ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

It did occur to me some months back that burning through $40m+ is a fairly "brave call" considering the population in the US and given most can digest A1 milk quite comfortably. Pretty sure Geoff will have a good think about that and can be relied upon to make an objective decision in the long run best interests of the company based on good solid facts and trends.

If all of China goes into lockdown how are mothers going to get out and buy their A2 milk ? Breast feeding coming back into play ?

[mfd]

This is extremely speculative. At the last forecast they were predicting a 110% revenue increase in the US, and here are a few quotes from the investor briefing when Jane stepped down:

"The Board considers it is appropriate for the Company to target an EBITDA margin of at least 30% in the medium term.We consider this can be achieved without detriment to the opportunity to capture our desired long term market position in China and USA."

"The implementation and optimization phase we have entered into will be the intensive focus of the next 3-5 years. This will place significant time and increased travel demands on the CEO given that our core growth markets are China and the US."

And from Geoff himself:

"In particular, a2MC’s commitment to building a China and US business with multi-channel distribution capability will not change. I regard the present strategy and a natural extension of the work we have been doing over the last 5 years. Our China team is continuing to develop and its capability is building. The US team is now well established and the business growing strongly. Both businesses will continue to require significant investment which is incorporated in our most recent results and outlook."

Edit: furthermore, consider how similar the demographics in the US are to Australia, which was the original A2 market and still the main fresh A2 milk market, which is the primary product that has been launched in the US. A2 have an ~11% market share of the Australian fresh milk market, and this market share is still growing by ~10% per year. It took a fair while to get there, but if they can achieve an even vaguely similar trajectory in the US we will be sitting pretty. Note that when they built the Australia business they were running on the smell of an oily rag, and now they have a huge pot of money looking for opportunities to grow the business.

[Baa_Baa]

It did occur to me some months back that burning through $40m+ is a fairly "brave call" considering the population in the US and given most can digest A1 milk quite comfortably. Pretty sure Geoff will have a good think about that and can be relied upon to make an objective decision in the long run best interests of the company based on good solid facts and trends.

If all of China goes into lockdown how are mothers going to get out and buy their A2 milk ? Breast feeding coming back into play ?

You know you want some of this ATM action, but just can't quite find the trigger to pull. No worries, just put your FA and worries aside for a while and focus on the TA, it will present a good entry price in due course.

Heard of online buying, ecommerce and delivery to your door? ATM will not be compromised. Studies of the ATM supply channels support this.

Just be patient. $8-10 came and went, not sure where the next buy-in/accumalate will be, but it will come. This isn't a game of one-upmanship with your mates, it's about getting into a winning position at the best possible price, for a long hold capital gain, and potential dividends downstream.

imho, have a modest holding in this, a happy holding well in profits ... thanks to TA!

[couta1]

You know you want some of this ATM action, but just can't quite find the trigger to pull. No worries, just put your FA and worries aside for a while and focus on the TA, it will present a good entry price in due course.

Heard of online buying, ecommerce and delivery to your door? ATM will not be compromised. Studies of the ATM supply channels support this.

Just be patient. $8-10 came and went, not sure where the next buy-in/accumalate will be, but it will come. This isn't a game of one-upmanship with your mates, it's about getting into a winning position at the best possible price, for a long hold capital gain, and potential dividends downstream.

imho, have a modest holding in this, a happy holding well in profits ... thanks to TA! With the result just around the corner which I expect to be very good now seems a good time to buy, failing that wait for the first post result pullback.

[dompf]

It did occur to me some months back that burning through $40m+ is a fairly "brave call" considering the population in the US and given most can digest A1 milk quite comfortably. Pretty sure Geoff will have a good think about that and can be relied upon to make an objective decision in the long run best interests of the company based on good solid facts and trends.

If all of China goes into lockdown how are mothers going to get out and buy their A2 milk ? Breast feeding coming back into play ?

Lockdown isn't affecting packages being delivered - everything is shipping still in 1-2 days through JD and Alibaba (started shipping today) - I dont know many Chinese that dont order almost everything online to be delivered.

To be fair in lockdown pretty much everyone is sitting at home shopping online.

[peat]

Lockdown isn't affecting packages being delivered

Drones , or Uighurs?

[Blue Skies]

After SAARS outbreak the S&P 500 dropped 8.5% with stocks tied to China hit hardest.

With so much of it's business tied to China, anyone else find it hard to believe this virus & resulting massive disruption won't cause any problems for ATM & its business as usual & it's ambitious projected growth targets will continue to be met as if nothings happened ?
I know infants have to be fed, but really?

[couta1]

After SAARS outbreak the S&P 500 dropped 8.5% with stocks tied to China hit hardest.

With so much of it's business tied to China, anyone else find it hard to believe this virus & resulting massive disruption won't cause any problems for ATM & its business as usual & it's ambitious projected growth targets will continue to be met as if nothings happened ?
I know infants have to be fed, but really? Business as usual IMO, this virus wont last that long and besides it's not a hard one to kill compared to many that have gone before.

[King1212]

sell..sell..sell....everyone is going to die....there will be millions get infected....sell....

[see weed]

sell..sell..sell....everyone is going to die....there will be millions get infected....sell....
You sell sell sell. There will be no one to buy if they are all dead, so not to worry. Me buy buy buy...there will be millions to survive. My sister thinks I'm mad wearing a face mask this morning at pac-n-save. No one else had one on:confused:.

[Timesurfer]

Me buy buy buy...there will be millions to survive. My sister thinks I'm mad wearing a face mask this morning at pac-n-save. No one else had one on:confused:.

Good tactic ... get more people thinking about cashing up. I got to say it was like pulling teeth today on my buy order - 27, 46, 4, 50 ...

[couta1]

You sell sell sell. There will be no one to buy if they are all dead, so not to worry. Me buy buy buy...there will be millions to survive. My sister thinks I'm mad wearing a face mask this morning at pac-n-save. No one else had one on:confused:. Hey see weed are you going close to 100% before the result? think I'll stick with a more conservative 60-70% diworsification.

[MauroNZ]

You know you want some of this ATM action, but just can't quite find the trigger to pull. No worries, just put your FA and worries aside for a while and focus on the TA, it will present a good entry price in due course.

Heard of online buying, ecommerce and delivery to your door? ATM will not be compromised. Studies of the ATM supply channels support this.

Just be patient. $8-10 came and went, not sure where the next buy-in/accumalate will be, but it will come. This isn't a game of one-upmanship with your mates, it's about getting into a winning position at the best possible price, for a long hold capital gain, and potential dividends downstream.

imho, have a modest holding in this, a happy holding well in profits ... thanks to TA!


Hi Baa_Baa is that your price range?.

[see weed]

Hey see weed are you going close to 100% before the result? think I'll stick with a more conservative 60-70% diworsification.
Was at 100% last week but sold 13% on last Monday and Tuesday morning before Aussi opened and will buy back in before 27/2/20

[Lewylewylewy]

Stats nz, i think said +16% on dairy exports today.

[bull....]

a2 getting hammered i see , wonder if its to do with the thinking of a2 cows coming down with corona virus?

[dompf]

a2 getting hammered i see , wonder if its to do with the thinking of a2 cows coming down with corona virus?

A2 shares are sensitive to everything. If a cow sneezes we are in big trouble.

[couta1]

A2 shares are sensitive to everything. If a cow sneezes we are in big trouble. Loving these panic merchants.

[tomm]

The only way to stop the virus is , capable of producing SELF-CORONAVIRUS-TESTING-KIT to everyone in a mass scale , give out free.

[bull....]

The only way to stop the virus is , capable of producing SELF-CORONAVIRUS-TESTING-KIT to everyone in a mass scale , give out free.

can we use the testing kits on our cows?

[dompf]

Loving these panic merchants.

what are you on about Couta?

[kiora]

can we use the testing kits on our cows?

Same same but different Coronavirus Bull,sorry !
Nz cows only get it in GI tract c.f USA calves respiratory as well

[Timesurfer]

The perfect storm. Brexit, Harry and Megan, and Coronavirus. I am surprised A2 isn't down to single digits.

[Beagle]

The perfect storm. Brexit, Harry and Megan, and Coronavirus. I am surprised A2 isn't down to single digits.

Be very afraid. Megan has a Beagle lol https://twitter.com/MlleKatMichele/status/997570968871686145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5E tweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E997570968871686145&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.womansworld.com%2Fposts% 2Fanimals%2Fqueen-elizabeth-bonds-with-meghan-markles-beagle-guy-160400

[Blue Skies]

Loving these panic merchants.


Happy when SP goes up, and loving it when it goes down, whatever medication you're on, could I have some please? :)

[couta1]

what are you on about Couta? Lol I thought that was obvious with the sp going from $16.10 down to $14.95 over the last week with a good result just around the corner.

[Oberon]

Shoulda done a couta @ $16.10 while I was actually UP... Tough to get a break on A2. Great AGM and spike, then Jayne is given her marching orders. Geoff returns, the market stabilises and starts putting in some positive movement. Then, just as we start getting a bit of momentum, a bloody black swan flies in our faces a month out from 1H results. Anyway... on to February!

[Southern_Belle]

Shoulda done a couta @ $16.10 while I was actually UP... Tough to get a break on A2. Great AGM and spike, then Jayne is given her marching orders. Geoff returns, the market stabilises and starts putting in some positive movement. Then, just as we start getting a bit of momentum, a bloody black swan flies in our faces a month out from 1H results. Anyway... on to February!Good to have Geoff established in the drivers seat during this black swan. Imagine if Jayne was at the helm ready to jump. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305103

[bull....]

hammer time monday

[couta1]

Good to have Geoff established in the drivers seat during this black swan. Imagine if Jayne was at the helm ready to jump. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305103 Splashing a bit more of that cash pile around, ultimately a great marketing tool.

[iceman]

Splashing a bit more of that cash pile around, ultimately a great marketing tool.

Agree Couta. While not a supporter of companies splashing money around I think in this case ATM has done the right thing

[winner69]

Jayne/Geoffrey might have moved the market the day they said Jayne was sacked

Still about the same price as a day or two after that announcement

Maybe market doesn’t think Geoffrey is the man even though it’s a caretaker role.

