEyeKiwi]

15071

Last trade helped a bit

Nice, great seeing it bump us to a solid close above $11

[Toddy]

Hopefully we will see some Fomo prior to the annual results being released in a couple of weeks.

[kiora]

Power demand to ramp up from AI,EV & Bitcoin

"Microsoft and Brookfield Sign Biggest-Ever Clean Power Deal"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-strikes-renewable-power-deal-115226797.html

"Technology companies are clamoring for more clean energy to meet their own climate goals, just as overall energy demand is rising.
It’s difficult to estimate the cost for 10.5 gigawatts of new capacity because development costs vary significantly by energy type and location. But if all the development was US solar farms, they would cost more than $11.5 billion to build
power generator Exelon Corp. predicted a 900% jump in power demand from data centers planned in the Chicago area.
Such a dramatic forecast presents a challenge for technology companies to secure additional power supplies while simultaneously reducing emissions. Microsoft has a goal of matching all its electricity consumption with zero-carbon energy purchases by 2030.
Microsoft is pouring billions into developing its AI capabilities, and the data centers needed to support them, because it sees the technology as a key tool to attract customers for its cloud computing services"

[Toddy]

The new man to join the team at Ift is James Shaw.

He will be in charge of driving the next generation of investment opportunities that support global decarbonisation.

What a talent to have on board.

[Bjauck]

The new man to join the team at Ift is James Shaw.

He will be in charge of driving the next generation of investment opportunities that support global decarbonisation.

What a talent to have on board.
I think it is an astute move, although there will be some IFT shareholders who may now need need to shift their attitude towards James Shaw, the former co-leader of the Green Party. He also brings his experience of dealing with government red tape. Maybe he will form the Chamelon Party as his next gig when he leaves Morrison. All power to him as a green capitalist.

[kiora]

"Wind farms are deflationary and capital costs reduce over time
India is ahead of the trend, with solar and wind locked in at US$30 a megawatt hour"
https://stockhead.com.au/energy/turns-out-wind-farms-are-deflationary-here-are-3-stocks-with-stakes-gusting-up-to-several-knots-at-times/
"Basically, with wind and solar you just have to build the infrastructure to capture the energy, and from there on out it’s freely available and capital costs fall over time – as opposed to ye olde fossil fuels where you have ongoing capital costs in exploration for new reserves and drilling wells."

[mistymountain]

Power demand to ramp up from AI,EV & Bitcoin

"Microsoft and Brookfield Sign Biggest-Ever Clean Power Deal"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-strikes-renewable-power-deal-115226797.html

"Technology companies are clamoring for more clean energy to meet their own climate goals, just as overall energy demand is rising.
It’s difficult to estimate the cost for 10.5 gigawatts of new capacity because development costs vary significantly by energy type and location. But if all the development was US solar farms, they would cost more than $11.5 billion to build
power generator Exelon Corp. predicted a 900% jump in power demand from data centers planned in the Chicago area.
Such a dramatic forecast presents a challenge for technology companies to secure additional power supplies while simultaneously reducing emissions. Microsoft has a goal of matching all its electricity consumption with zero-carbon energy purchases by 2030.
Microsoft is pouring billions into developing its AI capabilities, and the data centers needed to support them, because it sees the technology as a key tool to attract customers for its cloud computing services"

Although Small Modular Reactor Nuclear Baseload Power is high on the agenda for Big Tech to deliver the AI Global Citizens, Corporates and Government demand.

Here in NZ our 100% non Nuclear Energy and 100% reliance on ESG Renewables may be an Achilles Heal for our domestic Power users.

El Nino; low hydro? No wind blowing? No solar storage systems? Big cold freezes through the 2024 winter??

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Although Small Modular Reactor Nuclear Baseload Power is high on the agenda for Big Tech to deliver the AI Global Citizens, Corporates and Government demand.

Here in NZ our 100% non Nuclear Energy and 100% reliance on ESG Renewables may be an Achilles Heal for our domestic Power users.

El Nino; low hydro? No wind blowing? No solar storage systems? Big cold freezes through the 2024 winter??

