ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[tomm]

excitable fello
Yes, I am glad and exciting to invest early in a great company. I am exciting every time when near the half year/ yearly profit announcement. I am excited to see my shares is going up year by year. :)

[tomm]

I'm quite content with it drifting around this level pre-results. I didn't think we'd have another big today. Only other variable are shorts who might be looking to make an exit before results - whether a short squeeze is realistic, I dunno. Shorts increased on the back of coronavirus news but - given what we're hearing about demand for IF in China during this crisis and Geoff's assurance of BAU, taking a punt against A2 looks to have been a premature gamble.

Very tempting to unload yesterday and circle around waiting for a cheaper set up, but seems too much of a gamble this close to results.
Yes, with this stock and the shorters are trying to suck the blood out of it you may get an entry again before results but it is depending on how you are, otherwise you will have to wait after the result.

[couta1]

Buyers arriving later in the day to drive the price up on the ASX.

[tomm]

Buyers arriving later in the day to drive the price up on the ASX.
Showing a strong bullish current up till the result.

[44wishlists]

The SP action is looking very similar prior to the result announcement August last year. Hope to be wrong.

Disc: ATM Holder, but took some profits off of the table today.

[Baa_Baa]

The SP action is looking very similar prior to the result announcement August last year. Hope to be wrong.

Disc: ATM Holder, but took some profits off of the table today.

Yes looking more and more like buy the hype and sell the news. ATM runs hard into announcement, soothing words of no effect on supply chain, but … any slip, even a tiny mention or evidence of slowing growth and …

[Southern_Belle]

This likely to impact daigou channels

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12309715

[tomm]

This likely to impact daigou channels

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12309715
Totally has nothing to do with online shopping within china.

[BlackPeter]

Totally has nothing to do with online shopping within china.

Maybe you need to check the meaning of Daigou channel, find out where the supply of online purchased Daigou goods come from ... and afterwards try to research which percentage of A2 sales go through this channel :):

Closing down of mail (after stopping already any passenger traffic) will shut the channel off. How do you think small traders will now get their goods into China?

[Cadalac123]

Institutional buying to substantial at the dip wow how surprising

[couta1]

Institutional buying to substantial at the dip wow how surprising Probably to lend out to shorters knowing these game players.

[TobyPascoe92]

What is peoples thoughts or predictions on dividends and when it will happen ... ?

[BlackPeter]

What is peoples thoughts or predictions on dividends and when it will happen ... ?

Analysts predict a wee dividend starting in 2021. But then - they seem to be more often wrong than right :):

But seriously - as long as they keep growing - who would worry about the dividend ...?

[Leftfield]

What is peoples thoughts or predictions on dividends and when it will happen ... ?

It could boost their SP, but I am not counting on it. Still best to chase growth IMHO.

I would rather see some comment about progress in other Asian countries (S.Korea, Japan, Singapore etc) to diversify away from over reliance on China. The update on USA is also crucial.

[tomm]

Maybe you need to check the meaning of Daigou channel, find out where the supply of online purchased Daigou goods come from ... and afterwards try to research which percentage of A2 sales go through this channel :):

Closing down of mail (after stopping already any passenger traffic) will shut the channel off. How do you think small traders will now get their goods into China?
Just the Post Office, we are talking about milk , bulk , people don't use Post Office. They use by sea , and others freight companies.

[tomm]

‘Sam Teeger has raised Citi’s price target on a2 Milk (ASX: A2M) from $12.30 to $14.85 per share – and upgraded the rating on the stock from sell to neutral.’
That alone marked a large reversal in views for the broker. Last week though, Citi took this reversal one step further: upgrading their rating on a2 Milk to buy from neutral and slapping the IMF stock with a bullish price target of $17.45 per share.
All up, in percentage terms that’s a 41% upward revision.
A2 MILK SHARE PRICE: THE CITI TAKE

The thrust of this newly minted upgrade though is probably the most interesting part of all this; with Citi analysts contending that the Coronavirus may actually have a positive impact on A2M’s second-half FY20 margins.
Citi had previously held a sell recommendation on the stock based on the thesis that A2M could not sustain its high margins in the face of growing competitive realities.
Returning to the current view, while the broker does indeed acknowledge that public health concerns surrounding the Coronavirus have impacted foot traffic around physical storefronts, Citi suggests that this may be offset by a 'surge in online orders'
As the broker further points out as part of its buy thesis: ‘household stockpiling could result in stronger than expected sales and consumers increasingly staying at home may reduce the need for 2H20 trade and outdoor marketing activities,’ and ‘travel restrictions could help the company reduce its travel expenses.’
Quantifying the impact this would have on the company’s underlying fundamentals, Citi increased their FY20 second half sales estimates by 14% and is currently projecting that A2’s earnings margins will come in at 31% (in H1) and 32% (in FY20).

[BlackPeter]

Just the Post Office, we are talking about milk , bulk , people don't use Post Office. They use by sea , and others freight companies.

You still didn't check what the for A2 all important Daigou channel is, didn't you?

Start here:

https://www.nzte.govt.nz/export-assistance/selling-online-overseas/making-sense-of-the-daigou-channel

You will find nothing related to "bulk" in this description. The Daigou channel describes many small (and typically inofficial) traders sending their stuff either per mail or asking travelers to take a couple of cans with them. Both of these transport options are now closed.

Looks like we have a problem, don't we?

[tomm]

You still didn't check what the for A2 all important Daigou channel is, didn't you?

Start here:

https://www.nzte.govt.nz/export-assistance/selling-online-overseas/making-sense-of-the-daigou-channel

You will find nothing related to "bulk" in this description. The Daigou channel describes many small (and typically inofficial) traders sending their stuff either per mail or asking travelers to take a couple of cans with them. Both of these transport options are now closed.

Looks like we have a problem, don't we?
There is nothing mentioning about Daigou must use Post Office for courier ! or you can see a word POST OFFICE in that article.! They use another platform for courier and using others freight companies ( bulk or small).

[longy]

You still didn't check what the for A2 all important Daigou channel is, didn't you?

Start here:

https://www.nzte.govt.nz/export-assistance/selling-online-overseas/making-sense-of-the-daigou-channel

You will find nothing related to "bulk" in this description. The Daigou channel describes many small (and typically inofficial) traders sending their stuff either per mail or asking travelers to take a couple of cans with them. Both of these transport options are now closed.

Looks like we have a problem, don't we?

Do we know of what % is A2 sells via Daigo? Some had tried to squeeze that out of Jane but she never reviewed it as I could recall! If I have to read between the lines... Don't think A2 has relying on Daigo as much as before... hence the large amount of expenditure were spent in marketing right?

[dreamcatcher]

NZ sends all IF ONLY from BONDED STORES ............ NZ Post will not accept

"Q: Will people in New Zealand be able to post infant formula to their relatives overseas?

A: No. If someone buys infant formula from a supermarket and posts it from New Zealand without following the regulations for exporting dairy products then they are operating unlawfully and outside the regulated export supply chain. This has always been the case under the APA. The law has not changed.

Under New Zealand law, any infant formula that is sent to anyone in China needs an Export Certificate (also commonly called a Health Certificate). MPI issues such Export Certificates. To receive an Export Certificate from MPI, the infant formula must meet MPI requirements for export to China and the infant formula must stay with an MPI approved Risk Management Programme (RMP) holder continually from the farm up to export. If infant formula leaves the RMP chain it is no longer eligible for export and MPI cannot issue an Export Certificate.

These rules apply to all dairy materials and products."

[BlackPeter]

There is nothing mentioning about Daigou must use Post Office for courier ! or you can see a word POST OFFICE in that article.! They use another platform for courier and using others freight companies ( bulk or small).

No, but they talk about "postal services" ...

But hey, you are correct - there still might be some courier companies prepared to accept parcels for China, though I suspect that they will have the same problems as NZ Post has - no planes going to China, no capacity to deliver air fright. Easy as that.

Time will tell ...

[BlackPeter]

Do we know of what % is A2 sells via Daigo? Some had tried to squeeze that out of Jane but she never reviewed it as I could recall! If I have to read between the lines... Don't think A2 has relying on Daigo as much as before... hence the large amount of expenditure were spent in marketing right?

Good question. From memory it used to be a very high number - I remember something like more than 50% of what they sold in Australia and New Zealand went this way.

It clearly was still 7 months ago a big number: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/consumer/new-zealands-a2-milk-flags-higher-marketing-spend-as-daigou-sales-dry-up

This was seen as a problem, given that many Australian and NZ consumers could not get the product because Daigou emptied the shelves as soon as they have been refilled.

However - not so easy to replace Daigou - here is a quite interesting analysis of the trade and example for a company (Bellamy) trying to reduce their Daigou dependency and falling onto their face:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-31/chinese-daigou-changing-influencing-australian-business/11221498

Not sure, how successful ATM have been over the last 6 months or so in "combating" the Daigou trade. We probably need to wait for their next report to see whether they just burned money or whether the strategy has worked.

[black knat]

Update from Ausnutria today (HK listed Chinese manufacturer and importer of IF from Europe, Aust and NZ) - https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/ausnutria/announcement/a200219.pdf

Of relevance to ATM....