Board says they like Jaynes strategy and will stick with it ...yeah right

A year or so in limbo until the new CEO comes up with a new strategy is not a good place to be for a growth company

I think we’re in for a couple of disappointing years.

The H1 will be OK because that’s Jaynes doing and we already know the answer - H2 will be telling

[Balance]

Jayne/Geoffrey might have moved the market the day they said Jayne was sacked

Still about the same price as a day or two after that announcement

Maybe market doesn’t think Geoffrey is the man even though it’s a caretaker role.

Board says they like Jaynes strategy and will stick with it ...yeah right

A year or so in limbo until the new CEO comes up with a new strategy is not a good place to be for a growth company

I think we’re in for a couple of disappointing years.

The H1 will be OK because that’s Jaynes doing and we already know the answer - H2 will be telling

Looks like China's GDP is going to take a big hit from the measures taken to contain the coronavirus.

What do people do when they have to tighten their belts?

First thing they do is to cut down on non-essentials (ATM is okay here as it is an essential) but second thing they do is to substitute premium products for cheaper products.

ATM could feel the impact badly under the second scenario.

[couta1]

hammer time monday Doesnt worry me, I've had many XXOS sized red arrows over the years with this company and have still made a lot of profit at the end of the day, sure I would have liked to have obtained my latest holding at a cheaper price but nothing is certain and the future isnt always knowable. One thing I do know is no shorters/downrampers/doom and gloom merchants or the like will get one of my many shares.

[dr_]

Oneday shorters will get burn like Tesla's shorters

[Southern_Belle]

Looks like China's GDP is going to take a big hit from the measures taken to contain the coronavirus.

What do people do when they have to tighten their belts?

First thing they do is to cut down on non-essentials (ATM is okay here as it is an essential) but second thing they do is to substitute premium products for cheaper products.

ATM could feel the impact badly under the second scenario.substituting premium product only for those with financial constraints. Others will be panic buying and guarantee all stock on the shelves will be snapped up. Daigou shoppers will be working overtime as people will be prepared to pay a premium.

Also the saving grace for A2 is their product has a good shelf life, it will be the more perishable products that have trouble. We are seeing that already with crayfish, meat products and I guess that the fruit will have a few set backs as well.

Manuka honey might do well too with it's claimed anti-bacterial properties. One thing for sure we will learn a lot about human behaviour in the coming weeks and months.

[Lewylewylewy]

With the incubation period of the coronavirus, some folk in China may wish to buy a milk product for their young and vulnerable, that hasn't been packed by people in China. Of course, how the people in China may react is random to me.

[Blue Skies]

substituting premium product only for those with financial constraints. Others will be panic buying and guarantee all stock on the shelves will be snapped up. Daigou shoppers will be working overtime as people will be prepared to pay a premium.

Also the saving grace for A2 is their product has a good shelf life, it will be the more perishable products that have trouble. We are seeing that already with crayfish, meat products and I guess that the fruit will have a few set backs as well.

Manuka honey might do well too with it's claimed anti-bacterial properties. One thing for sure we will learn a lot about human behaviour in the coming weeks and months.


Just a reminder coronavirus is a virus not a bacterial infection, so Manuka honeys antibacterial properties wouldn’t make the slightest difference.

[Dotbond]

Any idea who sold/bought the 400,000 shares at close on Friday?
Another short play coming up next week ?

[Balance]

Just a reminder coronavirus is a virus not a bacterial infection, so Manuka honeys antibacterial properties wouldn’t make the slightest difference.

All in the perception - supermarkets in some parts of Auckland have run out of dettol because of the perception that it kills coronavirus!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305141

Then, there's the run on face masks globally even though face masks are really only effective at keeping the virus in when a person is already infected.

[Blue Skies]

All in the perception - supermarkets in some parts of Auckland have run out of dettol because of the perception that it kills coronavirus!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305141

Then, there's the run on face masks globally even though face masks are really only effective at keeping the virus in when a person is already infected.


Agreed, when people are desperate some will try anything, rational goes out the window, herd instinct a powerful force & people literally throwing pet cats and dogs out of apartment windows because someone said they might transmit the virus shows the level of fear & panic.
However that doesn’t change the fact antibacterial things like antibiotics & Manuka honey are absolutely useless against viruses, and would hope most people would know that.

The active ingredient in Dettol is chloroxlenol and is widely found in most disinfectants. As a hard surface cleaner or on cuts & wounds it is effective in killing a wide range of bacteria and viruses so it’s probably quite effective for wiping down surfaces like lift buttons and door handles. Of course it’s poisonous so should never be used in an aerosol that people might breathe in. It’s also probably no more effective than many other disinfectants or simply washing your hands with soap & water.

From what I’ve read re the masks, since the virus is spread through both large droplets & fine aerosol particles, the light surgical masks offer a little protection about 6X as effective as no mask, compared to 100X the expensive N95 respirator masks but which are totally impractical for wearing for long periods in public.
Obviously it also depends on the environment, fine aerosol particles are going to float around a long time in still air of a sealed room, but quickly dispersed out in the open in a breeze.
That seems pretty logical & reasonable to me.

[bull....]

oh no another threat to a2

Chinese patriotism is new sales octane as millennials embrace home-grown brands at the expense of foreign icons
Trade war, boycotts stir nationalistic fervour, drives sales of guo huo, or home-grown brands, against foreign icons

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3048428/chinese-patriotism-new-sales-octane-millennials-embrace

[Chanchay]

Until it poisons their kids.

[Balance]

Until it poisons their kids.

That is a most disgusting, uncouth and inappropriate comment under the circumstances.

We do not need to wish ill on others to talk up our investments. :t_down:

You mean like more ‘adventure’ tourist attractions in NZ like White Island? Until more tourists get Killed?

Or more coal mines like Pike River, until more miners get killed?

Or better still, until another earthquake like ChCh and so called ‘certified’ buildings pancakes - killing those inside?

Careful what you wish for.

[Chanchay]

That is a most disgusting, uncouth and inappropriate comment under the circumstances.

We do not need to wish ill on others to talk up our investments. :t_down:

You mean like more ‘adventure’ tourist attractions in NZ like White Island? Until more tourists get Killed?

Or more coal mines like Pike River, until more miners get killed?

Or better still, until another earthquake like ChCh and so called ‘certified’ buildings pancakes - killing those inside?

Careful what you wish for.

You think that's offensive? Particularly rich considering your reputation.

All I'm saying is the melamine scandal went deep in the psyche of Chinese consumers when it comes to home grown products. I don't see the that changing in the short term.

[Balance]

You think that's offensive? Particularly rich considering your reputation.

All I'm saying is the melamine scandal went deep in the psyche of Chinese consumers when it comes to home grown products. I don't see the that changing in the short term.

You are not up with the times obviously about how the IF industry has changed in China - so read up before you make such a disgusting comment again, and certainly before you post on ATM again.

Try and talk sense.

Rich considering my reputation? Yup - one day you may actually recommend something which actually results in a lot of posters thanking you.

[Beagle]

oh no another threat to a2

Chinese patriotism is new sales octane as millennials embrace home-grown brands at the expense of foreign icons
Trade war, boycotts stir nationalistic fervour, drives sales of guo huo, or home-grown brands, against foreign icons

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3048428/chinese-patriotism-new-sales-octane-millennials-embrace

No question this new virus is going to have a serious effect on China's economy and it will undermine the confidence in the leadership to some extent.
The logical response to that would appear to be for the Communist party to place a major emphasis on pushing "Made in China" to support the economy getting back on its feet. Stir up nationalistic fervor so people have pride in their own country again. I think this could have serious legs.

[Blue Skies]

No question this new virus is going to have a serious effect on China's economy and it will undermine the confidence in the leadership to some extent.
The logical response to that would appear to be for the Communist party to place a major emphasis on pushing "Made in China" to support the economy getting back on its feet. Stir up nationalistic fervor so people have pride in their own country again. I think this could have serious legs.


Not wanting to add to the negativity but just to throw into the mix, China has agreed to purchase an extra $200 billion US goods in phase 1 of US - China trade agreement in return for US reducing tariffs on $120 billion of China goods, to be signed this week.
Has been concern this additional pressure on China imports may force a reduction on imports from other countries ( like NZ.)
UBS have stated it will be 'highly challenging for China to import an extra $200 billion in US goods & services over the next 2 years without reducing imports from other areas' (like NZ).
This was even before the impact of coronavirus.
However, am sure there's a hierarchy of needs and things like IF, medical products and quality food hopefully may remain relatively immune from reductions.

[Cadalac123]

I have a cardinal rule of not selling prior to reports. But I wonder if irrational market fear will cause the share price to not rise as much as it should. Tempted to sell but fundamentally the company is still a good one.

[couta1]

oh no another threat to a2

Chinese patriotism is new sales octane as millennials embrace home-grown brands at the expense of foreign icons


Trade war, boycotts stir nationalistic fervour, drives sales of guo huo, or home-grown brands, against foreign icons

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3048428/chinese-patriotism-new-sales-octane-millennials-embrace I've decided I'm not going to read or comment on this forum for a week, I reckon I'll just let the Trolls/Downrampers and Gloom and Doom merchants have a party amongst themselves, I've still got a bit of money to do a bit of trading and have got more positive things to do including going to the Queen concert and buying a really good Telescope.

[bull....]

I've decided I'm not going to read or comment on this forum for a week, I reckon I'll just let the Trolls/Downrampers and Gloom and Doom merchants have a party amongst themselves, I've still got a bit of money to do a bit of trading and have got more positive things to do including going to the Queen concert and buying a really good Telescope.

is the telescope to keep track of the a2 fall?

[winner69]

Yeah $14.10 will be a test but as you'll note I amended that post as from my observations the 30 day MA is a more useful indicator given its very high volatility.

Healthy to have opposing views on this one so the young ones get a variety of old hands opinions.

Jeez beagle said a few days ago the A2 share price of $14.10 is likely soon

Talk seems we’d be more than happy if it only fell to $14.10 next week

But $17 bucks could still happen

[RupertBear]

I've decided I'm not going to read or comment on this forum for a week, I reckon I'll just let the Trolls/Downrampers and Gloom and Doom merchants have a party amongst themselves, I've still got a bit of money to do a bit of trading and have got more positive things to do including going to the Queen concert and buying a really good Telescope.