Well there exists a very easy off the shelf solution to this, and Australia is doing it like crazy to load balance their grids. Battery farms.

Boggles my mind this hasn’t been done for Auckland yet. Problem is generators are incentivized to not provide solutions like this because it would eliminate peak demand price gouging that they absolutely love.

[mfd]

Well there exists a very easy off the shelf solution to this, and Australia is doing it like crazy to load balance their grids. Battery farms.

Boggles my mind this hasn’t been done for Auckland yet. Problem is generators are incentivized to not provide solutions like this because it would eliminate peak demand price gouging that they absolutely love.

WEL networks have already built the first grid scale battery farm near Huntly, Meridian are currently building a much larger plant in Ruakaka and Genesis are planning to build another large plant near Huntly, FID due soon.

[mwri]

Would these SMR’s be classed similarly as a rigid base load with poor ramp times or do they address this issue?

[kiora]

WEL networks have already built the first grid scale battery farm near Huntly, Meridian are currently building a much larger plant in Ruakaka and Genesis are planning to build another large plant near Huntly, FID due soon.

Expensive?

[mistymountain]

Am curious on the elements needed to create the batteries... having followed the Vanadium / Copper / Nickel narrative for the last 3 years closely I look at our Green Party and Labour's "no new mines" mantra and wonder about the hypocrisy.

And will these batteries have the Capacity so store future domestic energy demand...

[mfd]

Am curious on the elements needed to create the batteries... having followed the Vanadium / Copper / Nickel narrative for the last 3 years closely I look at our Green Party and Labour's "no new mines" mantra and wonder about the hypocrisy.

And will these batteries have the Capacity so store future domestic energy demand...

These grid batteries seem to only have capacity to run full throttle for 2-3 hours once fully charged. Useful for smoothing out demand and production over the day (maybe would have been useful last week?) or as fast response but pretty useless over any longer timeframe.

[kiora]

These grid batteries seem to only have capacity to run full throttle for 2-3 hours once fully charged. Useful for smoothing out demand and production over the day (maybe would have been useful last week?) or as fast response but pretty useless over any longer timeframe.

So they would need to be in series?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

These grid batteries seem to only have capacity to run full throttle for 2-3 hours once fully charged. Useful for smoothing out demand and production over the day (maybe would have been useful last week?) or as fast response but pretty useless over any longer timeframe.

yes - that is the exact purpose!

Charge during periods of excess production & low prices, and discharge during periods of peak demand and high prices.

The large battery farms in Australia have both stabilized their grids and also paid for themselves in a few short years due to the massive price arbitrage opportunities.

[warthog]

yes - that is the exact purpose!

Charge during periods of excess production & low prices, and discharge during periods of peak demand and high prices.

The large battery farms in Australia have both stabilized their grids and also paid for themselves in a few short years due to the massive price arbitrage opportunities.

If there are such massive price arbitrage profits, that's great from a supplier perspective but is basically the equivalent for consumers of surge pricing but for power no?

[RTM]

yes - that is the exact purpose!

Charge during periods of excess production & low prices, and discharge during periods of peak demand and high prices.

The large battery farms in Australia have both stabilized their grids and also paid for themselves in a few short years due to the massive price arbitrage opportunities.

Curious, being a boat owner and constantly chasing one tail with batteries, how long do the batteries last do you know ?

[mfd]

If there are such massive price arbitrage profits, that's great from a supplier perspective but is basically the equivalent for consumers of surge pricing but for power no?

The arbitrage is doing the opposite of surge pricing. They will bid when supply is cheap (making it a little pricier) and offer when supply is pricey (making it a little cheaper). Acts as a smoothing function on price and supply.

Means that those really expensive bids from, say, a factory with contacted supply deciding to close for a shift and selling back the power, are no longer needed.

[warthog]

The arbitrage is doing the opposite of surge pricing. They will bid when supply is cheap (making it a little pricier) and offer when supply is pricey (making it a little cheaper). Acts as a smoothing function on price and supply.

Means that those really expensive bids from, say, a factory with contacted supply deciding to close for a shift and selling back the power, are no longer needed.

Interesting. Thanks for the reply.