Despite there are a number of confirmed infected cases in Changsha city, Hunan province, where the Group’s headquarter in the People’s Republic of China (the “PRC”) is located, the Group’s operations in the PRC have resumed after the Lunar New Year holiday and have not experienced any material disruptions. As at the date of this announcement, the Board is not aware of any material adverse impact to the Group’ financial or trading position caused by the Epidemic.

[tomm]

I am asking 74 peoples whom put a block of 177K+ shares at $16.00 AUD ( IS this all you can do ) hahahah

[see weed]

I am asking 74 peoples whom put a block of 177K+ shares at $16.00 AUD ( IS this all you can do ) hahahah
Wow, a lot can happen in one week. Go to hospital for new hip, come out and sp up over $1:). Don't worry about the $16 people. They will come and go in no time with this little rocket:t_up:.ps There might be a couple of big sellers holding it at $16 so they can buy more at lower price, and then flood gates open to $16.20;).

[tomm]

Wow, a lot can happen in one week. Go to hospital for new hip, come out and sp up over $2:). Don't worry about the $16 people. They will come and go in no time with this little rocket:t_up:.ps There might be a couple of big sellers holding it at $16 so they can buy more at lower price, and then flood gates open to $16.20;).
welcome back mate.

[Leftfield]

Wow, a lot can happen in one week. Go to hospital for new hip, come out and sp up over $2:). .....

Maybe you should get the other hip done and help to drive ATM up another $2 to $18.00!! :t_up:

Welcome back and wishing you a speedy recovery. Health is wealth.

[percy]

Maybe you should get the other hip done and help to drive ATM up another $2 to $18.00!! :t_up:

Welcome back and wishing you a speedy recovery. Health is wealth.

My thoughts too.

[see weed]

Maybe you should get the other hip done and help to drive ATM up another $2 to $18.00!! :t_up:

Welcome back and wishing you a speedy recovery. Health is wealth.
I was thinking the same, but a2 doesn't need me to get another new hip to go up another couple of dollars;). Thanks everyone, but a2 only went up $1 while I was away, not $2.It went up $2 over 2 weeks. Am very happy all my holdings are in the green at the moment:).

[couta1]

Down day or two incoming. PS-Good to see you back and well see weed

[MauroNZ]

Wow, a lot can happen in one week. Go to hospital for new hip, come out and sp up over $1:). Don't worry about the $16 people. They will come and go in no time with this little rocket:t_up:.ps There might be a couple of big sellers holding it at $16 so they can buy more at lower price, and then flood gates open to $16.20;).


Have a good recovery!.

[tomm]

Down day or two incoming. PS-Good to see you back and well see weed
If it is stable today, it probably will hit 18+ . Then $15.60 is history.

[silu]

Wow, a lot can happen in one week. Go to hospital for new hip, come out and sp up over $1:). Don't worry about the $16 people. They will come and go in no time with this little rocket:t_up:.ps There might be a couple of big sellers holding it at $16 so they can buy more at lower price, and then flood gates open to $16.20;).

Congrats on the new hip. Getting mine done early April. Wondering what life means being pain free again? Anyway, go ATM!

[Leftfield]

South China Morning Post article provides a useful update on the Chinese IF market FYI. See it here. (https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3051808/foreign-brands-still-dominate-parents-do-not-trust-chinas-home)

[Sideshow Bob]

Is it Thursday yet?

[bull....]

Is it Thursday yet?

cant wait its going to be big , the move that is

[couta1]

cant wait its going to be big , the move that is Certainly is, upward that is, buy the news this time which I like.

[Muppett]

cant wait its going to be big , the move that is

In which direction?

[bull....]

In which direction?

cant say would be inappropriate might upset bulls and bears but there are somethings you should have worked out which will be in the report. place your bets people

[couta1]

In which direction? That would be down for Mr Gloom and Doom. Lol

[bull....]

That would be down for Mr Gloom and Doom. Lol

i suppose couta loaded to the gills

[couta1]

i suppose couta loaded to the gills Yep and loading more right now on the kiwis over negative start for the day.

[Baa_Baa]

If your largest customer stops work, closes cities and borders, confines 10’s of millions citizens to their homes … for week’s, and you survive that unscathed, it’d be a bloody commercial miracle more stunning than discovering a cure for the virus!!!

Let’s not forget though that the reporting is for the period prior to the virus disruptions, so should be good - minus CEO severance pay, but even the slightest teeniest sniff of forward caution or concern and it’ll be shorters heaven again.

[couta1]

If your largest customer stops work, closes cities and borders, confines 10’s of millions citizens to their homes … for week’s, and you survive that unscathed, it’d be a bloody commercial miracle more stunning than discovering a cure for the virus!!!

Let’s not forget though that the reporting is for the period prior to the virus disruptions, so should be good - minus CEO severance pay, but even the slightest teeniest sniff of forward caution or concern and it’ll be shorters heaven again. You not currently holding Baa? PS-Whatever happens its go big or go home for me and stay the course regardless what the game players do.

[winner69]

You not currently holding Baa?

Can’t be if he believed what he said.

[Baa_Baa]

You not currently holding Baa?

No I’m not, disclosed my exit recently, don’t want any exposure to China trade. Put the money elsewhere and substantially better off for it so far. I’ll be back into ATM when the dust settles even if I pay more than my exit, but given this SP tendency to volatility, my chart should indicate when to buy. Patience is a b1tch. Prudence not my strong suit, but this time … we’ll see.

[bull....]

If your largest customer stops work, closes cities and borders, confines 10’s of millions citizens to their homes … for week’s, and you survive that unscathed, it’d be a bloody commercial miracle more stunning than discovering a cure for the virus!!!

Let’s not forget though that the reporting is for the period prior to the virus disruptions, so should be good - minus CEO severance pay, but even the slightest teeniest sniff of forward caution or concern and it’ll be shorters heaven again.

dead right its not this report which matters its the next one and thats what will drive pricing

[couta1]

dead right its not this report which matters its the next one and thats what will drive pricing But you dont know how much downside is already priced in for this fantastic growth company, should be $17 right now.

[bull....]

But you dont know how much downside is already priced in for this fantastic growth company.

bit like asking me do i know how long the virus will last or full impact of it. anyway im not a gambler i trade price action. so up or down on announcement and ill trade it

[jallison]

Yes, I am glad and exciting to invest early in a great company. I am exciting every time when near the half year/ yearly profit announcement. I am excited to see my shares is going up year by year. :)

SP not +18 nor +17 has youy excitingment waned yet; stock probably has a good future but there is a biblical proverb ( blessed are the meek for they shall inherit the earth)
PS
The use of an English dictionary may also further your personal development.

[causecelebre]

SP not +18 nor +17 has youy excitingment waned yet; stock probably has a good future but there is a biblical proverb ( blessed are the meek for they shall inherit the earth)
PS
The use of an English dictionary may also further your personal development.

I would argue that Tomm is very exciting around announcement time. It's a joy to watch. Perhaps English isn't his/her first language and celebrating such excitement, rather than grammatical quirks, should be embraced rather than spurned. You never know: It may even further your personal development. Just saying....

[Sideshow Bob]

SP not +18 nor +17 has youy excitingment waned yet; stock probably has a good future but there is a biblical proverb ( blessed are the meek for they shall inherit the earth)
PS
The use of an English dictionary may also further your personal development.


Stuff or Facebook comments will have you slitting your wrists!! Most seem to be written by a dyslexic person, with English as their 4th language.

[Oberon]

Stuff or Facebook comments will have you slitting your wrists!! Most seem to be written by a dyslexic person, with English as their 4th language.


Indeed. My loose theory is that those of us who have participated online for a while - say the late 90's /early 2000's - are much more likely to put a modicum of effort into what we broadcast and adhere to things like grammar & punctuation.

Does that make me a boomer?

Anyhoo... not reading too much into today's trading. Looks pretty miserable across the board.

[tomm]

Strong resistant at $15.75 nzd , BUY NOW or it will fly again :)

[BlackPeter]

Strong resistant at $15.75 nzd , BUY NOW or it will fly again :)

I guess in this case we better don't buy ... I suppose you want it to fly, don't you?

[couta1]

Great news, Susan M is staying with company but in a new role, she probably didnt like calamity Jayne.

[winner69]

This is awesome news ...Susan is back n board

Susan is what made our Geoffrey look so fantastic ...reading between lines Jayne didn’t appreciate her

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/348857/317328.pdf

[longy]

Is that the same Susan has left and now back this time into a new role but pretty much same responsibility?

[Leftfield]

This is awesome news ...Susan is back n board

Susan is what made our Geoffrey look so fantastic ...reading between lines Jayne didn’t appreciate her

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/348857/317328.pdf

Agree...... great news to see this continuity of such a key person who was leaving under CEO Jane's reign.

[winner69]

Is that the same Susan has left and now back this time into a new role but pretty much same responsibility?

A much broader role with greater accountability I reckon

Susan is what made A2 what it is today ...she now most powerful person in the organisation....even more power than our Geoffrey

[Bjauck]

Stuff or Facebook comments will have you slitting your wrists!! Most seem to be written by a dyslexic person, with English as their 4th language.