Just bought a really good telescope myself Couta! An 8” Dobsonian. Its fabulous fun. Nothing more relaxing than gazing at the Moon and planets and nebula and other cosmic stuff after a roller coaster Market day. Get one you wont regret it!!!:D

[Balance]

Jeez beagle said a few days ago the A2 share price of $14.10 is likely soon

Talk seems we’d be more than happy if it only fell to $14.10 next week

But $17 bucks could still happen

Looks to me like A$12.70 as the support point - so $13.20 is the buy in point for the brave ones.

Big unknown is this :

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

Shorters down to 6.72% so they have bought back 17m shares - in effect, providing price support in recent times.

Do they come out to play (short again) or take the opportunity to cover?

[Beagle]

Jeez beagle said a few days ago the A2 share price of $14.10 is likely soon

Talk seems we’d be more than happy if it only fell to $14.10 next week

But $17 bucks could still happen


A test of $14.10 looking far more likely than $17 now !

[Baa_Baa]

A test of $14.10 looking far more likely than $17 now !

Agree with the current sentiment, from a TA perspective $14.10'ish an obvious support being around the close from the gap-up 19/11/19. The other 12.70 and 13.20 projection is less obvious in a fog of numerous days trading before that, except being the high from the gap up (three days previous) and some obscure low closes a week or so prior. We see what we want to see in the charts. It's how we factor that into our buy/sell/hold decisions that counts.

Personally in the current climate I can see sentiment potentially hammering this (TA), so the real question is where you would preserve your profits and where you'd risk your dry powder.

[Beagle]

Be careful out there folks. This may be an appropriate image, please note the size of the teeth and claws.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&id=EC19F12E0F498623DD3EDF2F96859A67E940831F&thid=OIP.qV2qOEFjGBgLO2koisgAJQHaE7&mediaurl=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.dailynews.com%2Farts%2 Ffiles%2F2018%2F04%2F327-Don_Kennell_Big_Bear_Cover-Large.jpg&exph=399&expw=600&q=picture+of+beagles+in+kennell&selectedindex=60&ajaxhist=0&vt=0&eim=1,6
He's not a real bear but the market might be ?
I'm staying in my kennel sitting on my dry powder for the foreseeable future.

[winner69]

Surely Geoffrey being in charge will keep the share price up ...I’m told he is the Messiah

[Beagle]

Surely Geoffrey being in charge will keep the share price up ...I’m told he is the Messiah

Our friend will be looking for the answer in the stars :)

[winner69]

Our friend will be looking for the answer in the stars :)

Full moon next weekend ....percy’s favourite time of the month

[Southern_Belle]

Interesting times for sure.

[winner69]

I've decided I'm not going to read or comment on this forum for a week, I reckon I'll just let the Trolls/Downrampers and Gloom and Doom merchants have a party amongst themselves, I've still got a bit of money to do a bit of trading and have got more positive things to do including going to the Queen concert and buying a really good Telescope.

Couts’s real reason for not coming here for a week is logistical

Just like Air NZ real reason for stopping flights to China was one of logistics - like they’d run of air crew just by going there (couldn’t fly to other places) Couts sees so many trading opportunities on the bourses this week his full and undivided attention is required and logistical just has to keep the fingers moving.

[bull....]

Couts’s real reason for not coming here for a week is logistical

Just like Air NZ real reason for stopping flights to China was one of logistics - like they’d run of air crew just by going there (couldn’t fly to other places) Couts sees so many trading opportunities on the bourses this week his full and undivided attention is required and logistical just has to keep the fingers moving.

i imagine couta will show up , if for some remarkable reason a2 actually rose today

[jallison]

Ad Nauseum

[Muppett]

Surely Geoffrey being in charge will keep the share price up ...I’m told he is the Messiah

Really.
His last forecast/presentation just before he departed was for a performance downgrade and the share price got hammered.
Then off into the sunset he went.
Now that he is back, he might do that again.
Makes him look good in the medium - long term.

[winner69]

Really.
His last forecast/presentation just before he departed was for a performance downgrade and the share price got hammered.
Then off into the sunset he went.
Now that he is back, he might do that again.
Makes him look good in the medium - long term.

Agree with you there Muppet ..... I think to many are in enamoured with Geoffrey and have too much faith in him.

[Sideshow Bob]

Agree with you there Muppet ..... I think to many are in enamoured with Geoffrey and have too much faith in him.

Well to be fair, if he is compared to Tennis Jayne, then it is no contest!

[Sideshow Bob]

Pretty ugly start to the week, down 75c/5% already.

Lets see what happens when the real trading starts at midday......

[Davexl]

Pretty ugly start to the week, down 75c/5% already.

Lets see what happens when the real trading starts at midday......

Don't forget later in the day when the Mainland China markets reopen since the holiday period, watch the impact on Aust then NZ later in the day
2 1/2 hours time around 2.30 pm (NZT)

Also, ASX trading today:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/volatile-day-expected-as-chinese-markets-return-20200203-p53x4q.html

[Davexl]

Don't forget later in the day when the Mainland China markets reopen since the holiday period, watch the impact on Aust then NZ later in the day
2 1/2 hours time around 2.30 pm (NZT)

Also, ASX trading today:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/volatile-day-expected-as-chinese-markets-return-20200203-p53x4q.html

Update :
China stock market opens with 9.1pc plunge


Don't know if this has any effect on ASX or not - hope not for holders.

[longy]

Onto some lighter (old) news?

https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2020/01/20/a2-milk-partners-with-South-Korea-s-Yuhan-pharmaceuticals-for-infant-formula-launch

[Sideshow Bob]

Onto some lighter (old) news?

https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2020/01/20/a2-milk-partners-with-South-Korea-s-Yuhan-pharmaceuticals-for-infant-formula-launch

Yuhan is A2's partner in South Korea - largest Korean-owned pharmaceutical company. Interesting story - started to give health to the locals when they were occupied by the Japanese back in about the 1920's. When the founder died, he gifted the company between a charity and the people of Korea. Regular winner of the most admired/respected company in Korea.

Anyway, was announced a little while ago. Interestingly I subscribe to a similar newsletter on nutraceuticals from the same company. Came out on that prior to their Dairy Reporter...….

[longy]

Yuhan is A2's partner in South Korea - largest Korean-owned pharmaceutical company. Interesting story - started to give health to the locals when they were occupied by the Japanese back in about the 1920's. When the founder died, he gifted the company between a charity and the people of Korea. Regular winner of the most admired/respected company in Korea.

Anyway, was announced a little while ago. Interestingly I subscribe to a similar newsletter on nutraceuticals from the same company. Came out on that prior to their Dairy Reporter...….

I think they signed the agreement back in 2018 so it took over a year for the launch.

[see weed]

I've decided I'm not going to read or comment on this forum for a week, I reckon I'll just let the Trolls/Downrampers and Gloom and Doom merchants have a party amongst themselves, I've still got a bit of money to do a bit of trading and have got more positive things to do including going to the Queen concert and buying a really good Telescope.
Just scored some 40 min ago for $14.40:t_up:.

[MauroNZ]

Just scored some 40 min ago for $14.40:t_up:.

Around that yesterday was my target buy but seen was going lower I lower my buy and didn't get there :(. Good on you mate.

[Beagle]

I've decided I'm not going to read or comment on this forum for a week, I reckon I'll just let the Trolls/Downrampers and Gloom and Doom merchants have a party amongst themselves, I've still got a bit of money to do a bit of trading and have got more positive things to do including going to the Queen concert and buying a really good Telescope.

I've only been into exile on a forced trip lol. I suppose Siberia is very peaceful when you choose to go there yourself ?

[RupertBear]

I've only been into exile on a forced trip lol. I suppose Siberia is very peaceful when you choose to go there yourself ?

i reckon Couta be peeping to see whats going on here every day he just not letting on :D

[King1212]

Crap.... brokers said sell now on ATM..because corona virus will hot the sales in China as well all exporters .....dairy, forestry..as well as our hospitality n tourism....NZ is really going be Taft year ahead...m

[bull....]

Australian research firm Select Equities today downgraded its recommendation on A2 Milk from 'hold' to 'sell', saying distribution channels were likely to be impacted by the coronavirus outbreak.
Select Equities lowered its revenue forecast for 2020 fiscal year by 3.3 per cent and 2021 by 3.7 per cent.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12306051

[tomm]

Australian research firm Select Equities today downgraded its recommendation on A2 Milk from 'hold' to 'sell', saying distribution channels were likely to be impacted by the coronavirus outbreak.
Select Equities lowered its revenue forecast for 2020 fiscal year by 3.3 per cent and 2021 by 3.7 per cent.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12306051
Everyone knew that .

[see weed]

Australian research firm Select Equities today downgraded its recommendation on A2 Milk from 'hold' to 'sell', saying distribution channels were likely to be impacted by the coronavirus outbreak.
Select Equities lowered its revenue forecast for 2020 fiscal year by 3.3 per cent and 2021 by 3.7 per cent.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12306051
If they have a sell, then I will put on a hold to a buy. Sounds like Select Equities have inside information from a2 milk company's board, and probably want to buy in at a lower price. So a 3.3% drop in revenue= about $50,000,000, so rev drops from approx. 1.6b to 1.55b a2 milk sp has fallen 10% in last 2 weeks. I think now is a good time to buy buy buy on the low low lows:D.

[jallison]

Everyone knew that .
i didnt
thanks for the info

[Leftfield]

If they have a sell, then I will put on a hold to a buy. Sounds like Select Equities have inside information from a2 milk company's board, and probably want to buy in at a lower price. So a 3.3% drop in revenue= about $50,000,000, so rev drops from approx. 1.6b to 1.55b a2 milk sp has fallen 10% in last 2 weeks. I think now is a good time to buy buy buy on the low low lows:D.

The reality is that should China's A2 sales be adversely effected then A2 can adjust its China marketing spend and can also bring forward expansion and diversification into other key Asian markets such as S Korea, Japan, Singapore etc. I expect more emphasis on USA as well. Still a long term hold IMHO. Business as usual.

[dobby41]

i didnt
thanks for the info

I do love the way some people seem to feel that they should speak for us all when they use the word 'everyone'.
I didn't know that either - obviously we aren't part of 'everyone'.
I wonder what group we are part of?