A classic arbitrage will take advantage of pricing differences, geographic or time-based for example, in order to purchase low and sell at market. The hog is just wondering if there are periods of significant demand the pricing benefit for consumers (i.e. lower prices) are substantially dictated by competition between those able to remove duration/timing discrepancies. If there is limited competition from these players, the improvement in market efficiency will also be limited, no?

[Ggcc]

Whatever the discussion in regards to power supply for NZ and storage, this share, right now is a good opportunity for a longterm hold. Their primary future source of income right now is CDC, which coincidentally uses lots of power. I was just talking with people today who find our power expensive. They really need to go to Europe where Gas and Power is fricken expensive. Some good discussions to bring up at the roadshow coming up. I will be going to the one in Napier and will ask a question or two if Necessary.

[winner69]

Wellington Airport had a sizeable loss

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WIA/431077/418452.pdf

[Toddy]

Wellington Airport had a sizeable loss

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WIA/431077/418452.pdf

All stats are positive. Hit with one off cost due to the new Commercial building depreciation schedule.

[winner69]

All stats are positive. Hit with one off cost due to the new Commercial building depreciation schedule.

EBITDAF was up …that’s main thing insofar as Infratil are concerned isn’t it?

[Ferg]

Wellington airport:

Net operating profit before tax $20m
Less tax expense $49m
Net operating loss after tax ($29m)

Included in the $49m tax expense is $44m of deferred tax losses due to the change in building depreciation rules. Note A5 says : "Deferred tax impact from reversal of depreciation on buildings". Deferred tax is non cash.

Source: https://www.wellingtonairport.co.nz/documents/4242/WIAL_Annual_Report_FY24.pdf

[ronaldson]

Wellington airport:

Net operating profit before tax $20m
Less tax expense $49m
Net operating loss after tax ($29m)

Included in the $49m tax expense is $44m of deferred tax losses due to the change in building depreciation rules. Note A5 says : "Deferred tax impact from reversal of depreciation on buildings". Deferred tax is non cash.

Source: https://www.wellingtonairport.co.nz/documents/4242/WIAL_Annual_Report_FY24.pdf

I tried to understand this because it seemed a rather large sum to bring to account due to the change in depreciation rules for non residential structures, and I hold a lot of ARG who will be similarly affected.

Can anyone reduce this circumstance to something so basic even I can comprehend how it works?

[Ferg]

I tried to understand this because it seemed a rather large sum to bring to account due to the change in depreciation rules for non residential structures, and I hold a lot of ARG who will be similarly affected.

Can anyone reduce this circumstance to something so basic even I can comprehend how it works?

I will give it a go but I apologise in advance for technical terms.

The income tax expense in the P&L for any given year is made of current tax expense (aka tax payable in cash) plus or minus deferred tax expense (which is non cash).

The current tax expense matches what is returned to the IRD every year per the income tax return. This is normal. This is what most small and medium sized businesses have - just current tax and no deferred tax.

Whereas deferred tax expense is an accounting construct that measures the tax effect of just timing differences between the tax return and what is showing in the accounts (note this is timing differences only, not permanent differences such as non-deductible expenditure). Using a different depreciation rate on assets for tax purposes versus that used for accounting purposes is an example of a timing difference where the company ends up with 2 different depreciation values. This is normal for Corporates to adopt such a practice - because they may want to depreciate an asset over a different time period to what the IRD allow for tax return purposes.

{Note that if you hold the asset to the death then all the depreciation differences will eventually reverse to zero. Hence it is a timing difference between tax years. The company has a higher or lower taxable profit in earlier years relative to accounting profit, that then reverses in later years. And this is where changes to the building depreciation deductibility rates impact the airport given the reversals can now not happen.}

So back to Wellington Airport. They reversed a deferred tax asset of $44m which resulted in an increase in their tax expense in the P&L of $44m. Assuming a 28% tax rate, this tells me the company had $157m of timing differences related to building depreciation accumulated over many years. In other words, the airport had been running accounting depreciation at a higher rate than the income tax returns (possibly due to unrealised revaluations perhaps?) and they were expecting this to reverse in years to come. However, given the Government changed the tax legislation this 'asset' cannot now be crystallised or reversed naturally in future which meant they had to write it off......hence the extra $44m tax cost which is a one-off correction.