You learn to interpret Native speaker English too.

[tomm]

I guess in this case we better don't buy ... I suppose you want it to fly, don't you?
Hahahah , what I want has nothing to do with the stock , but just the broader market is down approx 2+% .

[see weed]

Congrats on the new hip. Getting mine done early April. Wondering what life means being pain free again? Anyway, go ATM!
Thanks Tomm, Left Field, Beagle, Percy, Couta1, MauroNZ and silu. I tell you what, they can do magic on hip replacements now. Walking with crutches the next day, and now walking crutchless only 10 days later. The old 30cm vertical cut up the leg is now just a small 15cm cut slightly across the front of hip. Magic man, or woman, just like a2 results in a few days time.

[sb9]

Jayne drove her away, GB is bringing the A team back...

The a2 Milk Company Limited wishes to announce that Susan Massasso has been appointed to the newly created role of Chief Growth and Brand Officer. The Company announced in November 2019 that Ms Massasso would resign as Chief Marketing Officer and we are pleased she will be remaining with the Company in such an important and expanded role.

[bull....]

shame she couldnt crack the UK market

[couta1]

shame she couldnt crack the UK market Who cares, it was a s**** market anyway.

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks Tomm, Left Field, Beagle, Percy, Couta1, MauroNZ and silu. I tell you what, they can do magic on hip replacements now. Walking with crutches the next day, and now walking crutchless only 10 days later. The old 30cm vertical cut up the leg is now just a small 15cm cut slightly across the front of hip. Magic man, or woman, just like a2 results in a few days time.

Good luck with the recovery Seeweed. A2, full of calcium, good for strong bones! :p

[see weed]

Strong resistant at $15.75 nzd , BUY NOW or it will fly again :)
Yes, it will fly again, we are still up over $1.30 in the last 13 days:t_up:. Just going through a little Corona blip, it will pass.

[dreamcatcher]

China's latest infection NEW cases 11..................

[see weed]

Good luck with the recovery Seeweed. A2, full of calcium, good for strong bones! :p
Thanks, I have more steel in right leg than bone. had a knee replacement 15 years ago. Anyway enough of orthopedics. Lets get back to a2 and the next uptrend, or are we still in the old one that's about 3 months old:).

[Oberon]

Great that Susan is sticking around in an expanded role - all but confirms she had packed her bags because of Herdlicka.


Yes, it will fly again, we are still up over $1.30 in the last 13 days:t_up:. Just going through a little Corona blip, it will pass.Indeed. Nothing like a bit of FUD to shake out some short-sighted weak hands. Great opportunity to scoop up a few more shares before Thursday.

[Mr Slothbear]

Susan Massasso in an expanded role is the best news in a very very long time.

almost sounds like it could be testing the waters for CEO material.

Substantial win and probably a lot of hard work and sweet talk from GB

[couta1]

Lol I'm loving this fear, this is the time to be greedy.

[tomm]

Lol I'm loving this fear, this is the time to be greedy.
hahahaah, very cool dude you are indeed .

[bull....]

hammertime , market doesnt like this announcement hammertime

[couta1]

hammertime , market doesnt like this announcement hammertime Lord give us patience and quickly.

[tomm]

Lord give us patience and quickly.
Truth indeed .

[dr_]

I am laughing on the hammertime !!! . Best time to buy when bull is here.....

[tomm]

Well well , just yesterday , the cats were discussing about which language I speak due to I believe that A2M's SP will fly again .
Where are you all now poeziess catsss ?? lol

[Sideshow Bob]

Well well , just yesterday , the cats were discussing about which language I speak due to I believe that A2M's SP will fly again .
Where are you all now poeziess catsss ?? lol

Is the word already out on the street for Thursday??

[tomm]

Is the word already out on the street for Thursday??
No, all the cats will go into hiding until then ,lol.

[jallison]

Well well , just yesterday , the cats were discussing about which language I speak due to I believe that A2M's SP will fly again .
Where are you all now poeziess catsss ?? lol

What, Now you are really talking mumbo jungo

[jallison]

What, Now you are really talking mumbo jungo

Sorry you have even got me talking gibberish Mumbo jumbo

[tomm]

Yes,if you insist and think so as I have just make lots of money from A2M hahaahha

[couta1]

Stock is smoking for an ugly day, what a trading range, cant wait for Thurs, feels like Christmas and birthday suspense all rolled into one.

[tomm]

Stock is smoking for an ugly day, what a trading range, cant wait for Thurs, feels like Christmas and birthday suspense all rolled into one.
But wait until you open your presents lol .

[cymonger]

Way to hold the line Tomm and Couta! This stock just continually gives you that "be greedy when others are fearful" gift. Picked up a huge lot at 15 today. I for one really appreciate you guys in the wake of all this negative **** on here. I hope any new reader would ask themselves, "why would anyone spend so much time on a message board bashing a stock they don't even own?" It's an absurd way to spend one's precious time.

[dr_]

I hope any new reader would ask themselves, "why would anyone spend so much time on a message board bashing a stock they don't even own?" It's an absurd way to spend one's precious time.

I have posted few times here when one poster constant basing here its a great time to buy in :mellow:. I'm a very long term holder with quite a big volumes and A2 is my 84% of portfolio with 553% up :t_up:. I have ridden a big wave since $2.

Shorters will come up with all sort of nonsense.

[tomm]

Way to hold the line Tomm and Couta! This stock just continually gives you that "be greedy when others are fearful" gift. Picked up a huge lot at 15 today. I for one really appreciate you guys in the wake of all this negative **** on here. I hope any new reader would ask themselves, "why would anyone spend so much time on a message board bashing a stock they don't even own?" It's an absurd way to spend one's precious time.
I follow closely the impact and it was just the scare shaking opportunities of the Big Boys (media, tv..) , they will find any reasons to shake the tree.I look at the company's portfolio, strategies and the cash flow instead.

[tomm]

I have posted few times here when one poster constant basing here its a great time to buy in :mellow:. I'm a very long term holder with quite a big volumes and A2 is my 84% of portfolio with 553% up :t_up:. I have ridden a big wave since $2.

Shorters will come up with all sort of nonsense.
Great to hear and good on you mate !

[couta1]

I have posted few times here when one poster constant basing here its a great time to buy in :mellow:. I'm a very long term holder with quite a big volumes and A2 is my 84% of portfolio with 553% up :t_up:. I have ridden a big wave since $2.

Shorters will come up with all sort of nonsense. Yep when the bull turns up like a rash on this and many other threads spreading negativity and gloom and doom its time to get your money out, best buy indicator going. PS-Well done you on your success.

[couta1]

Way to hold the line Tomm and Couta! This stock just continually gives you that "be greedy when others are fearful" gift. Picked up a huge lot at 15 today. I for one really appreciate you guys in the wake of all this negative **** on here. I hope any new reader would ask themselves, "why would anyone spend so much time on a message board bashing a stock they don't even own?" It's an absurd way to spend one's precious time. Excellent buying at $15, I'm feeling good for you. PS-My current avg is about $16 but I had to keep back a good amount so I can keep buying HLG.

[Oberon]

I watched the opening this morning; I had no intention of giving up my position before results so thought "stuff it" and stayed away from the laptop and noise for the day. Have been quite productive and got on to a few things lingering on my to-do list.

Just checked back in and... what a lovely surprise. Moral of the story - sometimes you need to step away and just let the market do it's thing. That, or A2 performs much better when I'm not staring at intra-day charts. Well done to everyone who scooped up bargain prices while they were going.

[see weed]

I watched the opening this morning; I had no intention of giving up my position before results so thought "stuff it" and stayed away from the laptop and noise for the day. Have been quite productive and got on to a few things lingering on my to-do list.

Just checked back in and... what a lovely surprise. Moral of the story - sometimes you need to step away and just let the market do it's thing. That, or A2 performs much better when I'm not staring at intra-day charts. Well done to everyone who scooped up bargain prices while they were going.
Yes, likewise. Owning shares in a2 is like been married to a party girl. She let her hair down again today and really showed her colours. Best thing to do is let her go and party, she will come back in her own good time:eek2::D:eek2:.

[bull....]

the big ranges intraday on a2 has been truely juicy last few days for sure and looking forward to it continuing.

[tomm]

Yes, likewise. Owning shares in a2 is like been married to a party girl. She let her hair down again today and really showed her colours. Best thing to do is let her go and party, she will come back in her own good time:eek2::D:eek2:.
hahahah , you made my day mate

[bull....]

hope everyone is ready for massive day tomorrow up or down

[Bjauck]

Yes, likewise. Owning shares in a2 is like been married to a party girl. She let her hair down again today and really showed her colours. Best thing to do is let her go and party, she will come back in her own good time:eek2::D:eek2:. HaHa. Being an ATM shareholder is like being married to man who goes down to the local pub for a drink with his mates then comes back stinking of booze and is hungover for the next day.

[trader_jackson]

With this cornoavirus going around, I am extremely surprised ATM hasn't been hit harder

[couta1]

With this cornoavirus going around, I am extremely surprised ATM hasn't been hit harder Why with a fantastic result coming up tomorrow and after all it's a consumer staple.