[BlackPeter]

I do love the way some people seem to feel that they should speak for us all when they use the word 'everyone'.
I didn't know that either - obviously we aren't part of 'everyone'.
I wonder what group we are part of?

Everyone else? :)

BTW - I must belong to this second group as well ...

[longy]

Everyone else? :)

BTW - I must belong to this second group as well ...

MeToo. I did not know that either.

[sb9]

Australian research firm Select Equities today downgraded its recommendation on A2 Milk from 'hold' to 'sell', saying distribution channels were likely to be impacted by the coronavirus outbreak.
Select Equities lowered its revenue forecast for 2020 fiscal year by 3.3 per cent and 2021 by 3.7 per cent.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12306051

Not as per CEO GB who was quoted in one of Aus media stating they haven't noticed any material affect in their China distribution channel.

Nice try Select, very selective.

[tomm]

You can start to buy NOW or trying your luck by down ramping, it will be a rocket very soon.

[longy]

According to ASB Bank chief economist Nick Tuffley said the drop had been signalled in futures prices and indicated the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. As it was expected that some knee-jerk reaction would take place. However, Chinese buyers remained active on the GDT platform and the prices for longer-dated contracts remained firm.

[Ggcc]

Looking good for a high start in the SP tomorrow. Currently nz share price will increase roughly 60 cents

[Oberon]

Looking good for a high start in the SP tomorrow. Currently nz share price will increase roughly 60 cents

That'd be a nice change of pace wouldn't it? We'll see how it goes after lunch in Oz. So far, so good ...

[44wishlists]

Hey folks, while we see a good rally for ATM share price over recent months, what about SML? Seems it's share price just going downward step by step. What will be the impact on ATM, or is it market implying for something? Thanks!!

Disc. Holding ATM, no longer SML.

[Ggcc]

Hey folks, while we see a good rally for ATM share price over recent months, what about SML? Seems it's share price just going downward step by step. What will be the impact on ATM, or is it market implying for something? Thanks!!

Disc. Holding ATM, no longer SML.
I have wondered at these prices whether ATM don’t increase their holding a tiny bit (within takeover ruling) or buy up large capital raise and take over SML entirely

[44wishlists]

I have wondered at these prices whether ATM don’t increase their holding a tiny bit (within takeover ruling) or buy up large capital raise and take over SML entirely

I don't think it's necessary for ATM to take over SML entirely, as they have already got enough shares to have the say in the boardroom. ATM can keep squeezing the margin from SML at the current status, as they are SML's biggest customer, and SML do need the business from ATM. Increasing their holding is subject to debate too, but as a small investor, SML SP do looks interesting, despite all those management issues and legal cases that opt to be sorted.

I just keep scratching my head that why it's share price is so weak, only reason that I could come up is the market is casting a vote of no confidence in their management. But despite these, not any major bad news to the whole dairy sector, as well as the latest dairy auction also didn't show any sign of weakness.

[winner69]

I have wondered at these prices whether ATM don’t increase their holding a tiny bit (within takeover ruling) or buy up large capital raise and take over SML entirely

I don’t think it’s a good idea for a marketing company with a high return on capital to buy a capital intensive (commodity) producer with lower returns.

[macduffy]

But there has been an impact on prices, according to this article, 44Wishlists.

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/dairy/hope-coronavirus-impact-dairy-will-be-short-lived

[winner69]

I just keep scratching my head that why it's SML share price is so weak, only reason that I could come up is the market is casting a vote of no confidence in their management. But despite these, not any major bad news to the whole dairy sector, as well as the latest dairy auction also didn't show any sign of weakness.

44wishlists - have you considered that the market is beginning to think that SML is still way overvalued. Look at its PE and PB ratios they still have even though are a capital intensive producer,

Just because $8.25 looks really cheap compared to highs of $13 odd doesn’t mean it’s cheap

Those outrageous high prices were totally irrational - probably driven by the milk mania

I see SML share price to weaken further.

[longy]

I think it may be something to do with with Pokeno factory.

[couta1]

Running hard on the ASX today, you cant keep a good thing down for too long, only 3 weeks till results day, bring it on.

[Baa_Baa]

Running hard on the ASX today, you cant keep a good thing down for too long, only 3 weeks till results day, bring it on.

Nice, A$14.90 close x 1.04 = NZ$15.50 or $0.87 up from yesterdays close $14.63 :)

[Ggcc]

Nice, A$14.90 close x 1.04 = NZ$15.50 or $0.87 up from yesterdays close $14.63 :)
Great start for now. I hope to see it reach $17 by the end of the month

[allfromacell]

*Waiting for Bull to tell us he was actually long* :D

[allfromacell]

I noticed Countdown in the AKL CBD wasn't bothering to stack stage 3 today, they just had a few boxes on the ground with one open. Chemist warehouse was almost completely out of stock, local demand must be very high right now hopefully it can make it's way to China quickly.

[44wishlists]

Thanks Winner and Macduffy. Looking at the closing prices of the duo on ASX, it does look the market think A2M is ready to for its next leg up. SP closing at the high of the session, and also above the 50 EMA. SP had spent 3 days below the rising trend-line but convincingly snapped back above it today. The RSI and stochastic have both turned back up again. Sourced from totoschillaci (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/chart-update.4208153/search/search?type=post&users=totoschillaci) in HC forum.

And as for SML.... I don't know.... but fewer hairs is left after more scratching... lol

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks Winner and Macduffy. Looking at the closing prices of the duo on ASX, it does look the market think A2M is ready to for its next leg up. SP closing at the high of the session, and also above the 50 EMA. SP had spent 3 days below the rising trend-line but convincingly snapped back above it today. The RSI and stochastic have both turned back up again.

And as for SML.... I don't know.... but fewer hairs is left after more scratching... lol

If you're going to plagiarise someone, from HC in this case, you could at least give them some attribution or link to their post.

[tomm]

What did I say yesterday ?? Buy NOW !!! it is flying.

[couta1]

oh no another threat to a2

Chinese patriotism is new sales octane as millennials embrace home-grown brands at the expense of foreign icons


Trade war, boycotts stir nationalistic fervour, drives sales of guo huo, or home-grown brands, against foreign icons

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3048428/chinese-patriotism-new-sales-octane-millennials-embrace Gotta call this bs downramoing post out for what it is.

[couta1]

A test of $14.10 looking far more likely than $17 now ! Your crystal ball is malfunctioning.

[bull....]

Gotta call this bs downramoing post out for what it is.

couta your being a troll posting a news link of what someone else says is not downramping , anyway i hope you enjoy your day.

heres some sobering fact for you to think about a2 is down 11% in the last 6 mths even if it jumps 4% today its still down overall. while plenty of other stocks are up so has it been a good investment last 6 mths?

[bull....]

*Waiting for Bull to tell us he was actually long* :D

a smart trader would be long now if you had a look at chart of a2 in aus on the 3 feb ( looking at hourly charts) it posted a lows around 13.80 which had a rsi of 20 ( rsi below 30 generally considered oversold) it also had a low around the same 13.80 area in 15 jan ( when stocks bounce of same areas of price it is considered support). traders buy and sell these flows in price. im not long or short though at the moment as my money was in other opps

[jallison]

Gotta call this bs downramoing post out for what it is.

As much as your posts are upramping

[couta1]

couta your being a troll posting a news link of what someone else says is not downramping , anyway i hope you enjoy your day.

heres some sobering fact for you to think about a2 is down 11% in the last 6 mths even if it jumps 4% today its still down overall. while plenty of other stocks are up so has it been a good investment last 6 mths? It's your intent and motivation that determines whether you are Trolling or not and hiding behind a news link doesn't make you less of one. PS-As you well know a good % of news articles contain mistruth and are not to be taken as gospel and whether it has been a good investment or not would be up to each individual to determine for themselves according to their entry price and/or trading success.

[couta1]

As much as your posts are upramping Excepting you won't find my downramping/negative posts all over the forum like said individual.

[bull....]

It's your intent and motivation that determines whether you are Trolling or not and hiding behind a news link doesn't make you less of one. PS-As you well know a good % of news articles contain mistruth and are not to be taken as gospel and whether it has been a good investment or not would be up to each individual to determine for themselves according to their entry price and/or trading success.

are you suggesting we should suppress all news on a2 or is that news first vetted by you. suppression of news is not very democratic

[see weed]

couta your being a troll posting a news link of what someone else says is not downramping , anyway i hope you enjoy your day.

heres some sobering fact for you to think about a2 is down 11% in the last 6 mths even if it jumps 4% today its still down overall. while plenty of other stocks are up so has it been a good investment last 6 mths?
Congratulations to couta1, myself and others who got in and bought more a2 shares in the last 13 weeks. The sp hit a low of 12.20 and 12.19 on the 6/11/19 and 7/11/19. I have bought 25 blocks of a2 shares since that date. The last block at 14.40 last Tuesday. Share price is up 19% in 13 weeks, which does not include any sp rise or fall today:D:t_up::cool::D.

[couta1]

are you suggesting we should suppress all news on a2 or is that news first vetted by you. suppression of news is not very democratic As I said it's all about the intent of your posts, I post on this thread because I really believe A2 is a great company with a great future and have an oversized holding.

[bull....]

Congratulations to couta1, myself and others who got in and bought more a2 shares in the last 13 weeks. The sp hit a low of 12.20 and 12.19 on the 6/11/19 and 7/11/19. I have bought 25 blocks of a2 shares since that date. The last block at 14.40 last Tuesday. Share price is up 19% in 13 weeks, which does not include any sp rise today:D:t_up::cool::D.


you have done well see weed but for many others who are long term holders the % are not as good as yours

[bull....]

As I said it's all about the intent of your posts, I post on this thread because I really believe A2 is a great company with a great future and have an oversized holding.

i post information as information is key to successful investing , what you do with the information is your decision. if you think my post influence the market you really are deluded

[tomm]

Excepting you won't find my downramping/negative posts all over the forum like said individual.
They are trying to find a way to get in by down ramping and find all nesssesary to down ramping, seems too late , most of us all got in at around $14-14.60. Still I wish them luck.

[see weed]

you have done well see weed but for many others who are long term holders the % are not as good as yours
Thank you. Those 25 blocks do not include my long term holdings purchased in the 50c, $7 and $9 blocks:).