Hopefully that makes sense....?

[Toddy]

I know that IFT love the cashflows and leverage that the Airport gives them.

But if there is one asset that does not fit their portfolio strategy now, it's Wellington Airport.

Hopefully they can package the business up and sell it on in the near future.

[Snoopy]

I tried to understand this because it seemed a rather large sum to bring to account due to the change in depreciation rules for non residential structures, and I hold a lot of ARG who will be similarly affected.

Can anyone reduce this circumstance to something so basic even I can comprehend how it works?


Good explanation from Ferg. If you aren't familiar with the technical terms it is worth reading two or three times to let the whole explanation sink in. The thing that threw me a few years ago when looking into this accelerated depreciation effect myself was that it seemed very odd that a company could arrogantly disregard the Inland Revenue depreciation rules and set their own depreciation schedule. A sort of two fingered 'we know better' salute to the IRD (for public reporting purposes at least)! But I guess depreciation rules are formulated on a 'one size fits all' basis. And if your company is a 'different fit', those IRD sanctioned depreciation rules will give a false view of profits.

Ronaldson, you should be aware that the removal of 'building depreciation' as a tax deduction in the future applies only to the structural elements of buildings. Depreciation on other parts of the building like lifts, air conditioning systems, floor coverings, curtains and blinds, built in office furniture and non structural partitions are still allowable deduction items. This means that using Wellington Airport as an example of what to expect from the effect of the revised depreciation rules on Argosy may not pan out, as the type of buildings at at airport may not be analogous to the office tower and big box mix found within the Argosy property portfolio.

SNOOPY

[Bjauck]

Taxable Income for NZ Inland Revenue purposes may not necessarily be regarded as income as is generally understood or even as far as other tax authorities are concerned

[LaserEyeKiwi]

<deleted wrong thread>

[ronaldson]

Thank you Ferg et al on this forum for your comments.

I am not a holder of IFT, but ARG reports on 22 May so I will look to closely follow the impact of again removing depreciation on the structural elements of non-residential buildings as a deductable expense, and the consequence on the Deferred Tax provision as shown in ARG's most recent Financial Statements (said in the note to the IFT statements to be a "non cash" adjustment).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I know that IFT love the cashflows and leverage that the Airport gives them.

But if there is one asset that does not fit their portfolio strategy now, it's Wellington Airport.

Hopefully they can package the business up and sell it on in the near future.

Will be interesting to see what happens with it as the other shareholder, Wellington City Council, is debating whether to exit its shareholding. Whether or not if infratil wishes to remain as owner, or dispose of it, it will be beneficial either way if they had 100% ownership.

On a related note, there is actually an interesting small threat to the monopolies currently enjoyed by New Zealand’s airports in the form of a new high speed transport alternative that may eat into some of the regional domestic market for NZ airports within a couple of years. If the business model of this new company linked to below actually holds up, it would mean Airports like Auckland & Wellington would increasingly be focused on long distance & high capacity routes, whereas regional routes that are linked by open water would have much better economics using these new aircraft that don’t have to pay any landing fees at an airport.

https://www.oceanflyer.co.nz/news-monte

NZ is a pretty good launch market for this product - most of our population live in coastal cities. Auckland to Tauranga would be a good route, as would Wellington to Picton, Nelson & Christchurch.

I wonder if port companies might end up with new revenue streams.

[kiora]

What we alread knew?
"Data centre investments: real or hype (and the 14 key insights all investors need to be aware of)"

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/data-centre-investments-real-or-hype-and-the-14-key-insights-all-investors-need-to-be-aware-of?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Saturday%2018%20May%202024&utm_content=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Saturday%2018%20May%202024+CID_0562b5e1f6b17f34 518841bd08075f92&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=READ%20MORE
"Demand has arrived.

Global leasing activity has surged, achieving record-breaking levels in each of the last four quarters. Remarkably, more megawatts have been leased in this twelve month period than in the preceding three and a half years."