[Oberon]

Here we go again ...

[couta1]

Here we go again ... Yep these non holders have got nothing better to do with their time than scout threads and populate them with downramping/negative/trolling posts.

[longy]

Here we go again ...

The volume is so small, only 23k shares traded and the SP dropped 4.7%. Really???

[Muppett]

Why with a fantastic result coming up tomorrow and after all it's a consumer staple.

I am hoping for a good result tomorrow.

But on what basis are you expecting a fantastic result tomorrow?
Hope, analysis or insider info?

[Oberon]

The volume is so small, only 23k shares traded and the SP dropped 4.7%. Really???

4 shares sold @ $15.16 ... Looks like the bots are at play helping knock the price down. Easier to do on low volume.

[see weed]

HaHa. Being an ATM shareholder is like being married to man who goes down to the local pub for a drink with his mates then comes back stinking of booze and is hungover for the next day.
Exactly right you are. And that is why a2 and I get on like a house on fire. Never a dull moment with all the ups and downs of a happy relationship. Been with her going on 6 years and getting to know her mood swings very well.;)

[longy]

Exactly right you are. And that is why a2 and I get on like a house on fire. Never a dull moment with all the ups and downs of a happy relationship. Been with her going on 5 years and getting to know her mood swings very well.;)

I have divorced her a few times but something about her taste... that I have to get back on in.

[bull....]

be so quiet on here tomorrow if things dont go well

[longy]

I am hoping for a good result tomorrow.

But on what basis are you expecting a fantastic result tomorrow?
Hope, analysis or insider info?

For me is hope + analysis = I don't know for sure till the report comes so hope it is a good one. IMHO, the out break is near the end of the quarter. According the management A2 is tracking along fine from the last report. I also think people would have stock pile already in case disruption causes the the Covid19. Hence I think the report this time around should be sound. Furthermore, till the management update us with its future outlook...One could only guess.

[couta1]

I am hoping for a good result tomorrow.

But on what basis are you expecting a fantastic result tomorrow?
Hope, analysis or insider info? A bit of a mix actually, gut feel/sales analysis and my trust in Geoff to put out a surprise or two such as a maiden divvy or a share buy back.PS-No insider info sadly.

[sb9]

A bit of a mix actually, gut feel/sales analysis and my trust in Geoff to put out a surprise or two such as a maiden divvy or a share buy back.PS-No insider info sadly.

1H numbers will be a boomer, no questions about that. I guess its outlooks statement that''' be the key and knowing GB's style he would drop in few words of caution just enough for market to second guess.

And what Board decides to do with that ever growing pile of cash (may be around $700ml+ now) would be what drives the sentiment tomorrow. I much prefer buy back around current levels, that'll be prudent use in my books.

[couta1]

1H numbers will be a boomer, no questions about that. I guess its outlooks statement that''' be the key and knowing GB's style he would drop in few words of caution just enough for market to second guess.

And what Board decides to do with that ever growing pile of cash (may be around $700ml+ now) would be what drives the sentiment tomorrow. I much prefer buy back around current levels, that'll be prudent use in my books. I'm not sure GB will throw much caution in around this virus knowing the effect that would have on the sp, I'm expecting more along the lines that there has been very little disruption and they are confident the supply lines can be maintained.

[Oberon]

Add into the mix that it appears the virus peaked in China late Jan-early Feb. So, they might be in a position to resume business as usual relatively soon as other areas of the world start grappling with their own outbreaks. Let's also bear in mind A2 is not reliant on anything coming out of China - we just need to get the product in.

[sb9]

I'm not sure GB will throw much caution in around this virus knowing the effect that would have on the sp, I'm expecting more along the lines that there has been very little disruption and they are confident the supply lines can be maintained.

Sure, knowing GB's style his motto would be to under promise and over deliver. Not long to go to know that.

[longy]

Sure, knowing GB's style his motto would be to under promise and over deliver. Not long to go to know that.

I have borrowed this from Keytone's update.

"Chinese consumption of staple food products, including dairy, is reported to have increased substantially due to the Coronavirus crisis, including those sourced from New Zealand and Australian dairy"

[sb9]

I have borrowed this from Keytone's update.

"Chinese consumption of staple food products, including dairy, is reported to have increased substantially due to the Coronavirus crisis, including those sourced from New Zealand and Australian dairy"

Thanks for the snippet from Keytone, that bodes very well for A2 then.

If the outlook commentary is around similar tone, just watch it run hard for a while. May even go past $20 in the medium term....

[bull....]

Feihe is the future not A2

[sb9]

Wish we have a ignore button for certain posters on this forum ;)

[couta1]

Feihe is the future not A2 Stooping to new lows there bull, why am I not surprised.

[tomm]

Yes, likewise. Owning shares in a2 is like been married to a party girl. She let her hair down again today and really showed her colours. Best thing to do is let her go and party, she will come back in her own good time:eek2::D:eek2:.


HaHa. Being an ATM shareholder is like being married to man who goes down to the local pub for a drink with his mates then comes back stinking of booze and is hungover for the next day.
Holding the ATM shares was just like when I was a teenager , got a girl from the pub for a night then wakeup in the morning and totally couldn't recognized her without makeup on, OMG... then went to the bathroom and swearing to myself... hahahaha

[longy]

Thanks for the snippet from Keytone, that bodes very well for A2 then.

If the outlook commentary is around similar tone, just watch it run hard for a while. May even go past $20 in the medium term....

I think like the majority of the trade/businesses at the moment. We should be ignore the fact that some disruption will occur and hopefully just a short one. I am hopeful that the outbreak has peaked in China.

[couta1]

Wish we have a ignore button for certain posters on this forum ;) A Troll ejection button would be good like on the Graham Norton show with that armchair.

[bull....]

Stooping to new lows there bull, why am I not surprised.

the party has spoken feihe is the future even geoff admitted feihe is on the rise

[sb9]

I think like the majority of the trade/businesses at the moment. We should be ignore the fact that some disruption will occur and hopefully just a short one. I am hopeful that the outbreak has peaked in China.

Similar comment along Keytone also came from BUB in their results commentary today...get your straps on folks, its gonna be fun ride tomorrow.

[tomm]

Yes, likewise. Owning shares in a2 is like been married to a party girl. She let her hair down again today and really showed her colours. Best thing to do is let her go and party, she will come back in her own good time:eek2::D:eek2:.


A Troll ejection button would be good like on the Graham Norton show with that armchair.
No worries, the birds will stop tweeting from tomorrow .

[Ted2]

be so quiet on here tomorrow if things dont go well

I'm sure you'll make up for it..............:)

[BlackPeter]

...
Let's also bear in mind A2 is not reliant on anything coming out of China - we just need to get the product in.

I don't think that this is a safe assumption. Milk formula contains much more than "just milk" - and part of these "add ons" are various complex sugars (like e.g. synthesized milk sugar) as well as vitamins and other stuff considered to be healthy. From memory - Synlaits A2 Infant formula is made to roughly 2/3 out of milk and the rest is made from other stuff.

China is a major supplier of vitamins to the world market, and related to the healthy sugars ... actually - I do know the owner of a chemical factory in China producing them (out of starch) ... and I know as well that he is selling into the South Island. Would not be surprised if his product goes (as well) to Synlait (and with that to A2).

[tomm]

I don't think that this is a safe assumption. Milk formula contains much more than "just milk" - and part of these "add ons" are various complex sugars (like e.g. synthesized milk sugar) as well as vitamins and other stuff considered to be healthy. From memory - Synlaits A2 Infant formula is made to roughly 2/3 out of milk and the rest is made from other stuff.

China is a major supplier of vitamins to the world market, and related to the healthy sugars ... actually - I do know the owner of a chemical factory in China producing them (out of starch) ... and I know as well that he is selling into the South Island. Would not be surprised if his product goes (as well) to Synlait (and with that to A2).
Thanks for the info's but we don't buy into ASSUMPTIONS.

[bull....]

I don't think that this is a safe assumption. Milk formula contains much more than "just milk" - and part of these "add ons" are various complex sugars (like e.g. synthesized milk sugar) as well as vitamins and other stuff considered to be healthy. From memory - Synlaits A2 Infant formula is made to roughly 2/3 out of milk and the rest is made from other stuff.

China is a major supplier of vitamins to the world market, and related to the healthy sugars ... actually - I do know the owner of a chemical factory in China producing them (out of starch) ... and I know as well that he is selling into the South Island. Would not be surprised if his product goes (as well) to Synlait (and with that to A2).

rather risky of you BP even mentioning anything on here. esp if they disagree . the mob will lynch you lol

[Ted2]

Thanks for the info's but we don't buy into ASSUMPTIONS.

And all your comments are facts?? :)

[Oberon]

rather risky of you BP even mentioning anything on here. esp if they disagree . the mob will lynch you lol

Hardly. I think BlackPeter made a fair enough point. My thought processes were confined to the final product.

[bull....]

Hardly. I think BlackPeter made a fair enough point. My thought processes were confined to the final product.

Are they having any issues getting the product out?

[BlackPeter]

Are they having any issues getting the product out?

Good question ... didn't catch up with him since the virus scare. They do have another factory in Taiwan, i.e. might have as well some flexibility what to send from where.