[couta1]

i post information as information is key to successful investing , what you do with the information is your decision. if you think my post influence the market you really are deluded Your posts can influence weak hands during turbulent times and motivate those holders to sell when they would not otherwise have done so.

[bull....]

Your posts can influence weak hands during turbulent times and motivate those holders to sell when they would not otherwise have done so.

taking into account what you say would not your posts during very bullish upticks ? just saying considering your bullishness. So really the question is should all comment on everything be suppressed so as there was not any risk so ever in influencing anyone

[BlackPeter]

you have done well see weed but for many others who are long term holders the % are not as good as yours

Oh dear - you are full of it!

A2M went in less than 5 years from 56 cents ($A) to A$14.90, that's more than 90% return per year for doing nothing - just buy and hold. What a terrible investment for long term holders A2M has been ... though not sure I would consider 5 years already as "long term".

If you think that these long-term holders have not done well, than you are really hard to please ...

[mfd]

This would be a very dull forum if everyone agreed and only posted positive things. I hold, but happy to hear dissenting views.

[bull....]

Oh dear - you are full of it!

A2M went in less than 5 years from 56 cents ($A) to A$14.90, that's more than 90% return per year for doing nothing - just buy and hold. What a terrible investment for long term holders A2M has been ... though not sure I would consider 5 years already as "long term".

If you think that these long-term holders have not done well, than you are really hard to please ...

you missed it BP in the post we were talking about the last 6 mths not the last 6 years which obviously people holding from then are very well off.

[bull....]

This would be a very dull forum if everyone agreed and only posted positive things. I hold, but happy to hear dissenting views.

exactly if there was news out there that infant formula was halted at the docks in china due to labour shortages we better not post it as it was negative news. so everyone in there positive environment would be really mis informed on current news

[couta1]

taking into account what you say would not your posts during very bullish upticks ? just saying considering your bullishness. So really the question is should all comment on everything be suppressed so as there was not any risk so ever in influencing anyone The question readers must ask themselves at the end of the day is, who has been right about this stock over the last few years? then decide who you believe, nuff said from me for now, let the upcoming result do the talking.

[BlackPeter]

This would be a very dull forum if everyone agreed and only posted positive things. I hold, but happy to hear dissenting views.

Absolutely ... though there is a difference between posting positive and negative thoughts on one hand and machine-gunning negative headlines (including fake news) without any evidence for consideration and/or reflection.

I value any post as long as it provides new information and / or contains evidence for the poster reflecting on what they are posting.

I don't value the contributions of posters who just spread a black sludge over any thread unfortunately enough to be selected by them.

[couta1]

Absolutely ... though there is a difference between posting positive and negative thoughts on one hand and machine-gunning negative headlines (including fake news) without any evidence for consideration and/or reflection.

I value any post as long as it provides new information and / or contains evidence for the poster reflecting on what they are posting.

I don't value the contributions of posters who just spread a black sludge over any thread unfortunately enough to be selected by them. What a great post.

[bull....]

The question readers must ask themselves at the end of the day is, who has been right about this stock over the last few years? then decide who you believe, nuff said from me for now, let the upcoming result do the talking.

agree the results will do the talking esp the next lot mid year

[sb9]

agree the results will do the talking esp the next lot mid year

With respect, we've seen many times on this forum depending on your stock position being long or short, you do extensively feed the news. Some of it may be valid but most of them are just to serve your investment motive. That's the aspect people are not comfortable, by all means present a valid case with proof and source and people will appreciate be it positive or negative.

[davflaws]

Bull has been posting on a number of threads I follow for what seems like many years. Most of his posts are cautious or negative, but I don't believe his intentions are in any way dishonest, and he clearly doesn't believe that they influence the market to his benefit. I have seen him post positive and encouraging news, but not often.

Balance provides information he believes will warn other investors off stocks he believes are "bad news". Sometimes he seems to entrench himself in a negative mindset about a particular stock (check out the PEB thread).

People are different.

[couta1]

Up 5% but still down on AU closing equivalent of $15.52, kiwis being a bit conservative this morning for a change. Lol

[dr_]

When Bull start posting garbage its a best time to buy....:)

[bull....]

Bull has been posting on a number of threads I follow for what seems like many years. Most of his posts are cautious or negative, but I don't believe his intentions are in any way dishonest, and he clearly doesn't believe that they influence the market to his benefit. I have seen him post positive and encouraging news, but not often.

Balance provides information he believes will warn other investors off stocks he believes are "bad news". Sometimes he seems to entrench himself in a negative mindset about a particular stock (check out the PEB thread).

People are different.

have to disagree on mostly negative posts over the years

i was very positive yrs ago on thl , rbd , aia and some others most recently napier port holdings and the utilities. just because i dont post everyday positive news on them does not mean im not positive on stocks.

i have been very positive of markets overall over the years as my postings show on black monday.

on a2 i was both positive and negative when it used to trade between 50 - 60c and then i went very positive when it broke out of long term range. look at thread. now im negative and positive on a2 because its going sideways

[bull....]

When Bull start posting garbage its a best time to buy....:)

yes everyone thought my posts were garbage negative based posts on metro glass because i was the only one negative against all the very positive posts everyday. we all know what happened to metro glass

[couta1]

have to disagree on mostly negative posts over the years

i was very positive yrs ago on thl , rbd , aia and some others most recently napier port holdings and the utilities. just because i dont post everyday positive news on them does not mean im not positive on stocks.

i have been very positive of markets overall over the years as my postings show on black monday. The gent was paying you a compliment regarding your posting intentions which others of us wouldn't give you, you should have taken it as such and kept quiet

[bull....]

The gent was paying you a compliment regarding your posting intentions which others of us wouldn't give you, you should gave taken it as such and kept quiet

yes i think i just keep quiet on a2 for now

[see weed]

My turn to be negative. There's not many buy orders above 14.50 on asx at the moment. 14.50 aussi= approx 15.05 kiwi? I got a buy order in and want it to come down to 15.10. Come on Bull, help me out here.

[LAC]

When Bull start posting garbage its a best time to buy....:)

uuummm I dont know about that, if you look at the timings in Bulls posts which are negative and then look at those companies a few months down the line......you would be surprised how many times he is on the right side of the fence. Dont get me wrong, some of Bull's posts are Bull, but I have found value in some of them.

[Ted2]

you have done well see weed but for many others who are long term holders the % are not as good as yours

I'm a long-term holder and sitting at around 2600%. Best thing I've done in my life. Just a bought a new car with a bit of 'milk money'.

[Ted2]

Absolutely ... though there is a difference between posting positive and negative thoughts on one hand and machine-gunning negative headlines (including fake news) without any evidence for consideration and/or reflection.



I value any post as long as it provides new information and / or contains evidence for the poster reflecting on what they are posting.

I don't value the contributions of posters who just spread a black sludge over any thread unfortunately enough to be selected by them.

Hear hear! Free speech is one thing, and I'm not sure how the market would work if we all had the same views anyway, but trolling for the sake of it should be beneath this site. There are plenty of cautious or negative views posted by people like Balance, SB9, etc that usually have some balance and reasoning. These views are to be respected, but trolls who ramp (either way) just for the sake of getting their post numbers up should be avoided.

[dobby41]

but trolls who ramp (either way) just for the sake of getting their post numbers up should be avoided.

Did you have anyone in particular in mind?

[Leftfield]

you have done well see weed but for many others who are long term holders the % are not as good as yours


I'm a long-term holder and sitting at around 2600%. Best thing I've done in my life. Just a bought a new car with a bit of 'milk money'.

I seldom post on this thread these days as my ATM holding is now 'free hold' and my % returns are therefore exponential. In deciding not to post often I recognise that my risk profile (zero) is much different to someone buying in today's market.

While I value many posters on this thread, I find Bull's comments v biased and short term in thinking and so ignore them. However all opinions are to be encouraged and one day Bull may be proven right on ATM (though hopefully not while I hold!!)

GLH and DYOR.

[winner69]

Today’s A2 discussion reminds of what guru analyst Aswath Damodaran says - Values don't come from models, but from stories (good or bad).

[tomm]

@couta1 , you go hard mate , hahahah . They all knew they down ramping because they try to get in :))))))

[tomm]

@couta1 , you go hard mate , hahahah . They all knew but still they down ramping because they try to get in :))))))

[see weed]

There must be a lot of shappy hareholders out there tonight, have a good weekend :t_up:.

[dobby41]

There must be a lot of shappy hareholders out there tonight, have a good weekend :t_up:.

Very shappy.

[Leftfield]

Interesting article here (http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0210/c90000-9655942.html) in Chinese news re on-line shopping during the current coronavirus scare.

A2 'well positioned' IMHO.

[sb9]

Interesting article here (http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0210/c90000-9655942.html) in Chinese news re on-line shopping during the current coronavirus scare.

A2 'well positioned' IMHO.

Agree 100%, there are always some novel ways to move the stuff that's in demand.

Looks like we might finish in green for the day.

[alex f]

What is the exact date of the Interim Report?

[see weed]

What is the exact date of the Interim Report?
Half yearly report is on 27/2/20. ATM had a Strong finish tonight up 12c, but noticed a2m dropped away a bit (9c) after our NZX close. Am quite surprised with how ATM is holding its price with all the negative corona carry on. But do seem to notice lots of buyers coming in on last 15 min closing off time. Who are they? NZers or others? and what do they know? Imagine where sp would be without the corona effect.

[longy]

Re Daigou channel. Does any body knows which method were used to ship the product to China? How much were by post and via in person?

Onto another subject. The following link were from Stuff today. Not sure how much this has to with our A2 company. But I am sure my sister has bought A2 ice cream at least a couple years ago over in Sydney?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/119145170/appleby-farms-taking-a2-icecream-to-australia

[Southern_Belle]

Half yearly report is on 27/2/20. ATM had a Strong finish tonight up 12c, but noticed a2m dropped away a bit (9c) after our NZX close. Am quite surprised with how ATM is holding its price with all the negative corona carry on. But do seem to notice lots of buyers coming in on last 15 min closing off time. Who are they? NZers or others? and what do they know? Imagine where sp would be without the corona effect.yes it will be interesting on announcement day.