"The size of the generative AI market is set to grow exponentially, with revenues forecast to grow almost 20-fold to US$1.3trillion by 2032. Generative AI requires a tremendous amount of power relative to non-AI use, particularly in the training phase. Growth in the global AI market is certain to create ample demand for additional data centre capacity."
"Supply is responding. Capacity under construction in the US has surged to just over 3,000MW at the end of 2023. However over 80% of current construction is already pre-leased, compared to ~50% in prior years. This significantly decreases the risk of oversupply.

With development profits of 40%+ and stabilised net operating income (NOI) yields of 9%+, developments are proving to be lucrative which may suggest supply will accelerate from here (posing future investment risk). However, difficulty sourcing power and procuring generators and transformers are adding multi-year delays to the development timeline. "
"The chart shows the annual 15-year forecast peak power load forecast of Dominion Energy, who is the energy provider for North Virginia and surrounds. Notably, there is a substantial increase in future peak loads forecasted since the 2022 report. Utility providers in the US such as Dominion, have been taken by surprise by the rapid growth of data centre power demands, which has led to years of underinvestment in power generation and transmission infrastructure. There are upwards of seven year wait times for additional power, for development projects in cities such as Los Angeles.

Demand > supply = falling vacancies and surging rents…though not every market is benefiting"

[blackcap]

Will be interesting to see what happens with it as the other shareholder, Wellington City Council, is debating whether to exit its shareholding. Whether or not if infratil wishes to remain as owner, or dispose of it, it will be beneficial either way if they had 100% ownership.



https://www.oceanflyer.co.nz/news-monte

NZ is a pretty good launch market for this product - most of our population live in coastal cities. Auckland to Tauranga would be a good route, as would Wellington to Picton, Nelson & Christchurch.

I wonder if port companies might end up with new revenue streams.

Looks interesting but will be at least 10 years away, especially how slow the regulators work in this country. I wonder if they even have their Part 102 from CAA. Looks like in a startup phase, but who knows, I may be wrong.

[Toddy]

Off to the races tomorrow for IFT supporters.

Im nervous as the market picks up on the smallest of negatives at the moment.

[kiora]

Panic buying today?

https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/ift.nzx/

Wild as swing trade & profitable !

[huxley]

Panic buying today?

Quite often it races up the day before an announcement then pulls back when they deliver what they said. But still, all time high at $11.25?

[mike2020]

Panic buying today?

I have high hopes for IFT... it might even save KFL's upcoming warrants.

[Toddy]

I took a screen shot of today's closing price incase their is a bit of a ski slope tomorrow. If there is, it will be short lived.

Heading into the annual result at $11.25 is an impressive return. The sp was around $9.50 this time last year.

[Ggcc]

I was going to post about another ATH and then I thought don’t you have done it enough, although I haven’t mentioned it enough that the share price will go higher than today’s end.

[Toddy]

They did it again. How impressive.

Let's see how the market reacts.

[Ggcc]

They did it again. How impressive.

Let's see how the market reacts.
Very happy with the results, but no idea where the share will end up today and don't care, although I assume it will go higher

[Toddy]

Very happy with the results, but no idea where the share will end up today and don't care, although I assume it will go higher

I've let alot the the talk on this forum get to my head and doubt IFT.
But take Retire Australia for example. They just make the business work with super cashflows. No mention of valuations this and that, just outright sales, cash, waiting lists etc. A total understanding of the 'Real' business.

[maclir]

Indeed. And interestingly it was one they were - probably still are - keen to exit. But with no reasonable sale opportunity, they just oversee that it is run very well.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

IFT. Absolute ballers. I always hate seeing the size of the management fee, but man do they continue to justify it with extraordinary returns.

[huxley]

Net asset value per share $14.35

Feels a bit like the numbers provided by the likes of Blackstone and Brookfield, but I’ll take it!!

[Ggcc]

IFT. Absolute ballers. I always hate seeing the size of the management fee, but man do they continue to justify it with extraordinary returns.
We might see 5 days worth of downward pressure for the management fee will be taken up in shares worth $50 million at 98% of the average share value over the next 5 days. The lower it is the more shares they receive and the better it is for them longterm. Either way I have never felt a management fee is the issue.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$10.80c?

why the negative reaction?