I guess my main point was that A2 is very well dependent on ingredients from overseas suppliers.

Guess as well it won't stop here. Wondering whether the tins and the paper bags and the plastic lids are made in NZ. The odds are they are not.

[peat]

Wish we have a ignore button for certain posters on this forum ;)

your wish was granted a long time ago.

[tomm]

Points of particular interest, firstly: "Chinese consumption of staple food products, including dairy, is reported to have increased substantially due to the Coronavirus crisis, including those sourced from New Zealand and Australian dairy."

Secondly: "As to the impact of the Coronavirus on the Keytone business, Keytone’s Chief Executive Officer, Danny Rotman commented: “Whilst we are carefully monitoring the Coronavirus outbreak in China and we hope that the health crisis abates quickly, at present it has had an immaterial impact on the Keytone business.”

"Rather, we have seen a noticeable increase in demand for immunity boosting nutritional products, particularly those bound for China, and we are in a unique position to respond to these changing customer demands through our experienced in-house product development team. We look forward to further updating the market on our new immunity style product development efforts in response to Coronavirus in the near term."

Not our company, of course. But, there's little reason to think tomorrow's update won't read along similar lines.

[Leftfield]

From the HC site, a BUB's trading update posted by Arms

NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) IMPACT
Whilst it is too early to quantify any future impact, to date Bubs Australia has seen no diminution of
demand and minimal disruption to the business due to the Coronavirus outbreak. The Company has
monitored its operations and the market closely, and makes the following observations:
• Infant formula is perceived as an essential pantry item as it is a key food source for babies. As a
trusted premium international brand with transparent supply chain visibility, Bubs® is well placed to
appease Chinese parents’ heightened focus on food security and their children’s health and immunity.

Looking forward to the ATM update tomorrow.

[couta1]

From the HC site, a BUB's trading update posted by Arms

NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) IMPACT
Whilst it is too early to quantify any future impact, to date Bubs Australia has seen no diminution of
demand and minimal disruption to the business due to the Coronavirus outbreak. The Company has
monitored its operations and the market closely, and makes the following observations:
• Infant formula is perceived as an essential pantry item as it is a key food source for babies. As a
trusted premium international brand with transparent supply chain visibility, Bubs® is well placed to
appease Chinese parents’ heightened focus on food security and their children’s health and immunity.

Looking forward to the ATM update tomorrow. Nice one Lf although I hope the market will respond more enthusiastically than they did with the excellent Bubs result, it finished down 2.8%.

[Leftfield]

Nice one Lf although I hope the market will respond more enthusiastically than they did with the excellent Bubs result, it finished down 2.8%.

lol. Thanks Couta. FWIW, the day to day fluctuations in ATM are of less interest to me.... my investing is all about long term capital gains and for that reason the Bub's update is more relevant.

I tend to post much less these days as my ATM holding is all free held and my risk level is much lower than other posters.

Best wishes to all for tomorrow.

[Mr Slothbear]

lol. Thanks Couta. FWIW, the day to day fluctuations in ATM are of less interest to me.... my investing is all about long term capital gains and for that reason the Bub's update is more relevant.

I tend to post much less these days as my ATM holding is all free held and my risk level is much lower than other posters.

Best wishes to all for tomorrow.

I don’t see how free hold is any different to any other kind of holding. Its all the same opportunity cost.

[longy]

Nice one Lf although I hope the market will respond more enthusiastically than they did with the excellent Bubs result, it finished down 2.8%.

A2 as a company is well ahead compare to Bubs. A2 is making loads of $$$ where Bubs is still in loss making exercise at the moment. Has potential and point of difference. But till they able to control costs. I afraid its SP won't be going anywhere fast.

[longy]

What on earth is Morgan Stanley up to? Ceasing to have substantial holding 18th and then back substantial holding the 21st where the Sp were about the same then. Since 21st the Sp has fallen off!

[Leftfield]

I don’t see how free hold is any different to any other kind of holding. Its all the same opportunity cost.

Mmmm? Real costs are measured in financial accounts.....opportunity costs are not.

Besides my sleepometer tells me I'm much better off with freeheld shares!

[winner69]

Half 1 Ebitda will come in as expected

Full year guidance is the important thing

If it doesn’t look like full year ebitda going to be over $520m than there could be fireworks ...a signal growth is slowing quite significantly.

If it’s because they’ve thrown Jaynes strategy away even worse news

[bull....]

Half 1 Ebitda will come in as expected

Full year guidance is the important thing

If it doesn’t look like full year ebitda going to be over $520m than there could be fireworks ...a signal growth is slowing quite significantly.

If it’s because they’ve thrown Jaynes strategy away even worse news

but they downgraded 2nd half ebitda and wont give guidance for full year due to virus which is understandable

[winner69]

What does this mean -

Due to the increasing scale of our infant nutrition business, the Board considers it is now appropriate to assess participation in manufacturing capacity and capability to complement our existing supply chain relationships. Accordingly, we are presently evaluating opportunities to address this issue.

[bull....]

What does this mean -

Due to the increasing scale of our infant nutrition business, the Board considers it is now appropriate to assess participation in manufacturing capacity and capability to complement our existing supply chain relationships. Accordingly, we are presently evaluating opportunities to address this issue.

looks like they going to be spending some serious money soon on manufacturing. looks like revenue is a miss but ebitda for half good but the downgrade for the second half is a worry . would mean revenue could be lighter as well esp if virus disruption gets worse

[winner69]

but they downgraded 2nd half ebitda and wont give guidance for full year due to virus which is understandable

Jeez a downgrade ...don’t like sound of that bull...

Must look through the announcement carefully

[bull....]

Jeez a downgrade ...don’t like sound of that bull...

Must look through the announcement carefully

pe of 40 too might have to rein in the growth forecasts going ahead to account for virus and manufacturing spending too come. overall i like there plans but have always thought it a bit richly priced by the market.

[trader_jackson]

With this cornoavirus going around, I am extremely surprised ATM hasn't been hit harder

Was no surprise to me to see a downgrade and no forecast given (= not good at all)... just bizarre how the market, who priced ATM to perfection right now, seemed to not think ATM would be impacted much (with the share price hardly down recently)

[Ggcc]

What does this mean -

Due to the increasing scale of our infant nutrition business, the Board considers it is now appropriate to assess participation in manufacturing capacity and capability to complement our existing supply chain relationships. Accordingly, we are presently evaluating opportunities to address this issue.
Does this have something to do with SML reaching their full capacity within a few years?

[Ggcc]

Coronavirus or not this looks promising



Given the essential nature of our products for many Chinese families, demand is strong, particularly through online and reseller channels, with revenue for the first two months of 2H20 above expectations.

[NZSilver]

Generating plenty of cash and growing strongly off a large base. On a PE of 32. Corona might knock them around in the next 12 months. Long-term very positive. Good US traction too

[dr_]

Well Aussies know Bull very well....on HC

"Kiwi down rampers out in force over here;c'mon you aussies,lets get the SP heading in the right direction today...up,up and away...
I think 'Bull' is their Leon !!"
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Corporation-Limited/page1060"

[couta1]

A very good and pleasing result, just a shame about the Trolls.

[Oberon]

looks like they going to be spending some serious money soon on manufacturing. looks like revenue is a miss but ebitda for half good but the downgrade for the second half is a worry . would mean revenue could be lighter as well esp if virus disruption gets worse

Investor's update -- late 2019: "'For 1H20, we anticipate revenue in the range of $780 million to $800 million with growth demonstrating strong performance against strategy. EBITDA margin % in 1H20 is expected to be in the range of 31-32%.'"

Today's Interim report: "Revenue -- $806.7 million."

So, just to clarify - not a miss. Unless exceeding expectations qualifies as a miss.

[Balance]

A very good and pleasing result, just a shame about the Trolls.

Treat as an opportunity to buy more cheap stocks then, couta1.

Just as the shorters provided a lot of cheap stock in the last 6 months.

[bull....]

Investor's update -- late 2019: "'For 1H20, we anticipate revenue in the range of $780 million to $800 million with growth demonstrating strong performance against strategy. EBITDA margin % in 1H20 is expected to be in the range of 31-32%.'"

Today's Interim report: "Revenue -- $806.7 million."

So, just to clarify - not a miss. Unless exceeding expectations qualifies as a miss.

see the trolls are out in force led by there leader couta .

i didnt say they missed ist half ebitda read it properly they downgraded second half ebitda

[see weed]

It all sounds pretty good to me. As for the Corona virus, that is across the board for a lot of companies. Looking forward to meeting "bull" at the next sharetrader or shareholder meeting:).

[Leftfield]

What does this mean -
Due to the increasing scale of our infant nutrition business, the Board considers it is now appropriate to assess participation in manufacturing capacity and capability to complement our existing supply chain relationships. Accordingly, we are presently evaluating opportunities to address this issue.

Great result.....I'm a happy long term holder. USA going great!!

Suspect that with SML and some USA/Aust/NZ producers available at discounted/distressed prices this is a good exercise.

A2 might stick to strategic stakes rather than full acquisitions. However I much prefer their capital light strategy.