Results vs Forecast

[bull....]

dont know if any of you are aware blackmores in aus is in a trading halt they are going to make an announcement in regards to results and the outlook. the AFR is speculating they will say they have been affected by daioug trade due to travel restrictions on chinese in aus


Both Blackmores and its main rival Swisse told The Australian Financial Review last Thursday that coronavirus had led to a rise in demand in China in the past couple of weeks, but that the ban on Chinese tourists to Australia had caused a fall-off in the ''suitcase trade

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/coronavirus-fallout-hits-australian-companies-20200210-p53zfc

[see weed]

Re Daigou channel. Does any body knows which method were used to ship the product to China? How much were by post and via in person?

Onto another subject. The following link were from Stuff today. Not sure how much this has to with our A2 company. But I am sure my sister has bought A2 ice cream at least a couple years ago over in Sydney?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/119145170/appleby-farms-taking-a2-icecream-to-australia
Another point. If appleby farms has a2 written on their label, do they pay a royalty to the a2 milk company?

[t.rexjr]

dont know if any of you are aware blackmores in aus is in a trading halt they are going to make an announcement in regards to results and the outlook. the AFR is speculating they will say they have been affected by daioug trade due to travel restrictions on chinese in aus


Both Blackmores and its main rival Swisse told The Australian Financial Review last Thursday that coronavirus had led to a rise in demand in China in the past couple of weeks, but that the ban on Chinese tourists to Australia had caused a fall-off in the ''suitcase trade

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/coronavirus-fallout-hits-australian-companies-20200210-p53zfc

Not sure if you go to a trading halt for a guidance update??

[winner69]

Not sure if you go to a trading halt for a guidance update??

They previously told market first half profit after tax of ~$21 million. ....a decline of ~38% on the prior corresponding period.

Talk is that the trading halt is a a sign that it will be even lower now.

[longy]

Another point. If appleby farms has a2 written on their label, do they pay a royalty to the a2 milk company?

I thought they had a go at someone a few years back re A2 branding. But both parties settled out of court and we have not been told about its resolution I don't think.

Anyway I bought a tub of AppleBy ice cream stuff. Beside it is being creamier, it is not that memorable. But I don't have any major problems with milk products as long as in a small quantity. :)

[see weed]

I thought they had a go at someone a few years back re A2 branding. But both parties settled out of court and we have not been told about its resolution I don't think.

Anyway I bought a tub of AppleBy ice cream stuff. Beside it is being creamier, it is not that memorable. But I don't have any major problems with milk products as long as in a small quantity. :)
Did you notice if it had a2 written anywhere on the label.

[nizzy]

Another point. If appleby farms has a2 written on their label, do they pay a royalty to the a2 milk company?

No, A2 is just the name of the milk protein. Its not being used as the brand name, its just telling consumers the type of milk used.
Anyone using A2 milk can label as such if they want - but they just can't use A2 as the Brand. Appelby Farms is the brand used here.
ATM doesn't hold any rights over A2 cows and the milk they produce.

Which does raise longterm concern with sustainability of the A2 Brand as more and more players use A2 milk in their products and tell consumers this on their label.
How they got it trademarked in the first place is beyond me. But I take my hat off to them for managing this - and for running a switched on business. Just question whether longterm they can build a big enough moat around the brand.
Disc: hold ATM

[longy]

Yes. A small printed A2 protein... etc. I have to have a good look to find it.

[longy]

I think that was one of the reasons Jane wanted to dive it hard and fast on trying to gain market share.

[RGR367]

Looks getting closer and this would be a nice competitor for IF https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2020/02/03/Lab-grown-breast-milk-Singapore-s-TurtleTree-Labs-expects-to-launch-products-in-2021?utm_source=EditorsSpotlight&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2020-02-11&c=8JjInTRl6erwBFUKNUdJxDNBwzMrR5V%2F

[bull....]

Looks getting closer and this would be a nice competitor for IF https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2020/02/03/Lab-grown-breast-milk-Singapore-s-TurtleTree-Labs-expects-to-launch-products-in-2021?utm_source=EditorsSpotlight&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2020-02-11&c=8JjInTRl6erwBFUKNUdJxDNBwzMrR5V%2F


only matter of time before more and more artificial substitutes become competetitors


Jeremy Grantham warns eventually only the rich will procreate as chemicals leave the poor sterile
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/gmos-grantham-warns-only-the-rich-will-be-able-to-have-kids-due-to-chemical-toxicity.html

[Leftfield]

Looks getting closer and this would be a nice competitor for IF https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2020/02/03/Lab-grown-breast-milk-Singapore-s-TurtleTree-Labs-expects-to-launch-products-in-2021?utm_source=EditorsSpotlight&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2020-02-11&c=8JjInTRl6erwBFUKNUdJxDNBwzMrR5V%2F

Whoooooppy.....just what the market wants....mothers milk grown in a test tube..... most probably contains 'natural' melamine as an added benefit too! Great stuff!!

[BlackPeter]

Whoooooppy.....just what the market wants....mothers milk grown in a test tube..... most probably contains 'natural' melamine as an added benefit too! Great stuff!!

This is Singapore, not mainland China. Different country, different system and legislation, very different hygiene and food quality standards, no corruption.

But anyway not sure whether NZ would be in the best position in the finger pointing contest towards mainland China .... consumers in China might remember as well some of the NZ slips in this regard:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Fonterra_recall

and lets not forget - a big New Zealand company was deeply involved in the melanin scandal:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1294566/fonterra-has-clearly-forgotten-lesson-melamine-milk-scandal
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/3715/contaminated-milk-scandal-hurting-fonterra


What is the old saying "Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother's eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?"

This very plank could easily conceal our view on future business threats and opportunities.

Anyway - just practicing some "different thinking"

[couta1]

only matter of time before more and more artificial substitutes become competetitors


Jeremy Grantham warns eventually only the rich will procreate as chemicals leave the poor sterile


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/gmos-grantham-warns-only-the-rich-will-be-able-to-have-kids-due-to-chemical-toxicity.html Are you paid to find and post this kinda ****e.

[Snow Leopard]

Are you paid to find and post this kinda ****e.

First remove the plank from thy own eye.

[bull....]

Are you paid to find and post this kinda ****e.

i dont think your anywhere close to being in the same league as grantham therefore i would rather hear what he says than you. whether you believe it or not is your business.

[couta1]

First remove the plank from thy own eye. Bit rich coming from someone who's never wrong.

[Snow Leopard]

Bit rich coming from someone who's never wrong.

Two planks.

[bull....]

blackmores update out

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200212/pdf/44f0lk259lrjmd.pdf

saying logistics issues in china making it hard to get product out

[BlackPeter]

some useful information at last ...

this bit might be particularly relevant for ATM (and SML):

11008

[longy]

some useful information at last ...

this bit might be particularly relevant for ATM (and SML):

11008

May be, it probably affecting the whole range of anything coming in and out of China and near by countries. However, I would consider infant milk product is essential one for babies and I would buy more in time like this don't you think.

[bull....]

May be, it probably affecting the whole range of anything coming in and out of China and near by countries. However, I would consider infant milk product is essential one for babies and I would buy more in time like this don't you think.

blackmores did say demand was up for there vitamins cause of the virus , the trouble is getting the stock delivered to meet this demand

[BlackPeter]

May be, it probably affecting the whole range of anything coming in and out of China and near by countries. However, I would consider infant milk product is essential one for babies and I would buy more in time like this don't you think.

Is it essential? Mothers who stay at home due to quarantine could do as well the natural thing, couldn't they? Much cheaper and healthier - actually for both mother and baby.

As well
... if the daigou channels don't work, it does not really matter whether consumers want the product or not.

... if money is short, there are plenty of cheaper alternatives around ... and lets face it, while there are various grown ups (particular in Asian countries) who have problems digesting A1-milk, the same is hardly any issue for babies.

But I guess no point in speculating ... I am sure in due course it all will be revealed.

Discl: used to hold a small A2 parcel but sold out yesterday.

[sb9]

May be, it probably affecting the whole range of anything coming in and out of China and near by countries. However, I would consider infant milk product is essential one for babies and I would buy more in time like this don't you think.

That's the point, people may afford to postpone taking vitamin supplements for a while, however something like IF is very vital for babies and hence will find a way to reach them.

[hogie]

Is it essential? Mothers who stay at home due to quarantine could do as well do the natural thing, couldn't they? Much cheaper and healthier - actually for both mother and baby.

One of the reasons that milk powder is so popular in China is because a lot of women lack the ability to provide enough milk naturally partly because of their smaller physique, diet, and culture where as they must "stay thin at all costs".

I don't see ATM being affected much by Corona virus at all .. the only issues might be distribution channels will be strained, but the demand will continue.

[couta1]

One of the reasons that milk powder is so popular in China is because a lot of women lack the ability to provide enough milk naturally partly because of their smaller physique, diet, and culture where as they must "stay thin at all costs".

I don't see ATM being affected much by Corona virus at all .. the only issues might be distribution channels will be strained, but the demand will continue. Yep maybe a short term blip but medium to long term this things going to keep on rolling like any exceptional company.

[mondograss]

Is it essential? Mothers who stay at home due to quarantine could do as well the natural thing, couldn't they? Much cheaper and healthier - actually for both mother and baby.

As well
... if the daigou channels don't work, it does not really matter whether consumers want the product or not.

... if money is short, there are plenty of cheaper alternatives around ... and lets face it, while there are various grown ups (particular in Asian countries) who have problems digesting A1-milk, the same is hardly any issue for babies.

But I guess no point in speculating ... I am sure in due course it all will be revealed.

Discl: used to hold a small A2 parcel but sold out yesterday.

Except, once you switch to formula and don't breastfeed, your milk dries up and there's no going back. So except for new born babies any mother who's been using formula exclusively is pretty much stuck that way. That's not to say that they wouldn't switch to a locally made formula if that was all the choice there was. But, speaking from experience, a baby with bad colic\wind etc is a pretty awful experience for all concerned so if that can be avoided by using A2 formula I'd be pretty keen not to switch to something "inferior".

[BlackPeter]

But, speaking from experience, a baby with bad colic\wind etc is a pretty awful experience for all concerned so if that can be avoided by using A2 formula I'd be pretty keen not to switch to something "inferior".

Well, yes - however I must admit that I would put the "babies doing better with A2 formula" into the category marketing hype.