[JeffW]

$10.80c?

why the negative reaction?

I suspect in part because of the proposed Capex this year - see slide 32 of the results presentation. Maybe a capital raise on the way?

[RTM]

$10.80c?

why the negative reaction?

I don't know and really, seriously, I don't care. The report is solid. I like the stuff they are invested in. They seem to be able to deliver, over and over again.
I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the ride.

A wee drop in the share price is only of concern if you intend to sell. I don't. And if it dropped a lot more, and no other negatives, I'd buy more.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Management were just asked on the conference call regarding funding options, they strongly indicated that they have plenty of scope for funding through debt and regular asset sales in the renewables segment that cap raises won’t be needed. (A lot of the renewables segment capex planned is for projects that are usually sold to third parties before the project capex is actually required)

[mshierlaw]

I just loved the graphic on the AL cover page. Shows the financial history of the company since inception. NICE! :t_up:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I just loved the graphic on the AL cover page. Shows the financial history of the company since inception. NICE! :t_up:

Yes! That was very nice, was staring at that for a while.

[Toddy]

One of my favourite lines is

'Wellington City Council will vote in June 2024 on whether to proceed with potential divestment of its shareholding'... And the cheeky line 'we will continue to watch with interest'.

[alokdhir]

I have high hopes for IFT... it might even save KFL's upcoming warrants.

IFT have dashed that hope ...maybe temporarily ...but next week FPH / MFT can still do some magic ...MFT maybe the dark horse as it seems very low expectations and it may surprise market !!

[Toddy]

IFT exceeded expectations. So what hope has Mft got in reality. Any negative news will see the sp react accordingly. FPH are like IFT, they will deliver on the upside.

[kiora]

"Starlink gets cellular video calls off the ground, albeit at low quality"

[/FONT][/COLOR][/SIZE]https://www.interest.co.nz/technology/127880/starlink-gets-cellular-video-calls-ground-albeit-low-quality
https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1792981845296160791?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1793013071469740228%7Ctwgr% 5E89f7d38427aaca670bf12190609d6bd9dbe97855%7Ctwcon %5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.interest.co.nz%2Ftechnol ogy%2F127880%2Fstarlink-gets-cellular-video-calls-ground-albeit-low-quality

[Toddy]

Tory Whanau has established a Wellington Council Business Group. Includes the likes of Brooke Roberts (Sharesies) and Mark McGuinness(Willis Bond).

So Tory looks like she will be heading into the Airport Sale meeting next month armed with answers to where the funds could be invested etc.

Positive steps.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Tory Whanau has established a Wellington Council Business Group. Includes the likes of Brooke Roberts (Sharesies) and Mark McGuinness(Willis Bond).

So Tory looks like she will be heading into the Airport Sale meeting next month armed with answers to where the funds could be invested etc.

Positive steps.

Question for everyone here: What do we want IFT to do with Wellington Airport if they gain 100% control?

It is currently the odd one out in the portfolio, and carries significant seismic risk in the long term. Personally I would be ok with a full sale, especially in a year or two once interest rates retreat and overseas pension funds start getting hungry for higher yielding infrastructure investments again.

[Ggcc]

Question for everyone here: What do we want IFT to do with Wellington Airport if they gain 100% control?

It is currently the odd one out in the portfolio, and carries significant seismic risk in the long term. Personally I would be ok with a full sale, especially in a year or two once interest rates retreat and overseas pension funds start getting hungry for higher yielding infrastructure investments again.
Good question and not an easy one to answer without insider knowledge. I will talk to one of the people at the roadshow and ask what they feel is the best step moving forward.

[Grimy]

I would like to think that with their history of airport ownership, they should be pretty clear in their own minds what they want to do with Wellington airport, either way.

[Toddy]

The Airport Investment is right up there with IFTs investment in the Port of Tauranga back in the day.

I would think a model more suited to the Wellington Council would be to float the Airport on the NZX. The Council could then keep some form of holding. This is where the Tory Business advice come into play.

IFT could then exit the investment and reinvest the funds in the growth sectors of its portfolio.