[Gerald]

Thoughts on the results from a serious investor with a $1000 holding in a2:

Revenue looks solid. Profit is abit concerning (can anyone tell me why A2 tends to grow revenue in more in h1 and profit more in h2)?

Assuming professional service fees are consulting (20m)? Marketing expenses seem high compared to the same period for 2019, however still lower then H2 2019. Possible GB clamped down on both these?

Balance sheet looks as juicy as ever. Imo wasn't expecting any announcement on the 600m in the piggy bank, doubt we will hear anything untill we get a new CEO.

USA - Growth is good but would be good to see a reduction in the losses.

Won't be buying anymore at the present unless we get a nice big dip, but PE of around 30 isn't excessive at all. Can't see the SP going crazy anytime soon though.

[couta1]

see the trolls are out in force led by there leader couta .

i didnt say they missed ist half ebitda read it properly they downgraded second half ebitda Haha your such a joke, we are genuine holders not bridge dwellers.

[bull....]

Haha your such a joke, we are genuine holders not bridge dwellers.

i told you i trade the intraday price now its a traders dream and i dont hold long term anymore. as i keep continuing to say its a good company but i have always found its stock price to high based on my analysis. so my opinion doesnt need to be classified as a troll and down ramper all the time by chief troll

[dr_]

see the trolls are out in force led by there leader couta .



well, real holder holding tightly since 2016. A2m 85% of the portfolio......



561.6%
85.21%

[couta1]

i told you i trade the intraday price now its a traders dream and i dont hold long term anymore. as i keep continuing to say its a good company but i have always found its stock price to high based on my analysis. so my opinion doesnt need to be classified as a troll and down ramper all the time by chief troll Well I'll leave you to spread your poison all over the place, I'm taking a week off cause I'm quite frankly fed up with the nonsense of it all.

[allfromacell]

Congrats to all holders :t_up:

[allfromacell]

see the trolls are out in force led by there leader couta .

i didnt say they missed ist half ebitda read it properly they downgraded second half ebitda

Did they? They had already flagged lower second half margins previously. Unless I'm missing something there is no downgrade.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/349023/317593.pdf

Looks like they will struggle to make eps of 50 cps for the year due to lower margins in 2H. Choose whatever PE you like where you see value.

[tomm]

i told you i trade the intraday price now its a traders dream and i dont hold long term anymore. as i keep continuing to say its a good company but i have always found its stock price to high based on my analysis. so my opinion doesnt need to be classified as a troll and down ramper all the time by chief troll
Wel bull.., my advice , put your money in the bank and earn interest , it a safe havens there . lol

[winner69]

Is Jaynes payout included in ‘discontinued operations’

[Gerald]

What does this mean -

Due to the increasing scale of our infant nutrition business, the Board considers it is now appropriate to assess participation in manufacturing capacity and capability to complement our existing supply chain relationships. Accordingly, we are presently evaluating opportunities to address this issue.

If Synlait loses Pokeno and heads into a hole ($3-$4) could well become a takeover opportunity for A2?

[Balance]

Is Jaynes payout included in ‘discontinued operations’

Good point! :confused:

[tomm]

If Synlait loses Pokeno and heads into a hole ($3-$4) could well become a takeover opportunity for A2?
Totally agree , I think A2 has already looking carefully into all aspects regarding to their cash in the bank.

[longy]

Pleasing result. Given uncertainties out there. Just in case we have forgotten this company has zero debt. :).

[Balance]

And folks, do remember - real market for ATM emerges ONLY when ASX opens.

[Beagle]

If Synlait loses Pokeno and heads into a hole ($3-$4) could well become a takeover opportunity for A2?

I would think that is quite likely.

[allfromacell]

Seems pretty noisy in here today Bull. :cool:

[sb9]

Did they? They had already flagged lower second half margins previously. Unless I'm missing something there is no downgrade.

Knowing GB, he is always cautious in his outlook. "Under promise, over deliver"

The results are a beat on every count no matter which way some people might want to spin it. And market will speak for the results, I mean ASX that is when it opens.

[bull....]

And folks, do remember - real market for ATM emerges ONLY when ASX opens.

exactly asx is where you watch for the real action and trading. but looks good at the moment for holders in NZ.

[sb9]

Was contemplating on locking in some profits on couple of my small trading parcels acquired around $14 mark, but change that thought and will lock them away along with my long term big parcels of 0.58c and $2 ones.

[allfromacell]

Geoff Babidge in the NBR this morning talking about the virus
“It’s very early days at this stage to have a full handle on the potential impacts,” said chief executive Geoff Babidge.However, “our product is one you’d expect to be more resilient. The reality is our revenue for the first two months [of 2020] is above our expectations which would indicate product is continuing to flow strongly through the [distribution] channels.”

*Copied from HC

[tomm]

Total revenue of $806.7 million, an increase of 31.6%
• EBITDA of $263.2 million, an increase of 20.5%
• Net profit after tax of $184.9 million, an increase of 21.1%
• Basic earnings per share (EPS) of 25.15 cents, an increase of 20.6%
• EBITDA to sales margin of 32.6%, better than expected
• Operating cash flow of $160.6 million and a closing cash balance of $618.4 million
• Marketing investment of $84.1 million targeting opportunities in China and the USA
• Group infant nutrition revenue of $659.2 million, up 33.1%
• Strong growth in China label infant nutrition, with sales doubling to $146.7 million and distributionexpanded to 18,300 stores
• USA milk revenue more than doubled and distribution expanded to 17,500 stores

[Leftfield]

I'm guessing you are happy Tomm !???

(going to be interesting to see where SP heads now.... over $17.00???)

[see weed]

This reminds me of 2 years ago. Apart from my long term holdings, scraped up some extra cash and bought an extra 21,000 the night before announcement. Next morning they went up $1.50 and sold them before Aussi opened. If I had waited, they went up about another $1 when Aussi opened. And another couple of dollars over the next week or so.:t_up:

[TobyPascoe92]

Rest of the market seems to have had a better sleep overnight too, perhaps led by this, resurgence day..?

[tomm]

I'm guessing you are happy Tomm !???

(going to be interesting to see where SP heads now.... over $17.00???)
If you sell then you are going to buy it again at some stage, and with this company as I stated before $15.20 will be history after today.

[sb9]

Courtesy of HC poster AlgoTrades:

In simple terms, a company called Yiheng Capital LLC have a $13m bet (Put Option) expiring tomorrow that A2M will be below 14 by close of trade...this doesn't include the premium they paid for the Option. So the stock price needs to be 14 minus whatever they paid for the Put just to breakeven. Refer to h00ts chalkboard for a detailed explanation of Theta burn and Black-Scholes modelling..."

Hmmm...wonder how this will play out today for them :eek2:

[tomm]

Courtesy of HC poster AlgoTrades:

In simple terms, a company called Yiheng Capital LLC have a $13m bet (Put Option) expiring tomorrow that A2M will be below 14 by close of trade...this doesn't include the premium they paid for the Option. So the stock price needs to be 14 minus whatever they paid for the Put just to breakeven. Refer to h00ts chalkboard for a detailed explanation of Theta burn and Black-Scholes modelling..."

Hmmm...wonder how this will play out today for them :eek2:
From that day the bird lost its voice and stop tweeting.

[tipsy]

Nice to see China and US both growing at around 100%. Good markets to crack!

[kiwijay]

Briefly at 17s before the Australians came in and brought it back down to their level :confused: ??

[bull....]

Briefly at 17s before the Australians came in and brought it back down to their level :confused: ??

fading it still over priced my opinion

[Muppett]

fading it still over priced my opinion

What price should it be?

[sb9]

Briefly at 17s before the Australians came in and brought it back down to their level :confused: ??

That's how the games are played on ASX, look at bigger picture over next few days..

[sb9]

What price should it be?

Good enough for him to close his short, can hear sounds of desperation lol

[bull....]

Good enough for him to close his short, can hear sounds of desperation lol

i dont gamble on announcements i said that at the start of the week. i do intraday. it was obvious fade at open on asx as people take there profits

[Gerald]

fading it still over priced my opinion

Plenty of other good investment oportunities out there for you.

11065

[sb9]

i dont gamble on announcements i said that at the start of the week. i do intraday. it was obvious fade at open on asx as people take there profits

Wait for post lunch action once analysts have done their valuations and put out recommendations..

[bull....]

Plenty of other good investment oportunities out there for you.

11065

yep that be me sleeping like a baby with my profits. only difference it took me 5 mins lol

[sb9]

yep that be me sleeping like a baby with my profits. only difference it took me 5 mins lol

Don't forget the taxman lol

[bull....]

Don't forget the taxman lol

no worries been a full time tax paying trader for 14 years now

[sb9]

no worries been a full time tax paying trader for 14 years now

Good for you..

[bull....]

Good for you..

yep . probably alot of people who believe they are investors but really are traders and pay no tax

[sb9]

yep . probably alot of people who believe they are investors but really are traders and pay no tax

different strokes for different people, i'm happy with my long term gain of over 2800% based on today's price..

[Ggcc]

yep . probably alot of people who believe they are investors but really are traders and pay no tax
I would agree with this statement.