Would you be able to point to any studies showing that A2 babies have less issues with bad colic / wind than babies who are fed a different formula?

I do realize that the described problems might occur with breastfed babies, if the mothers eat the wrong food while breastfeeding, which then move into the milk, but this is a different story and has nothing to do with A2.

[sb9]

Very clear divergence from BKL affect...

[longy]

Well, yes - however I must admit that I would put the "babies doing better with A2 formula" into the category marketing hype.

Would you be able to point to any studies showing that A2 babies have less issues with bad colic / wind than babies who are fed a different formula?

I do realize that the described problems might occur with breastfed babies, if the mothers eat the wrong food while breastfeeding, which then move into the milk, but this is a different story and has nothing to do with A2.

Speaking from experience. You would feed the babies what ever it is as long as they sleep after each feed. I have three kids and they all have re-flux. We have tried natural breast feed and every brand out there in NZ including man-made formula (don't remember the name but required subscriptions from the Doc to get it). They all required Losec in conjunction with formula milk that worked. In another word once the parents have found a brand that works they will stick to it.

[BlackPeter]

Speaking from experience. You would feed the babies what ever it is as long as they sleep after each feed. I have three kids and they all have re-flux. We have tried natural breast feed and every brand out there in NZ including man-made formula (don't remember the name but required subscriptions from the Doc to get it). They all required Losec in conjunction with formula milk that worked. In another word once the parents have found a brand that works they will stick to it.

The question was - would A2 have made any difference?

[mondograss]

Well if the parents are A1 intolerant (I.e causes gas/wind/other intestinal discomfort) and if that has a genetic basis (which seems likely given the prevalence amongst the Asian population) then it would make sense that their babies experience the same symptoms with regular formula, and less so with A2. Isn’t that basically the entire basis of ATMs value proposition? Are you saying it’s all bunkum marketing hype and none of it means anything?

[BlackPeter]

Well if the parents are A1 intolerant (I.e causes gas/wind/other intestinal discomfort) and if that has a genetic basis (which seems likely given the prevalence amongst the Asian population) then it would make sense that their babies experience the same symptoms with regular formula, and less so with A2. Isn’t that basically the entire basis of ATMs value proposition? Are you saying it’s all bunkum marketing hype and none of it means anything?

I am saying that babies are in general much more milk tolerant than adults ... has something to do with survival of the fittest, and babies not able to digest milk would not have survived ...

[mondograss]

I am saying that babies are in general much more milk tolerant than adults ... has something to do with survival of the fittest, and babies not able to digest milk would not have survived ...

Nobody is saying that A1 intolerance isn't survivable, not particularly pleasant perhaps, but it's hardly going to have a darwinian impact.

[sb9]

The short squeeeeeeze is on now....:t_up:

[Leftfield]

Well if the parents are A1 intolerant (I.e causes gas/wind/other intestinal discomfort) and if that has a genetic basis (which seems likely given the prevalence amongst the Asian population) then it would make sense that their babies experience the same symptoms with regular formula, and less so with A2.
Isn’t that basically the entire basis of ATMs value proposition? ...

Well said mondograss, and the success of ATM is ample evidence that the A2 value proposition makes sense to a lot of customers (even if it doesn't make sense to Black Peter.)

Time to move on from this discussion (you can lead a horse (BlackPeter) to water... etc etc) and sit back and enjoy the SP gains today.

[couta1]

The short squeeeeeeze is on now....:t_up: Not sure about that one, perhaps just a happy day, whatever I'm enjoying taking a few coins off the table as we dont know what the evil of tomorrow or the next day brings.

[dobby41]

Well said mondograss, and the success of ATM is ample evidence that the A2 value proposition makes sense to a lot of customers (even if it doesn't make sense to Black Peter.)

Time to move on from this discussion (you can lead a horse (BlackPeter) to water... etc etc) and sit back and enjoy the SP gains today.

Keeps cycling around every now and then.

[Sideshow Bob]

Pulled from the Synlait update:


"while Synlait still anticipates growth in consumer-packaged infant formula sales volumes over the full year, this growth is not as strong as initially envisaged. The a2 Milk Company’s contributon to this growth has not changed"

[bull....]

Pulled from the Synlait update:


"while Synlait still anticipates growth in consumer-packaged infant formula sales volumes over the full year, this growth is not as strong as initially envisaged. The a2 Milk Company’s contributon to this growth has not changed"


not these results but the next ones are of more importance to me on there growth

[BlackPeter]

Pulled from the Synlait update:


"while Synlait still anticipates growth in consumer-packaged infant formula sales volumes over the full year, this growth is not as strong as initially envisaged. The a2 Milk Company’s contributon to this growth has not changed"

Doesn't seem to be fully consistent this Synlait update. I sort of struggled with the following sentence:


Current information now indicates this rate of growth will not be achieved. This is as a result of:
• significantly lower than anticipated infant base powder sales due to China infant nutrition market consolidation causing a reduction in demand from brand owners who are yet to receive brand registration;

Unclear to me whether they want to say that they don't have all Chinese registrations (otherwise, why would this be a reason for the downturn?) and secondly - why are they downgrading their earnings if everything is nice and fluffy with their biggest earner A2 Milk? Or - are they saying everything tumbled down and A2 Milk just kept pace in tumbling down with the other products they have?

Very confusing ...

As well, don't they say downgrades come in threes ... this is just number one :):

[BigBob]

A2 Milk pledges $3m to coronavirus research and relief

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/119472952/a2-milk-pledges-3m-to-coronavirus-research-and-relief

"We are continuing to monitor the development of coronavirus both in China and abroad and, to date, have not experienced material changes to our operations resulting from the situation."

[winner69]

A2 saw bulls post and put out an official announcement

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/348340/316606.pdf

[Leftfield]

Very confusing ...


Not according to A2......this just released

The a2 Milk Company notes the release this morning of an announcement from Synlait Milk Limited (Synlait NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) regarding its results for the half-year ended 31 January 2020 and its outlook for the second half of FY20.

The a2 Milk Company confirms that its business performance remains strong and it continues to be in compliance with its continuous disclosure obligations.

The a2 Milk Company intends to release its results for the half year ended 31 December 2019 on Thursday, 27 February 2020 and will make further comment on the business at that time.

[BlackPeter]

Not according to A2......this just released

The a2 Milk Company notes the release this morning of an announcement from Synlait Milk Limited (Synlait NZX: SML; ASX: SM1) regarding its results for the half-year ended 31 January 2020 and its outlook for the second half of FY20.

The a2 Milk Company confirms that its business performance remains strong and it continues to be in compliance with its continuous disclosure obligations.

The a2 Milk Company intends to release its results for the half year ended 31 December 2019 on Thursday, 27 February 2020 and will make further comment on the business at that time.

Exactly this is the confusing thing. How come Synlait feels an impact and A2 does not?

[longy]

Who are the others that Synlait supply milk to?

[BlackPeter]

Who are the others that Synlait supply milk to?

Good question. I guess volume wise they have lots of cheap plain vanilla milk powder in their stores and they will probably compete on the same market place as Fonterra and sell it to whoever wants it.

Ah yes - and then there is the PAM's fresh milk in the South Island and a bit of cheese. Can't really imagine though, that the margins for any of that are amazing.

Looking at it from a margin perspective - I think the only other big earner but A2 might be Interferon - which they probably sell to various pharmaceutical companies. Problem with that is that the price for Interferon is quite - well, lets say - temperamental. Some months the margin is amazing and in other months its nearly zero. Not a reliable earnings base.

[mondograss]

Who are the others that Synlait supply milk to?

Synlait supply the basic milk powder to other brands (infant base powder) that might need it, much like Fonterra, while also having their own brands (consumer packaged), some of which don't have all their registrations in place. This latter category also includes ATM. So basically the way I read it, is they've had a drop in sales for the infant base powder, and their house brands have also had a drop in sales, but ATM is continuing to truck along the way it always has (and appears to be increasingly propping up the business).

[Southern_Belle]

Exactly this is the confusing thing. How come Synlait feels an impact and A2 does not?A2 will be feeling the impact for sure. They have money in the bank that will enable them to have a buffer to manage risk.

Announcement $3 million in donations. Also mention of supporting their staff on the ground in China who have been asked to limit travel within the country and delay international travel.

[bull....]

A2 will be feeling the impact for sure. They have money in the bank that will enable them to have a buffer to manage risk.

Announcement $3 million in donations. Also mention of supporting their staff on the ground in China who have been asked to limit travel within the country and delay international travel.

a2 has failed to provide a statement on the virus impact.

[BigBob]

a2 has failed to provide a statement on the virus impact.

A bit back up the thread...:

A2 Milk pledges $3m to coronavirus research and relief

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/farmi...rch-and-relief

"We are continuing to monitor the development of coronavirus both in China and abroad and, to date, have not experienced material changes to our operations resulting from the situation."

Combine that with today's NZX release and I think you'll conclude that they so no material impact to date....

[bull....]

A bit back up the thread...:

A2 Milk pledges $3m to coronavirus research and relief

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/farmi...rch-and-relief

"We are continuing to monitor the development of coronavirus both in China and abroad and, to date, have not experienced material changes to our operations resulting from the situation."

Combine that with today's NZX release and I think you'll conclude that they so no material impact to date....

cheers bigbob so not yet but still maybe and who knows about sums it up

[Southern_Belle]

a2 has failed to provide a statement on the virus impact.Have said they will make further commentary after results presented on the 27th of Feb. .... a bit of the old keeping calm & carry on (I bet they paddling furiously underwater). Until then speculation & volitility.

Hard to fathom that the disruption has 'No material effect of operations' as indicated today. Just wait & watch I guess

[couta1]

Nothing changed for A2 re the SML downgrade excepting their shareholding is now worth less.

[Sideshow Bob]

Nothing changed for A2 re the SML downgrade excepting their shareholding is now worth less.

Shareholding worth less on paper, but worth gold in terms of supply and blocking stake.

[Beagle]

Pretty sure dramatically increasing the stake in SML at vastly higher than the current market price was another one of Herdlicka's "brilliant" decisions.

[Leftfield]

Pretty sure dramatically increasing the stake in SML at vastly higher than the current market price was another one of Herdlicka's "brilliant" decisions.