[freddagg]

Don't forget the taxman lol

Tax is easy. Just trade a third more than you would if you weren't paying tax. There is no additional risk as the taxman is taking the risk on the extra third.

[bull....]

different strokes for different people, i'm happy with my long term gain of over 2800% based on today's price..

thatss the beauty of the markets everyone has the opportunity to win and be happy no matter what your style

[Oliver Mander]

Looking good to me. There are five things that are exciting here...
1) US growth continuing strongly - have to do some more work on assessing the EBITDA trends (loss of $30m this half) but the growth looks good...risk is still high, though, when the marketing investment being poured into it looks bigger than the revenue.
2) the statement relating to Jan-Feb 2020 in China being ABOVE expectations...a counter-cyclical to COVID-19???
3) "due to the increasing scale of our infant nutrition business, the Board considers it is now appropriate to assess participation in manufacturing capacity and capability to complement our existing supply chain relationships. Accordingly, we are presently evaluating opportunities to address this issue." = LOOK OUT SYNLAIT!!!!
4) ...and just to make that takeover a little bit easier they have $618m in the bank - otherwise known as >50% of total assets. Not a bad war chest.
5) long-term EBIT margins of 30% are actually higher than my own models (I had 29.7%). Yee-ha!

Happy long-term holder

[tomm]

THIS IS GEOFF BABIDGE CEO'S OF A2M'S SPEECH REGARDING ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS THIS MORNING !

The a2Milk Company says revenue generated in the first two months of the June half is ahead of expectations, partly driven by demand among Chinese families in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
"The reality is that those increased sales are a result of the impact of the coronavirus on a product such as ours, which is not discretionary. Where we clearly have a strong brand franchise, where people have a view as to the high quality of the product," said a2Milk chief executive Geoff Babidge.

The company could respond to the demand spike and sell its products direct into China and other channels such as the online and daigou channels, he said.
"We're also air-freighting product in to ensure we can meet demand," he said.

The fast growing dairy and infant formula company revealed the coronavirus-fuelled demand as it unveiled a 21.1 per cent jump in its first half net profit to $NZ184.9 million ($177.2 million).
A key driver of the result was a doubling in sales of China label infant formula products to $NZ146.7 million. Total revenue from China and other Asian regions also surged, by 76.7 per cent to $NZ317.2 million.We're delighted with the growth in our China business, a doubling of our China label sales compared to the prior period," Mr Babidge told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.

"That's as a result of a substantial uplift in capability in the size of the organisation, a strong focus on growing the mother and baby store footprint, the number of stores, obviously a result of increasing marketing activity.
"And also an outcome of the work done during the last 12 months in better understanding the consumers and their particular needs. And the best way to position our brand to capitalise on the market opportunities," he said.
The company, which is listed on both the New Zealand and Australian stock exchanges, also lifted its results in other markets and categories, with infant nutrition sales in Australia up 9.5 per cent to $NZ352 million.Total revenue for the group rose almost 32 per cent, to $NZ806.7 million, which was ahead of market consensus of $NZ773 million. Most of the company's revenue was generated by sales in the infant nutrition category, which rose 33.1 per cent to $NZ659.2 million.


Underlying profit came in at $NZ188.19 million, ahead of expectations among Morgans analysts of a $NZ178 million result.
"We are pleased with the results of our strategy execution and continue to be energised about our key products, core markets and growth outlook," the company said.
"With the benefit of the comprehensive work undertaken during 2019 to enhance our understanding of the consumer and sales channels in our core markets, we have continued the increased levels of investment in marketing and capability to execute our growth plan," it said.
Away from the fast-growing China market a2 more than doubled its sales in the United States, reaching total sales of $28 million. The company has a goal of generating $US100 million of annualised sales in the US. Australia/New Zealand revenue rose 10 per cent to $NZ460.2 million.
In a note to clients Citi analyst Sam Teeger said a2's statutory net profit "beat" was "largely driven by stronger than expected sales growth (+32%) and EBITDA margins (about 33 per cent) which exceeded guidance".


"We see a2 returning to its roots of rewarding investors with consistent earnings upgrades and, while also factoring in upside risk to 2H20, we see the stock likely to react positively," he said.

[see weed]

Wait for post lunch action once analysts have done their valuations and put out recommendations..
Yes, maybe a second wave of new shareholders buying in the next few days or weeks, pushing the sp up even further, with all the positive news to come out in tonights and tomorrows media outlets:t_up:. As for tax, which I pay little of, I transfer my profits into dividend striping. It works really well.

[tomm]

Wait till after lunch .....

[Leftfield]

Crikey what a day for Traders..... almost wish I was one!

ps did anyone notice that in the 'mature' fresh milk market of Australia A2's market share is now 11%.
A glimpse of the future for other markets IMHO.

[Ggcc]

Crikey what a day for Traders..... almost wish I was one!

ps did anyone notice that in the 'mature' fresh milk market of Australia A2's market share is now 11%.
A glimpse of the future for other markets IMHO.
I have seen a fifty minimum 50 cent split happen at least 3 times. Bull will be frothing at the mouth lol. Good on ya Bull, but not for me.

[tomm]

VWAP :$16.73 , current: $16.41.
Won't be long until it keep up.

[winner69]

VWAP :$16.73 , current: $16.41.
Won't be long until it keep up.

Thst VWAP means a lot eh.

[tomm]

Thst VWAP means a lot eh.
4.7% up for the day comparing with the market. Fantastic!

[bull....]

4.7% up for the day comparing with the market. Fantastic!

good day today for atm holders alright considering all the blood around.

[tomm]

Good to see Geoffrey Babidge on ABC Business.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2020-02-27/extended-interview-with-geoffrey-babidge/12008802?nw=0

It's rare to find a company with good news in a coronavirus world but A2 Milk says sales in January and February into China have exceeded expectations.
The infant formula producer has reported a 21% increase in half year profit to A$177 million, after doubling its sales into China and increasing its operations in the US.
Interim CEO Geoffrey Babidge speaks to Rachel.

[Leftfield]

Good to see Geoffrey Babidge on ABC Business.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2020-02-27/extended-interview-with-geoffrey-babidge/12008802?nw=0.

Holders may be interested in this commentary around the recent results presentation. Hear it here. (https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/A2M_HYR_270220.mp3)
While listening you will find it helpful to refer to the presentation documents here. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/349023/317593.pdf)

Must say the presentation is v impressive. Great to see Geoff back in charge and clearly doing so well surrounded by a very impressive management team.

In the Q & A session there was further comment on the ATM examining its capital expenditure into further production facilities. The following explanation given was (IMO)
- Unlikely that ATM will purchase outright a production facility
- More likely that ATM will pursue opportunities to work with others (buying strategic stakes in other producers.)
- key goal for ATM is to achieve diversification of its supply base
- Stressed that ATM is not seeking a substantial change in supply, rather just a step in the ongoing strategy.

After listening I'm more than happy to retain 50% of my portfolio in ATM. Great long term hold IMHO.

[tomm]

Holders may be interested in this commentary around the recent results presentation. Hear it here. (https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/A2M_HYR_270220.mp3)
While listening you will find it helpful to refer to the presentation documents here. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ATM/349023/317593.pdf)

Must say the presentation is v impressive. Great to see Geoff back in charge and clearly doing so well surrounded by a very impressive management team.

In the Q & A session there was further comment on the ATM examining its capital expenditure into further production facilities. The following explanation given was (IMO)
- Unlikely that ATM will purchase outright a production facility
- More likely that ATM will pursue opportunities to work with others (buying strategic stakes in other producers.)
- key goal for ATM is to achieve diversification of its supply base
- Stressed that ATM is not seeking a substantial change in supply, rather just a step in the ongoing strategy.

After listening I'm more than happy to retain 50% of my portfolio in ATM. Great long term hold IMHO.
Cash Base : $618.4 MILL
I love it. hahaha

[RGR367]

Maybe by a dollar or more. Bought some in 2 August for 1752, 12 August for 1590, 21 August 1495 and the other day for 1380 :t_down: I will chase it down farther as my overall cost is still below 4 bucks ..............................

Sometimes it pays practicing on your "catching knives" skill from time to time :) I might start looking when to sell these acquired "blunted knife shares" from today. Just love what real milk can give you.

[Mr Slothbear]

Few interesting take aways listening to the conference call

- consultancy fees should moderate over time, feoffs words for cut consultants down

- sounded very positive and frequently acknowledged work that jayne had done but almost never mentioned her by name. Also commended several of her hires including Race Strauss and Lisa from jetstar.

- their target is 100m revenue in the US which they have set as internal milestone. My best guess is this is where they believe the tipping point to profitibility lies.

[sb9]

Few interesting take aways listening to the conference call

- consultancy fees should moderate over time, feoffs words for cut consultants down

- sounded very positive and frequently acknowledged work that jayne had done but almost never mentioned her by name. Also commended several of her hires including Race Strauss and Lisa from jetstar.

- their target is 100m revenue in the US which they have set as internal milestone. My best guess is this is where they believe the tipping point to profitibility lies.

Agree with all those points...

A very good conf call with more than 40min dedicated to analysts questions. Solid performance and confidence from Management esp GB. He's a legend!!!.

And below are broker upgrades that came out from various outfits as sourced from HC:

Raised 10% to A$19.20 by Citi
Raised 15% to A$18.70 by Macquarie
Raised 8.8% to A$17.74 by UBS
CLSA - upgraded from A$13.30 to A$18 with "outperfrom" rating..

No wonder the sp is holding up so well in these rather interesting times...

[black knat]

Craig's upgrade to NZ$ 20
FB upgrade to NZ$ 18.50

[allfromacell]

On the call Peter Nathan mentioned he believes the virus has created some further distrust in local Chinese brands which has helped a2 milks strong Chinese demand for the first two calendar months.

I think management are being conservative when starting the overall net effect of this virus will could be negative or positive. After listening to the call and digesting the results I believe this black swan is really a bright white swan for us.

[Leftfield]

On the call Peter Nathan mentioned he believes the virus has created some further distrust in local Chinese brands which has helped a2 milks strong Chinese demand for the first two calendar months.

I think management are being conservative when starting the overall net effect of this virus will could be negative or positive. After listening to the call and digesting the results I believe this black swan is really a bright white swan for us.

Agree. Conservative guidance has always been a hallmark of Geoff and his team. Add to that their strong balance sheet ($800 mill cash pile) and skilled management team.....better than money in the bank IMHO.

[bull....]

Coronavirus and NZ's economy: Govt faces unpleasant trade-offs
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12312846

this is from Analysis by Shamubeel Eaqub

obviously a respected economist

Exports of forestry, meat and dairy will be hardest hit. But so will be many specialised exports, like infant formula and rock lobster

fits in with my thinking and geoff has set the secene for a downgrade later this year from his commentary

[dr_]

Coronavirus and NZ's economy: Govt faces unpleasant trade-offs


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12312846

this is from Analysis by Shamubeel Eaqub

obviously a respected economist

Exports of forestry, meat and dairy will be hardest hit. But so will be many specialised exports, like infant formula and rock lobster

fits in with my thinking and geoff has set the secene for a downgrade later this year from his commentary


Only fool listen to Shamubeel Eaqub..... 8yrs ago he was advising peoples not to buy houses as house market was going to crash.... he is muppet.

[bull....]

Only fool listen to Shamubeel Eaqub..... 8yrs ago he was advising peoples not to buy houses as house market was going to crash.... he is muppet.




lol obviously everyone make up there own mind but i respect his views everyone gets calls wrong

[tomm]

I am going to sell the rest of my holding.
I am actually worrying because there is a first case of coronavirus now in NZ , In others countries, they lock down the people who come back from the infected countries the moment they arrive at the airport UNLIKE New Zealand!
The greedy worrying about the cost of housing these people while impound them and hoping for a quickly over. They let them walking around in the country and just pickup the phone if someone calls, but seem it is not and IT IS NOT.
They are also welcoming 5k Chinese students into the country and only asking them to isolate them selves while in the country for the first 14 days only.

[forest]

[QUOTE=dr_;795222]Only fool listen to [B]Shamubeel Eaqub..... 8yrs ago he was advising peoples not to buy houses as house market was going to crash.... he is muppet.




Guess what dr, he bought a house in 2017. Shamubeel not listening to himself either. Best if nobody else does too. :)


:https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/94966044/shamubeel-eaqub-ive-bought-a-house-at-last

[tomm]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12312846
Sweeping statements about the coronavirus and its consequences are pointless. We simply do not know how the pandemic will unfold. But we can assume that 2020 is off to a very bad start and rather than a quick rebound, weakness extends towards a winter of discontent.

[tomm]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119921968/coronavirus-prime-minister-says-man-with-coronavirus-improving

This morning , Health officials have contacted 18 passengers seated near a person infected with coronavirus, but not all have responded.
WHAT A JOKE!

[Leftfield]

Crikey not only is coronavirus spreading..... so is BIG FONT disease.

Tomm may I suggest you take your scary scenarios (and BIG FONT) off the ATM thread and put them on the relevant coronavirus thread.... thank you!

[Cadalac123]

Calm down Tomm. You think it’s realistic that every single person who’s been exposed will get captured and magically prevent spread?

You realise people have been travelling in and out of New Zealand even before news headlines blew this out of proportion.

[tomm]

Calm down Tomm. You think it’s realistic that every single person who’s been exposed will get captured and magically prevent spread?

You realise people have been travelling in and out of New Zealand even before news headlines blew this out of proportion.
That is why we have the first case now.! From my thinking the NZ's weather and environment at the moment is very good to protect us from the virus. But we can't take it for granted.
Davies from A2M was talking about looking for another suppliers ( I am unsure about the A2 MIlk suppliers or Materials like: tins , labels....) seems , it is starting to bite.

[winner69]

Crikey tomm ....selling A2 after all the excitment you’ve been displaying about their greatness doesn’t seem to make much sense.

[Cadalac123]

Wow tomm tell me more about your broscience and how our environment is impacting how the virus acts

[tomm]

Crikey tomm ....selling A2 after all the excitment you’ve been displaying about their greatness doesn’t seem to make much sense.
I meant I am going to sell. I did sold on the day but thinking of selling the rest.
I am a big and long term of ATM< but facts are facts, I also suspects some of the big boys had the info's before hand on Friday in NZ , that was why Sp was suddenly dropped to as low as $15.56 from $16.40 within 1 hour when NZ open, then just luckily picked up by Ausie.

[couta1]

Lol I'm always selling A2 but then I'm always buying also.

[Blue Skies]

I meant I am going to sell. I did sold on the day but thinking of selling the rest.
I am a big and long term of ATM< but facts are facts, I also suspects some of the big boys had the info's before hand on Friday in NZ , that was why Sp was suddenly dropped to as low as $15.56 from $16.40 within 1 hour when NZ open, then just luckily picked up by Ausie.


Tomm, nothing has really changed from late last week. If it was a good buy last week, it probably still is, & vice versa.
I know it may have come as a tremendous shock to some when we found out a person with Coronavirus is in Auckland hospital, but for most people with half a brain that was not unexpected.
In fact for those who hadn't been paying attention, we'd even been told to expect it.

Dare I say it, those people in the supermarket panic buying things like bottled water & toilet paper probably weren't in the A stream.
Just remember to wash your hands frequently & avoid hugging other people too much, & you should be fine. :)

[dreamcatcher]

@tomm if you wish to sell ..............SELL first thing Monday morning without all this crap you have now started posting for the locals, that is unless you are SHORT and now seen all the large broker UPGRADES since Friday. A2 doing well in China and personally arranged $6000 over last month of IF from NZ Bonded Store to China as appears there is a shortage half a2 balance Aptamil. Would not wish to be SHORT currently on a2 .....babies need to be fed and believe Covid-19 has created further demand for SAFE branded foreign IF................. A2 may also be possible contender of Aus index inclusion replacing AMP

GS has joined the party with UPGRADED TP NZ$19.50..........A$18.70

[Baa_Baa]

1H as expected, a boomer. 2H punters need to very carefully read the comments. Take off the rose coloured spectacles and read it twice, thrice and then read it again. Uncertainty is around the corner, there is no way ATM is immune to the trade disturbances affecting its second largest market. Now Korea as well. It just can’t have zero effect on trade. Imo.

[Ggcc]

1H as expected, a boomer. 2H punters need to very carefully read the comments. Take off the rose coloured spectacles and read it twice, thrice and then read it again. Uncertainty is around the corner, there is no way ATM is immune to the trade disturbances affecting its second largest market. Now Korea as well. It just can’t have zero effect on trade. Imo.

I agree to be cautious even if everything looks wonderful. Look at SUM who people mentioned was a growth company. After their result I am happy to have reduced. I won’t buy more of ATM until their next update, but then I won’t sell any either. If you needed the cash I would suggest get out of the market for now, otherwise in two years time all of the panic about this virus will be forgotten about.

[longy]

Are we fooling ourselves to think that the virus is not coming to NZ? Potentially 60% of world population will get it eventually. But please so research and really look at the stats. It isn't as bad as it looks. However, that not to say that all people will be fine... sadly some won't make it but most will recover from it. Back to to the market... it isn't mostly driven by facts any way and I agree that this virus thing too will pass.

[longy]

I am impressed by Stuff to published the following article, it is brief but informative.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/119877730/why-new-zealands-own-a2-milk-company-is-so-good

[winner69]

I am impressed by Stuff to published the following article, it is brief but informative.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/119877730/why-new-zealands-own-a2-milk-company-is-so-good



Saw a tee shirt the other day with the message ‘Is that true, or did you read it on Stuff’

[longy]

Saw a tee shirt the other day with the message ‘Is that true, or did you read it on Stuff’

I have asked that question myself too... Is that true since it is on Stuff? LoL

[bull....]

brokers upgrading and sunstantial s/h mitsui selling

[longy]

To be precise Bull. 1.235%!!!

[Blue Horseshoe]

New study associates intake of dairy milk with greater risk of breast cancer.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200225101323.htm

[couta1]

Holding up well today for a highly volatile stock, this thing will fly once this virus thing subsides. PS-I note A2 gave the middle finger to the Coronavirus today on the ASX.