Respect your posts Beagle, but my recollection differs. IMHO the bulk of A2's purchase of SML was under GB's reign at an average SP well below today???
JH's purchase about 8% and not exactly dramatic.

Not that it matters who did what. I've Just been checking Hot Copper and note Citi Group has apparently upgraded their A2 recommendation from 'Sell to Buy' with SP price target of $A17.45

In addition this post by Truthfulworld updates us on today's conference call by SML

"Just finished listening to Synlait conference call. Not much new info except to say they were very reassuring around continuing growth in a2 sales with comments as follows:

A2 strong growth continuing and not changed from expectations

very excited about a2 and continuing to tract well

see a2 continuing to grow market share as further reduction in players and market consolidates

Seems Synlait is now reliant on a2 if it wasn’t already!"

[bull....]

a2 tanking now china just reported 242 deaths today a massive jump. a2 is now the way to play daily death updates each day

[couta1]

a2 tanking now china just reported 242 deaths today a massive jump. a2 is now the way to play daily death updates each day Buy the reaction not the news.

[bull....]

Buy the reaction not the news.

if we get 300 deaths tomorrow a2 will be under $15 so is how a2 will playout now as a barometer of daily deaths. obviously becuase if it gets worse there is no way a2 will not be impacted

[couta1]

if we get 300 deaths tomorrow a2 will be under $15 so is how a2 will playout now as a barometer of daily deaths. obviously becuase if it gets worse there is no way a2 will not be impacted With the result not far away and no concrete known effect on anything A2 any dips will be short lived.

[bull....]

With the result not far away and no concrete known effect on anything A2 any dips will be short lived.

i really hope so because that means the virus is going away. anyway i think the bounce if there is one on results will be short lived esp if the virus is getting worse as investors will look forward

[Ted2]

if we get 300 deaths tomorrow a2 will be under $15 so is how a2 will playout now as a barometer of daily deaths. obviously becuase if it gets worse there is no way a2 will not be impacted

A little bit of Bull balancer...................

If we only get 100 deaths tomorrow a2 will be over $16..........

[allfromacell]

I see Citi upgraded due to the Coronvirus.

From HC

"Citi has decided it's time for a double-whammy upgrade; to Buy from Sell. The move is explained by the fact Citi analysts now see upside to forecasts for H2 on the back of the coronavirus outbreak. They note their ebitda forecast for FY20 sits 17% above market consensus presently.Evidence, albeit anecdotal, that consumers have begun stockpiling essential items, including infant formula, underpins Citi's positive view. While this essentially pulls forward future sales, the analysts are not deterred and anticipate positive impact short-term."

I've haven't found stage 3 anywhere and notice all other stages are almost sold at at Countdown and Chemist warehouse in the CBD. Lots of demand and A2's multi-channels should help getting stock into China. I've also noticed the Facebook likes are growing rapidly on the USA page, everything looking rosy for A2 milk.

[couta1]

With the result not far away and no concrete known effect on anything A2 any dips will be short lived. As I was saying and we may get another dip tomorrow with your garden variety friday profit takers having a play as they often do.

[longy]

Looks like consultant fees at the infant formula company A2 are likely to be cut but its marketing spend will remain despite concerns over the impact of the deadly coronavirus gripping the region. That is a whole 20Mil.

[longy]

This guy Sam seemed to have the same view that IF is an essential food.

Citi analyst Sam Teeger on Thursday upgraded his call on a2 Milk to 'buy' as he sees upside to the company's first half-sales and margins due to consumers stockpiling baby formula in China as concerns rise over essential items being available.

I just posted what have I read people. Please DYOR.

[bull....]

blackmores said the same about short term demand for there products because of stockpiling , where i disagree with tthese analysts is that it doesnt mean more demand over a longer period. you dont feed your baby more than necessary . more stock piling less buying in the future.

[tomm]

The shorters are up again , trying to get the Sp down as much as they can until 27/Feb.

[tomm]

The shorters are up again ,have been trying to get the Sp down as much as they can until 27/Feb.

[couta1]

This guy Sam seemed to have the same view that IF is an essential food.

Citi analyst Sam Teeger on Thursday upgraded his call on a2 Milk to 'buy' as he sees upside to the company's first half-sales and margins due to consumers stockpiling baby formula in China as concerns rise over essential items being available.

I just posted what have I read people. Please DYOR. I wouldn't trust Teeger or Citi full stop, just notorious game players for their own purposes, they will slap a sell on it once they have scalped the market as they have done before, rinse and repeat.PS-Thankfully we can make our own independent decisions aside from these clowns.

[couta1]

Lol someone's keen to sell 150k plus shares at $15.97, not something to do on the NZX.

[tomm]

Lol someone's keen to sell 150k plus shares at $15.97, not something to do on the NZX.
and 179K at $15.28 AUD on ASX hahahaah , they are trying to push the price down
Signals for BUY NOW......

[couta1]

and 179K at $15.28 AUD on ASX hahahaah , they are trying to push the price down
Signals for BUY NOW...... Yep cap the price on a good buying volume day then hover up on the next dip day.

[Dotbond]

Lol someone's keen to sell 150k plus shares at $15.97, not something to do on the NZX.
Where do you find that information regarding individual sell ?

[Leftfield]

Prof Woodward on Coronavirus effects FYI. A Black Swan event? See it here. (https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2020/02/15/covid-19-is-a-black-swan/#more-2132)

[Leftfield]

Nice day for holders..... (just saying) Come over to ATM and leave all the HLG gloom behind. ;)

[couta1]

Nice day for holders..... (just saying) Come over to ATM and leave all the HLG gloom behind. ;) Haha no gloom for me with either as they are the only listed stocks I hold and both are just lovely.:cool: PS-Have been furiously dispatching milk bottles today as I never like to take a gift horse for granted.

[winner69]

ATM could go back over $17 this week.

Gone days of it breaking below $14.06

[Sideshow Bob]

Nice day for holders..... (just saying) Come over to ATM and leave all the HLG gloom behind. ;)

Lots of milky goodness today. Not far away from the first post-Jayne update......

[BlackPeter]

Clearly less exciting than the next ATM results, but I thought I include ATM / A2M in my wee analysis about the goodness of the forecasts of our stockmarket analysts.

Here is the overview of all forecasts checked so far (yes, this is still early days):
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11721-How-good-are-the-forecasts-of-stockmarket-analysts


Stock: A2M (sorry, I use the Australian variant in my spreadsheet - ie.e all data in A$)
Prediction month: January 2019
Forecast month: January 2020



Share price (peak) in January 2019
A$12.65



Consensus forecast for January 2020
$12.40



actual shareprice (peak) in January 2020
$15.59
Share price did rise 25,7% above target, while analysts predicted the shareprice would flat line. I call that a failed forecast


consensus recommendation in January 2019
outperform (7,5/10)



actual 12 month growth vs NZX50
ATM underperformed NZX50 by 7.5%
PREDICTION FAIL



Rating of the analysts so far:

7 stocks checked (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/7; analyst hitrate: 14%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 2/7; analyst hitrate: 28%

[tomm]

Nice with "YOUR PREDICTION"
I wish you luck. :)

[BlackPeter]

Nice with "YOUR PREDICTION"
I wish you luck. :)

I think you need to read the main thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts). I don't predict anything with this post. I just checked the predictions the stockmarket analysts made in Januar 2019 about A2M - and (in this and in various other cases) the proved to be woefully wrong.

But anyway - always nice to have somebody wishing you (I hope good) luck. Cheers mate ...

[Baa_Baa]

Who are the 'analysts' that you're citing? Is it a range of NZ/AUS broker or fund analysts and/or some unknown internet analysts?

TIA.

[tomm]

I think you need to read the main thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts). I don't predict anything with this post. I just checked the predictions the stockmarket analysts made in Januar 2019 about A2M - and (in this and in various other cases) the proved to be woefully wrong.

But anyway - always nice to have somebody wishing you (I hope good) luck. Cheers mate ...

Thanks for putting that up anyway. I am not sure to whom but to me , these are just bell and whistles.

[BlackPeter]

Who are the 'analysts' that you're citing? Is it a range of NZ/AUS broker or fund analysts and/or some unknown internet analysts?

TIA.

Absolutely. I use exactly the same analyst "consensus" numbers as Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal or marketwatch. Otherwise it wouldn't be "consensus" wouldn't it?

[Leftfield]

Haha no gloom for me ......:cool: PS-Have been furiously dispatching milk bottles today as I never like to take a gift horse for granted.

LOL - Seems to me your furious trading is the kind that could see annual brokerage fees about the same size as my total portfolio!! Tho' no Harm in taking some profits while you can.




.....ATM underperformed NZX50 by 7.5%



That's the part that surprised me...... ATM clearly slipped last year.

Although a comparison over the last 5 years puts ATM about 3,000% above the NZX.

11035

Will it ATM do better than the NZX 50 this year? Going to be interesting. Law of averages says yes.

As always DYOR.

[tomm]

Rinse and repeat :))))))
shake, shake the tree :)))

[couta1]

Rinse and repeat :))))))
shake, shake the tree :))) Not really, just lack of buy volume unlike yesterday, but I'm buying. Lol

[tomm]

Not really, just lack of buy volume unlike yesterday, but I'm buying. Lol
I bet it will end today at $16.15 , setting up for $17+

[couta1]

I bet it will end today at $16.15 , setting up for $17+ I'd rather it didnt run too hard before the result, rather buy the news than sell it.

[tomm]

I'd rather it didnt run too hard before the result, rather buy the news than sell it.
They don't make life that easy for us do they :)))

[couta1]

They don't make life that easy for us do they :))) Unless your of the buy and hold and dont touch variety, but that's not a job.

[Oberon]

I'm quite content with it drifting around this level pre-results. I didn't think we'd have another big today. Only other variable are shorts who might be looking to make an exit before results - whether a short squeeze is realistic, I dunno. Shorts increased on the back of coronavirus news but - given what we're hearing about demand for IF in China during this crisis and Geoff's assurance of BAU, taking a punt against A2 looks to have been a premature gamble.

Very tempting to unload yesterday and circle around waiting for a cheaper set up, but seems too much of a gamble this close to results.

[jallison]

I bet it will end today at $16.15 , setting up for $17+

excitable fello